Tactics are the part of the military problem solving, which attempts to address situations that arise in a concrete context and in a specific geographical area. It is about learning to perceive both the more stable geographical conditions in the working area as well as taking into consideration the effects of climate and weather and how the squad and their systems are affected and how an opponent could try to exploit these conditions and turn them to his advantage. The idea in tactical training is therefore to be able to master both the battlefield environment with its limitations and possibilities and the combat that is conducted there. Friction is used as a concept in several discussions about military activities. The geography with its sometimes channelling terrain and various landscape elements can constitute serious obstacles in trying to carry out all the tasks and abilities expected of a unit. Geography, Climate and Weather can thus be regarded as frictions in a military operation. This should also be possible to train in simulators and systems for war gaming. ; "Utveckling av en taktiksimulator för träning och studium av taktiskt tänkande i markarenan"
An integrating approach, including knowledge about whole systems of processes, is essential in order to reach both development and environmental protection goals. In this thesis Geographical Information Systems (GIS) are suggested as a tool to realise such integrated models. The main hypothesis in this work is that several natural technical and social systems that share a time-space can be compared and analysed in a GIS. My first objective was to analyze how GIS can support research, planning, and, more specifically, bring a broad scattering of competence together in an interdisciplinary process. In this process GIS was ivestigated as a tool to achieve models that give us a better overview of a problem, a better understanding for the processes involved, aid in foreseeing conflicts between interests, find ecological limits and assist in choosing countermeasures and monitor the result of different programs. The second objective concerns the requirement that models should be comparable and possible to include in other models and that they can be communicated to planners, politicians and the public. For this reason the possibilities to communicate the result and model components of multidimensional and multi-temporal data are investigated. Four examples on the possibilities and problems when using GIS in interdisciplinary studies are presented. In the examples, water plays a central role as a component in questions about development, management and environmental impact. The first articles focus on non-point source pollutants as a problem under growing attention when the big industrial and municipal point sources are brought under control. To manage non-point source pollutants, detailed knowledge about local conditions is required to facilitate precise advices on land use. To estimate the flow of metals and N(itrogen) in an area it is important to identify the soil moisture. Soil moisture changes over time but also significantly in the landscape according to several factors. Here a method is presented that calculate soil moisture over large areas. Man as a hydrologie factor has to be assessed to also understand the relative importance of anthropogen processes. To offer a supplement to direct measurements and add anthropogen factors, a GIS model is presented that takes soil-type, topography, vegetation, land-use, agricultural drainage and relative position in the watershed into account. A method to analyse and visualise development over time and space in the same model is presented in the last empirical study. The development of agricultural drainage can be discussed as a product of several forces here analyzed together and visualized with help of colour coded "Hyper pixels" and maps. Finally a discussion concerning the physiological and psychological possibilities to communicate multidimensional phenomena with the help of pictures and maps is held. The main conclusions in this theses are that GIS offer the possibilities to develop distributed models, e.g., models that calculate effects from a vide range of factors in larger areas and with a much higher spatial resolution than has been possible earlier. GIS also offer a possibility to integrate and communicate information from different disciplines to scientists, decision makers and the public. ; Diss. (sammanfattning) Umeå : Umeå universitet, 1993, härtill 6 uppsatser. ; digitalisering@umu
Abstract The clearance of unexploded ordnance (UXO) and other explosive remnants of war (ERW) containing shaped charge warheads poses a particular technical hazard to consider for explosive ordnance disposal (EOD) personnel. The wide use of light anti-tank weapons, such as rocket propelled grenades and the scattering of sub-munitions in different conflict areas have made the clearance of shaped charge ammunition a frequent task. However, unlike other hazards, for shaped charges, EOD personnel lack adequate means for the establishment of the maximum hazardous area and for the design of measures for hazard confinement against the shaped charge effect. In this article two different models are suggested, which together give guidance for protective measures during clearance of shaped charge ammunition. The development of these models is based on their military utility, by consideration of the limited information availability, the short time frames, the working methods and the technology level that are characteristic for EOD operations. The two suggested models are developed further into a complete set of design rules for protective measures, giving a versatile tool to replace today´s rough estimates and guesswork, in these safety-related decisions.
