Search results

Demographic problems are among the most acute in modern Russia. This is evidenced by the great attention paid to them by the authorities, the media, and public organizations. Demographic science uses its own methods to find the ways to solve the existing problems. And in Russia the coverage of demographic problems in scientific publications has a special perspective, since on the one hand, specialists are professionally versed in the topic and see nuances incomprehensible "from the outside". On the other hand, many researchers in the field of social sciences are characterized by a critical approach to any actions of the authorities, and the existing achievements may be downplayed, as they do not reach the final goal. In particular, firstly, the mortality rate in Russia has been decreasing for almost all the years of the 21st century, but it is still very high as compared to most European countries. Secondly, the birth rate in the country is low by world standards, but it is higher than in most European countries. As a result, these facts are interpreted in different ways both in a positive and in a negative way. At the same time, all demographic projections indicate that in the coming decades the natural decline of the Russian population will continue. And to solve this problem, it is necessary to search for new approaches, measures of demographic policy that is impossible without combined efforts of all domestic demographers, despite theoretical, practical and other differences. The national project "Demography" and related programs ("Health Care" and others) can solve problems only subject to necessary scientific development of the proposed measures and their adaptation to the real Russian conditions.

-

The article presents an analysis of the demographic problems of the priority geostrategic territories of the Russian Far East. Such territories are characterized in the «Strategy for Spatial Development of the Russian Federation to 2025» as having a particular significance for development of the country as a whole, but differing in special conditions of the population life and functioning of the economy due to their geographical location. The main problem of the Far East geostrategic territories of the country is depopulation, which is both a factor that slows down the socio-economic development and an indicator that characterizes the low performance of this development. Components of the population dynamics that lead to its decline — natural growth and migration flows — are of particular importance. The article identifies multidirectional nature of the main demographic processes — natural growth is mainly combined with migration outflow of the population. The regions of the Far East that managed to increase their population in 2010-2018 with this combination are the Republics of Sakha (Yakutia) and Buryatia. Specific features of the Far East priority geostrategic territories in comparison with Russia as a whole are shown. The analysis is based on the «Municipal Russia» database, which summarizes the demographic statistics for all urban districts and municipal districts of the country, including those located on the priority geostrategic territories. As a result of the analysis of population dynamics, we have identified directions that can lead to an improvement in the demographic situation in the priority geostrategic territories of the Far East, and, accordingly, will contribute to the socio-economic development of not only these territories, but also the entire Russian Federation.

The article analyzes population data by federal districts, subjects and municipalities of the Russian Federation, obtained from two different official sources of Rosstat for close dates: data from the current population registration as of January 1, 2022 and data from the All-Russian Population Census of 2020, the control point of which was October 1, 2021. Since population size changes rather slowly, theoretically these data should not differ significantly. In fact, it has turned out that the population size across the country, according to various data, differs by more than 1% (by 1.6 million people in the direction of the census data). The lower the level of administrative division, the greater the differences. At the level of some municipalities of the Russian Federation, the differences make almost 2 times. Moreover, with approximately equal frequency, there are both municipalities where, according to the census, the population is greater than according to the current population registration, and with the opposite situation. The article identifies the administrative units of the country where the differences between the census data and the current population registration are the largest, and the causes of the differences in one direction or another. The largest "overweight" of the population in favor of the census was found in the municipalities of the Central Federal District (especially in the Moscow urban agglomeration), and the maximum "shortage" of the population compared to the current accounting data was in the Far Eastern and Siberian Federal Districts.

The demographic problem is one of the most acute in modern Russia, especially at the level of municipalities, most of which have experienced depopulation since 2010, when the country's population as a whole was increasing. Numerous actions are being taken to solve the demographic problem, and further expansion of their list is quite justified, since in the future the situation may become even worse. At the same time, the issue of the impact on the demographic situation of the municipal-territorial transformations carried out in the regions of the country, which are mainly aimed at abolishing or reducing the number of second-level municipalities — urban and rural settlements, has not been investigated. Meanwhile, public service institutions in the fields of education, healthcare and others may disappear, that negatively affects the living conditions of the population and does not contribute to solving demographic problems. Other consequences of municipal-territorial transformations also have not been studied. This article shows that the municipalities of the first level (urban districts, municipal areas, municipal districts), which in the period 2010-2020 were covered by transformations, are characterized by poorer demographic dynamics (less increase or more decrease in population) compared to other municipalities in the same subjects of the Russian Federation, which were not covered by such transformations. Municipalities with and without transformations also differ in terms of natural and migration movement of the population. It can be concluded that municipal-territorial transformations aimed at simplifying the municipal structure in the country may solve some momentary difficulties, in particular, reduce budget expenditures. But in the future, they may have negative consequences for solving Russia's main problems, including preserving and increasing the country's population.

