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My analytical frame -- Social structure as an analytical frame -- Complexity theory -- Structure and scope of this book -- Readings -- The ancient greek landscape -- People, land, environment -- The topography -- The seas -- Climate -- Subsistence -- Subsistence and environment -- Demographics -- Readings -- The neolithic in greece -- Tell sites -- Were communities hierarchical? -- Measures of social complexity -- Readings -- Developments ca. 3200-2200 BCE -- Developments on the mainland -- Measures of social complexity -- The Cyclades -- Measures of social complexity Crete -- Measures of social complexity -- Readings -- The beginning of change and the evolution of a Koine Crete -- Evolution on the community level -- The complexity theory frame -- Evolution on a different scale: the palace polities and peak sanctuaries -- The complexity theory window into the palaces -- The west court -- Large storage rooms -- Central courtyards -- Reception rooms -- Banquet halls -- Residential areas -- Various cult activities -- Other results of feasting: houses, "villas" and a return to the community level scale -- Polity size and territorial control -- Measures of social complexity -- The Cyclades -- Measures of social complexity -- The mainland -- Measures of social complexity -- Later developments and the creation of an Aegean Koine

"In this paper, we empirically examine the portfolio-rebalancing effects stemming from the policy of "quantitative monetary easing" recently undertaken by the Bank of Japan when the nominal short-term interest rate was virtually at zero. Portfolio-rebalancing effects resulting from the open market purchase of long-term government bonds under this policy have been statistically significant. Our results also show that the portfolio-rebalancing effects were beneficial in that they reduced risk premiums on assets with counter-cyclical returns, such as government and high-grade corporate bonds. But, they may have generated the adverse effects of increasing risk premiums on assets with pro-cyclical returns, such as equities and low-grade corporate bonds. These results are consistent with a CAPM framework in which business-cycle risk importantly affects risk premiums. Our estimates capture only some of the effects of quantitative easing and thus do not imply that the complete set of effects were adverse on net for Japan's economy. However, our analysis counsels caution in accepting the view that, ceteris paribus, a massive large-scale purchase of long-term government bonds by a central bank provides unambiguously positive net benefits to financial markets at zero short-term interest rates"--Abstract. ; Includes bibliographical references. ; "In this paper, we empirically examine the portfolio-rebalancing effects stemming from the policy of "quantitative monetary easing" recently undertaken by the Bank of Japan when the nominal short-term interest rate was virtually at zero. Portfolio-rebalancing effects resulting from the open market purchase of long-term government bonds under this policy have been statistically significant. Our results also show that the portfolio-rebalancing effects were beneficial in that they reduced risk premiums on assets with counter-cyclical returns, such as government and high-grade corporate bonds. But, they may have generated the adverse effects of increasing risk premiums on assets with pro-cyclical returns, such as equities and low-grade corporate bonds. These results are consistent with a CAPM framework in which business-cycle risk importantly affects risk premiums. Our estimates capture only some of the effects of quantitative easing and thus do not imply that the complete set of effects were adverse on net for Japan's economy. However, our analysis counsels caution in accepting the view that, ceteris paribus, a massive large-scale purchase of long-term government bonds by a central bank provides unambiguously positive net benefits to financial markets at zero short-term interest rates"--Abstract. ; Mode of access: Internet.

This paper formalizes the process of updating the nowcast and forecast on output and inflation as new releases of data become available. The marginal contribution of a particular release for the value of the signal and its precision is evaluated by computing "news" on the basis of an evolving conditioning information set. The marginal contribution is then split into what is due to timeliness of information and what is due to economic content. We find that the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia surveys have a large marginal impact on the nowcast of both inflation variables and real variables and this effect is larger than that of the Employment Report. When we control for timeliness of the releases, the effect of hard data becomes sizeable. Prices and quantities affect the precision of the estimates of inflation while GDP is only affected by real variables and interest rates.