The clearance of unexploded ordnance (UXO) and other explosive remnants of war (ERW) containing shaped charge warheads poses a particular technical hazard to consider for explosive ordnance disposal (EOD) personnel. The wide use of light anti-tank weapons, such as rocket propelled grenades and the scattering of sub-munitions in different conflict areas have made the clearance of shaped charge ammunition a frequent task. However, unlike other hazards, for shaped charges, EOD personnel lack adequate means for the establishment of the maximum hazardous area and for the design of measures for hazard confinement against the shaped charge effect. In this article two different models are suggested, which together give guidance for protective measures during clearance of shaped charge ammunition. The development of these models is based on their military utility, by consideration of the limited information availability, the short time frames, the working methods and the technology level that are characteristic for EOD operations. The two suggested models are developed further into a complete set of design rules for protective measures, giving a versatile tool to replace today´s rough estimates and guesswork, in these safety-related decisions.
Ten technology forecast reports from the Fraunhofer Institute have been reviewed by staff at the Department of Military-Technology at the Swedish National Defence College (Note that there probably are other technology areas, equally interesting, but not included in this study). The task given by FMV was to assess the military utility of the chosen technologies in a time frame from 2025 to 2030, from a SwAF viewpoint. The method used was first to make a summary of each forecast report. The technology was then put into one or more scenarios that are assessed to be the best in order to show possible utility as well as possibilities and drawbacks of the technology. Based on a SWOT-analysis, the contribution to SwAF capabilities and the cost in terms of acquisition, C2 footprint, logistic footprint, doctrine/TTP, training, facilities and R&D were assessed. Conclusions regarding the military utility of the technology were drawn. We introduce our definition of military utility as being activities that efficiently and with the lowest cost in terms of lives and materiel lead to fulfilment of the mission objectives. The technologies were grouped in three classes; technologies with a significant potential, with uncertain potential and with negligible potential. The following technologies were assessed to have a significant potential for military utility; Augmented Reality Nano air vehicles Solid State Laser weapons In the scenarios studied, Augmented Reality (AR) is assessed to have a positive impact on several SwAF capabilities, especially for C2 and intelligence. AR is a relatively mature technology, applicable in many different branches. There are examples where AR is already applied with great success, e.g. Head-Up-Displays, HUD. The technology has proven its value. However, there are well known drawbacks to the technology such as weaknesses regarding models, increased weight for dismounted soldiers, power consumption etc. There is also a risk that personnel will have problems solving their tasks when AR systems fail, not being used to fighting without supporting systems. Nano air vehicles (NAV's) have been assessed to contribute to a large range of capabilities, primarily intelligence. Their lifecycle cost has been assessed to be low, since development in this area is commercially driven, bringing down acquisition costs. Also, FAA has decided to allow NAV's in controlled air space from 2015, which is expected to lead to an increase in civilian use of NAV's. The technology is relatively mature even though there are obstacles concerning suitable materials, energy efficient propulsion systems as well as miniaturized microprocessors and software to control them. In the scenario studied, High Energy Solid State Lasers are assessed to have a positive impact on SwAF capabilities to engage targets on surface and in the air. The technology can be used to protect vessels on the surface and thereby increase survivability. The development of SSL in the given timeframe is expected to lower cost per shot and avoid the environmental problems with use of chemical lasers. Neighbouring military powers are expected to use laser weapons in the future, therefore SwAF should monitor the development of the laser weapons technology and develop and purchase adequate countermeasures. The following technologies were assessed to have uncertain potential for military utility; Metamaterial cloaking Electromagnetic gun Small satellites Ultra-violet communication Metamaterial cloaking, if realisable in the future, is assessed to be firstly implemented in the acoustic spectrum, since manufacturing of small structured cloaks for the shorter wavelengths in the optic and radar spectra is believed to be more difficult. Cloaking of submarines is primarily assessed to increase the survivability against torpedoes having active sonar. The use of cloaked mines could pose a deterring threat, even to advanced amphibious operations against Sweden. The technological development in this area should be closely monitored and compared to existing, maturing techniques for countermeasures and for the development of broad spectrum active torpedoes. The greatest concern is that cloaking will have negative impact on submarine manoeuvrability. The electro-thermal chemical (ETC) gun seems to be a first step towards a fully electrical gun such as the rail-gun or the coil-gun. The fully electrical guns have been a work in progress for some decades and there are still remaining challenges both concerning electrical power supply and design materials. When or if, they will be operational is difficult to say. The military utility of small satellites is disputed, despite an assessed contribution to several of the SwAF capabilities. The main reason for this is that there seems to be other alternatives which provide the desired capabilities, at a lower cost. Furthermore, the realisability and performance of small productionline manufactured nanosatellites is uncertain. However the scenario has shown that there are benefits to the military utility