The article considers the main trends in the population change of the North Caucasian Federal District over the past decade as one of the priority geostrategic territories identified within the implementation of the "Strategy for Spatial Development of Russia up to 2025". In general, for the period 2010-2022 the population has not changed much on the Russian territory, although depopulation is observed in most regions of the country. Against this background, the North Caucasus is distinguished by a relatively favorable demographic situation. But even in this territory, demographic problems that are characteristic of the country as a whole are increasingly manifested. Since the 2010 population census, the population in the republics of Karachay-Cherkess and North Ossetia-Alania has decreased, that was not been observed over the previous decades. And the population of the Stavropol Krai during the period under review grew mainly due to the positive balance of population migration from other regions of Russia, including to a large extent from the neighboring North Caucasian republics. Analysis of the population dynamics was carried out taking into account the processes in fertility, mortality and migration mobility of the population. The situation is considered at the level of regions-subjects of the Russian Federation and municipalities (urban districts and municipal districts). This allows us to better understand the causes of the current situation and make some adjustments to Russia's demographic and migration policy. Improving the demographic situation in the priority geostrategic territories, including the North Caucasus, will contribute to the socio-economic development not only of these territories, but of the entire Russian Federation.

The article presents analysis of the trends in the demographic development of the regions of the Russian Far East and the processes that directly and indirectly determine preservation of the human potential of the macroregion. Multidimensional analysis allows us to assess the objective opportunities for successful development of both the macroregion as a whole and its separate territories, including those within the framework of the current State national programs. The dynamics of population in combination with its low density and shortage of labor resources significantly affect the socio-economic development of the regions in the district. Socio-demographic indicators (migration balance, healthy life expectancy, share of citizens adhering to a healthy lifestyle) and socio-economic indicators (dynamics of monetary income / consumer spending and investment in fixed assets per capita) allowed us to identify the main trends of recent years in the development of the Far East regions. It was found out that the majority of regions belong to the most depopulating territories in Russia with critical indicators of the level of self-preservation behavior, with the current dangerous trend of migration losses (primarily in the working-age population), with low values of the life expectancy index. It is necessary to conduct a differentiated economic policy in the macroregion. The characteristics of differentiation of the situation in the macroregion, shown in the article, may contribute to development of a set of tools to deal with the situation in each region of the Far East. Since the main cause of the unfavorable demographic trends is the lag of the real living standards of the population behind the national average, the necessary measures of administrative action are: financing of social infrastructure in the macroregion; ensuring high social standards for families of professionals; providing a competitive level of education and conditions for development of the system of training and retention of personnel; effective functioning of regional economic clusters; development of small and medium-sized businesses.

In the situation of population growth in Russia as a whole, during the period 2010–2017 in most municipalities was observed depopulation, and in some cases at a significant rate. In 2018 population decline was in Russia as a whole. The positive balance of external migration did not cover the natural decline of the population that will increase in the coming years. In these circumstances, identification of areas with a stable population becomes an independent urgent task.Analysis of the situation in such areas, especially at the level of municipalities, can help to identify methods of weakening or even overcoming the general negative dynamics of demographic processes in the country.The article highlights the municipalities of the first order (urban and municipal districts), which in the period after the 2010 census had a stable population. The main factors due to which this was achieved were identified. The distribution of municipalities with a stable population across the territory of the country is shown. Separately is given the analysis of natural movement with the account of birth and mortality rates, as well as the balance of migration for selected municipalities with a stable population. It is shown that modern Russia is characterized by both negative (in most cases) and positive population dynamics. At the same time, demographic stability, being a prerequisite for a sustainable socio-economic development, is quite rare and even over a relatively short time interval can turn into a significant negative (as a rule) or positive (in some cases) dynamics.

