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Absent vaccines and pharmaceutical interventions, the only tool available to mitigate its demographic effects is some measure of physical distancing, to reduce contagion by breaking social and economic contacts. Policy makers must balance the positive health effects of strong distancing measures, such as lockdowns, against their economic costs, especially the burdens imposed on low income and food insecure households. The distancing measures deployed by South Africa impose large economic costs and have negative implications for the factor distribution of income. Labor with low education levels are much more strongly affected than labor with secondary or tertiary education. As a result, households with low levels of educational attainment and high dependence on labor income would experience an enormous real income shock that would clearly jeopardize the food security of these households. However, in South Africa, total incomes for low income households are significantly insulated by government transfer payments. From public health, income distribution and food security perspectives, the remarkably rapid and severe shocks imposed because of Covid-19 illustrate the value of having in place transfer policies that support vulnerable households in the event of 'black swan' type shocks.

This paper reports 'first pass' estimates of the costs of the lock-down implemented by the South African government beginning on 27 March 2020. It also presents a series of recovery scenarios. Four channels by which a lockdown and other efforts are expected to influence economic activity are distinguished. In total, these lockdown measures have profound economic implications. The implications of the pandemic in the rest of the world, and hence on demand for South Africa's export, are not as large as the effects of the domestic lockdown but are still very large by any normal measure. In terms of recovery, the 'Quick' recovery scenario results in a GDP decline of about 5 per cent by the end of 2020—an economic outcome that would have been considered catastrophically bad a little more than one month ago. Persistent effects of the Covid-19 would bring even worse outcomes for GDP in line with the 'Slow' and 'Long' recovery scenarios. ; Non-PR ; IFPRI5; CRP2; 1 Fostering Climate-Resilient and Sustainable Food Supply; 5 Strengthening Institutions and Governance; SA-TIED; COVID-19 Measuring Impacts and Prioritizing Policies for Recovery ; EPTD; DGO; PIM ; 37 pages ; CGIAR Research Programs on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM)

Shaping markets through competition and economic regulation is at the heart of addressing the development challenges facing countries in southern Africa. The contributors to 'Competition Law And Economic Regulation: Addressing Market Power In Southern Africa' critically assess the efficacy of the competition and economic regulation frameworks, including the impact of a number of the regional competition authorities in a range of sectors throughout southern Africa. Featuring academics as well as practitioners in the field, the book addresses issues common to southern African countries, where markets are small and concentrated, with particularly high barriers to entry, and where the resources to enforce legislation against anti-competitive conduct are limited. What is needed, the contributors argue, is an understanding of competition and regional integration as part of an inclusive growth agenda for Africa. By examining competition and regulation in a single framework, and viewing this within the southern African experience, this volume adds new perspectives to the global competition literature. It is an essential reference tool and will be of great interest to policymakers and regulators, as well as the rapidly growing ecosystem of legal practitioners and economists engaged in the field.