not met by other resources, e.g. the capability to perform surveillance and reconnaissance in operational areas globally without risking violation of the territorial integrity of other states or the lives of military personnel. Since there is a great interest in the technology area and several programmes are ongoing internationally the knowledgebase is assessed to be significantly better in a five year period. Also, the Swedish in depth study of space exploitation is soon to report. Ultra-violet communication has uncertain potential for military utility within the period, but the technology is assessed to have a positive impact on SwAF capability to maintain communications. The theoretical understanding of the area is low It is therefore uncertain if systems can be realized in the time frame. However, if commercial applications are developed, the prospect of military applications might change. In that case UV-communication could be a complement to RF- communication but is not foreseen to replace it. The following technologies were assessed to have negligible potential for military utility; Biomimetic unmanned underwater vehicles (UUV) Automated behaviour Analysis Evolutionary Robotics Biomimetic UUV's could be used for covert surveillance and inconspicuous naval reconnaissance missions at sea or in amphibious missions. Even though the report focuses on fishlike propulsion, the military utility of UUV's is assessed to be mostly dependent on the development of advanced automation and learning systems. As of now, we assess other existing technologies as being preferable due to lower cost and less complexity. The performance of UUV's needed for SwAF capabilities are assessed to be far off into the future. Simpler UUV systems could however be used by potential adversaries for monitoring our own base areas and hence the development should be monitored from a protection point of view. Automated behaviour analysis may be of some relevance for increased security screening and surveillance. The primary military utility of the technology will however probably be for international activities and to a lesser extent for increased base security in Sweden. Generally the main applications for this kind of technology are assessed to be for civilian use in public spaces and close to high value areas like airports, important official buildings and other similar objects. Evolutionary Robotics, here restricted to the sub domain Advanced Robotics, has uncertain potential for military utility within the period. In the scenarios studied the technology is assessed to have a positive impact on a broad range of SwAF capabilities. The area is large and inconsistent comprising sub areas that are assessed to have significant potential, but also those that are believed to have negligible potential or where technological obstacles might retard the development. Our evaluation of the used method shows that there is a risk that the assessment is biased by the participating experts' presumptions and experiences from their own field of research. The scenarios that were chosen do not cover all possible aspects of the technology and their possible contribution to operational capabilities. It should be stressed that we have assessed the ten technologies' military utility in the presented scenarios, not the technology itself. The chosen definition of military utility clearly affects the result of the study. The definition is believed to be good enough for this report, but could be further elaborated in the future. The greatest value of the method used is its simplicity, cost effectiveness and the trade off that it promotes learning within the working group. The composition of the working group and the methodology used is believed to provide for a broad and balanced coverage of the technologies under study.
Four technology forecast reports from the Fraunhofer Institute have been reviewed by staff at the Department of Military-Technology at the Swedish National Defence College. The task given by the Swedish Defence Material Administration, FMV, was to assess the military utility of the given technologies in a time frame to 2040, from a Swedish Armed Forces (SwAF) point of view. We assess the military utility of a certain technology as its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, based on identified relevant scenarios. Since a new capability catalogue is under development at the SwAF Headquarters, we will only present general assessments of the capability impact from the technologies under study. The technologies were grouped in three classes; technologies with potentially significant, uncertain or negligible military utility. The classification uncertain is given for technologies that are difficult to put in the two other classes, however it is not because the technology readiness level (TRL) is not reached by 2040. The following technologies were assessed to have a potential for significant military utility; Kinodynamic motion planning This technology is a prerequisite for reaching full autonomy of highly agile unmanned systems and is probably a logical, evolutionary way to go forward. It will affect most SwAF capabilities through enhanced mobility. This technology should be studied by the SwAF, preferably within all operational environments. Bio-inspired Adaptive Camouflage Surfaces "Bio-inspired camouflage" should be viewed in a broad multispectral perspective involving design requirements for low contrast in the visual- and IR-spectrum as well as, for most applications, low reflectivity in the radar-band. There is an ongoing duel between sensor development and camouflage systems and our assessment is that the fewer and more valuable platforms we have, we will need better camouflage performance in order to maintain low probability of detection and short detection distances for an adversary, at least if faced with a technologically mature adversary. Our overall assessment is that bio-inspired adaptive camouflage systems have significant potential for military utility. UCAV If the idea that UCAV are superior in air combat is realizable, we may be facing a paradigm shift of the same magnitude as that which airborne radar or air-to-air missiles introduced. Thus, UCAV are deemed to have potential for significant military utility in future