The article presents an analysis of the dynamics of the population of the priority geostrategic territories of the Russian Federation. They are highlighted in the "Strategy for the Spatial Development of the Russian Federation until 2025" as territories that are of particular importance for the development of the country as a whole and are distinguished at the same time by special life conditions and the functioning of the economy due to their geographical location. Population dynamics for such territories is both a factor determining socio-economic development and an indicator of the effectiveness of this development. The components of the population dynamics - natural growth and migration flows - are of particular importance. The article describes all four groups of priority geostrategic territories of Russia - isolated from the main territory of the country (exclaves), located in the North Caucasus and the Far East, in the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation. For each group, trends in population dynamics have been identified since the 2010 census, taking into account the components of natural growth and migration. The multidirectional aspect of the main demographic processes in the priority geostrategic territories of the country is revealed - natural growth is combined with the migration outflow of the population, and the migration inflow - with natural decline. At the same time, in the exclave and North Caucasian territories, the population is growing, and in the Far Eastern and Arctic territories it is decreasing. The features of both groups of priority geostrategic territories in comparison with Russia as a whole and of individual constituent entities of the Russian Federation and municipalities within groups of territories are shown. The latter became possible due to the use of the database "Municipal Russia", that summarises demographic statistics for all urban districts and municipal areas of the country, including those located in priority geostrategic territories. As a result of the analysis of the population dynamics, directions have been identified that can lead to an improvement in the demographic situation in the priority geostrategic territories of the country, and, accordingly, will contribute to the socio-economic development of not only these territories, but the entire Russian Federation

The article considers the main indicators of demographic development of the Russian Federation in recent years in connection with the level of development of social infrastructure. It is shown that the demographic situation in the country is deteriorating, that is due to both subjective and objective reasons. Among the objective reasons, the main one is the change in the age structure of the population, which is expressed in a sharp decrease in the number of women in fertile age. This is due to the acute demographic crisis of the 1990s, «demographic waves» generated by the Great Patriotic War, and other factors. Among the subjective causes of the decline in birth rate, the article highlights the general patterns of reduction in the number of children in families as the level of socio-economic development increases, which are characteristic of all countries of European culture. In particular, the reduction in the number of children is facilitated by such factors as reduction in the share of officially registered families, increase in child support costs, and the financial difficultiesfaced by families with children during economic crises and stagnation. All these cases are typical for regions of the Russian Federation in recent years. Development of social infrastructure — education, healthcare, culture, sports, and other similar systems — could improve the demographic situation in Russia. Unfortunately, in recent years, such systems have been degrading rather than developing in Russia. This is facilitated by the system of statistical reporting that does not reflect the actual situation. The article proposes approaches that could overcome this shortcoming of the present statistical reporting system, thereby contributing to the demographic development of the modern Russian Federation.

The article discusses topical issues related to the current trends in the field of lending to population in Russia. The purpose of the work is to identify possible risks of individuals' actions in the market of credit services on the basis of analysis of statistical and sociological data. Based on the general scientific dialectic approaches used by the authors, the article shows dynamics of growth in the banks' loan portfolio, growth in lending volumes (banks and microfinance organizations), as well as households' debt from 2013 to 2019 in rubles and foreign currency (in general and in mortgages). Russian macro-regions are ranked by absolute indicator of debt and by its growth rate. Opportunities and risks have been identified for borrowers wishing to take advantage of the benefits provided by the State effective from April 2020 (refinancing, credit holidays). There were assessed the measures applied by the State, in particular, credit holidays for individuals and restrictions for banks in issuing loans through introduction of a mandatory debt load indicator, which will contribute to improvement of the current situation with huge debt and to reduction of social risks. Although in the long run — in terms of the overall impact on the country's economy — a reduction in public borrowing may reduce the contribution of consumer credit to economic growth and slow it down. It is concluded that despite the measures taken by the State, the existing level of the population borrowing is a great danger due to the reduction of income as the economic consequence of the coronavirus pandemic.