air operations even though it is, at present, hard to predict how they will be used to maximize their military utility. The following technology was assessed to have uncertain military utility; Bulk metallic glass (BMG) If BMG innovations prove to form a new performance step in armour and weapons development, it will from a Swedish perspective be crucial to take part in that development or else take the risk of being inferior on the battlefield. Given the many uncertainties concerning production and applications, we assess BMGs to have uncertain potential for military utility in 2040. However, the SwAF should monitor the development and applications in this area. None of the studied technologies were found to have negligible military utility. . The method used in this technology forecast report was to assign each Fraunhofer report to one reviewer in the working group. First, a summary of each forecast report was made. The Fraunhofer assessment of technical readiness level (TRL) in 2030-40 was held to be correct. The technology was then put into one or more scenarios that were assessed to be suitable in order to assess the military utility as well as indicate possibilities and drawbacks of the technologies. Based on a SWOT-analysis, the contribution to SwAF capabilities and the cost in terms of acquisition, C2 footprint, logistic footprint, doctrine/TTP, training, facilities and R&D were assessed. Finally, conclusions regarding the potential military utility of the technology were drawn. The chosen definition of military utility clearly affects the result of the study. The definition (the military utility of a certain technology is its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, within identified relevant scenarios) is the same that was used in the Technology Forecast 2013. It is believed to be good enough for this report, but could be further elaborated in the future. An article that in depth presents our concept of military utility has been elaborated at the department.1 Our evaluation of the method used shows that there is a risk that the assessment is biased by the participating experts' presumptions and experiences from their own field of research. The scenarios that were chosen do not cover all aspects of the technology and their possible contribution to operational capabilities. It should be stressed that we have assessed the four technologies' potential military utility within the specific presented scenarios, not the technology itself. When additional results have been found in the analysis this is mentioned. The greatest value of the method used is its simplicity, cost effectiveness and the tradeoff that it promotes learning within the working group. The composition of the working group and the methodology used is believed to provide for a broad and balanced coverage of the technologies under study. This report provides executive summaries of the Fraunhofer and Recorded Future reports and the intention is to help the SwAF Headquarter to evaluate the military utility of emerging technologies within identified relevant scenarios. Overall, the quality of the Fraunhofer reports is considered to be balanced and of a high level of critical analysis regarding technology development. These reports are in line with our task to evaluate the military utility of the emerging technologies. We appreciate that the Department of Military Technology at SNDC this time has been involved in the early phase of the Technology Forecast process.
Two technology forecast reports from the Fraunhofer Institute, three reports from the Swedish Defence Research Institute (FOI) and two publications from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) have been reviewed by staff at the Military-Technology Division at the Swedish Defence University (SEDU). The task given by the Defence Material Administration (FMV) was to assess the military utility of the given technologies in a time frame to up 2040, from a Swedish Armed Forces (SwAF) perspective. In the review we assessed the military utility of certain technologies as possible contributions to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, based on identified and relevant scenarios. Because a new capability catalogue is under development at the SwAF Headquarters, this report only presents general assessments of the capability impact of the technologies studied. The technologies were grouped into four classes: potentially significant, moderate, negligible, or uncertain military utility. The classification uncertain military utility was given to technologies that are difficult to put in the other three classes, it was not because the technology readiness level (TRL) will not bereached by 2040. The following technologies were assessed to have the potential for significant military utility: - Nanocarbons for photonic applications The following technologies were assessed to have a potential for moderate military utility; - Internet of things (IoT) - Materials and technologies for protection against chemical agents The following technologies were assessed to have uncertain military utility; - Post-quantum cryptography - New applications for hyperspectral image analysis for chemical and biological agents No technology was found to have negligible military utility. The method used in this technology forecast report was to assign each report to one reviewer in the working group. Firstly, each forecast report was summarized. The Fraunhofer assessment of technical readiness level (TRL) in the time period was held to be correct. Each technology was then put into one or more scenarios that were assessed to be suitable for assessing the military utility as well as indicating any possibilities and drawbacks. Based on a SWOTanalysis, the assessed contributions to the fundamental capabilities, and to the factors DOTMPLFI (Doctrine, Organization, Training, Materiel, Leadership, Personnel, Facilities and Interoperability), were listed. Furthermore, the expected SwAF R&D requirements, to facilitate the introduction of the technology are given. The Military utility was assessed using a model developed by the Military-Technology Division. Finally, conclusions and an overall rating of the potential military utility of each technology were presented. The chosen definition of military utility clearly affects the result of the study. The definition used here ("the military utility of a certain technology is its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, within identified relevant scenarios") has been used in our Technology Forecasts since 2013. Our evaluation of the method used shows that there is a risk that assessments can be biased by the participating experts' presumptions and experience from their own field of research. It should also be stressed that the seven technologies' potential military utility was assessed within the specific presented scenarios and their possible contribution to operational capabilities within those specific scenarios, not in general. When additional results have been found in the analysis, this is mentioned. The greatest value of the method used is its simplicity, cost effectiveness and that it promotes learning within the working group. The composition of the working group and the methodology used are believed to provide a broad and balanced coverage of the technologies being studied. This report should be seen as an executive summary of the research reports and the intention is to help the SwAF Headquarters to evaluate the military utility of emerging technologies within identified relevant scenarios. Overall, the research reports are considered to be balanced and of high quality in terms of their level of critical analysis regarding technology development. These reports are in line with our task to evaluate the military utility of the emerging technologies. ; Teknisk prognos
Four technology forecast reports from the Fraunhofer Institute and two internet based search reports from Recorded Future have been reviewed by staff at the Department of Military- Technology at the Swedish National Defence College (Note that there probably are other technology areas, equally interesting, but not included in this study). The task given by FMV was to assess the military utility of the chosen technologies in a time frame from 2025 to 2030, from a SwAF viewpoint. We assess the military utility of a certain technology, as its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, within identified relevant scenarios. The technologies were grouped in three classes; technologies with potentially significant, uncertain or negligible military utility. The following technologies were assessed to have a potential for significant military utility; Alternative fuels High altitude platforms Unmanned Aerial Vehicles Cyber Defence The forecasting and analysis technology described in the report "Future of Cyber Threats" if the tool is combined with advanced artificial intelligence algorithms The following technology was assessed to have uncertain military utility; The forecasting and analysis technology described in the report "Future of Cyber Threats" in its present form The following technology was assessed to have negligible military utility; Walking machines The method used was first to make a summary of each forecast report. The technology was then put into one or more scenarios that are assessed to be the best in order to show possible military utility as well as possibilities and drawbacks of the technologies. Based on a SWOT-analysis, the contribution to SwAF capabilities and the cost in terms of acquisition, C2 footprint, logistic footprint, doctrine/TTP, training, facilities and R&D were assessed. Conclusions regarding the military utility of the technology were drawn. Our evaluation of the method used shows that there is a risk that the assessment is biased by the participating experts' presumptions and experiences from their own field of research. The scenarios that were chosen do not cover all aspects of the technology and their possible contribution to operational capabilities. It should be stressed that we have assessed the six technologies' potential military utility within the presented scenarios, not the technology itself. The chosen definition of military utility clearly affects the result of the study. The definition (the military utility of a certain technology is its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, within identified relevant scenarios) has been slightly modified from the one used in the Technology Forecast 2012. It is believed to be good enough for this report, but could be further elaborated in the future. The greatest value of the method used is its simplicity, cost effectiveness and the tradeoff that it promotes learning within the working group. The composition of the working group and the methodology used is believed to provide for a broad and balanced coverage of the technologies under study. This report provides executive summaries of the Fraunhofer and Recorded Future reports and helps the SwAF Headquarter to evaluate the military utility of emerging technologies within identified relevant scenarios. Given the limited quantitative base (only 2 reports) for assessing the potential value of using the tool Temporal Analytics™ used by Recorded Future, our conclusion is nevertheless that the overall value of using the tool for technology forecasting is rather poor. Our assessment is that Recorded Future at present can't be used as an alternative to the Fraunhofer Institute. Overall, the quality of the Fraunhofer reports is considered to be balanced and of a high level of critical analysis regarding technology development. These reports are in line with our task to evaluate the military utility of the emerging technologies. In the case of Recorded Future's technology forecast, the sources that are relevant for making military predictions are considered to be ill-suited for aggregation in the form the tool in focus, Temporal Analytics™, provides. The tool requires further development to fit military purposes. Further use of Recorded Future in the technology forecast process is therefore not recommended, at least not until the tool has been combined with advanced artificial intelligence algorithms. We propose that the Department of Military Technology at SNDC could be involved in the early phase of the Technology Forecast process giving support to FMV in choosing which technology areas that should be selected to be studied by the Fraunhofer Institute within the framework of the Technology Forecast project (Teknisk Prognos).
