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More than enough. That's the silver lining, of course. But, you know, I think the answer to your question, Gary, at least as it relates to trade negotiations, is emphatically yes, we are in a slower period than the administration anticipated. I don't think the explanation is that different from healthcare or taxes or Syria. I mean, it's just a lot more complicated, I think, than the administration realized. I was told that when they returned from one of their first Hill briefings on trade, one of the briefers remarked, "Who knew Congress cared so much about agriculture?" a point that Warren made. And that's really just the tip of the iceberg, because there's many things on the agenda.

With recent accessions to the federal-provincial Harmonized Sales Tax, provinces with valueadded taxes (VATs) now comprise over two-thirds of the national economy. While Canadian VATs are economically superior to the taxes they replaced, they are not as well designed as in other countries. An efficient VAT is a uniform tax on all consumer (but not business) purchases. Although the OECD has reported that Canada's VAT is one of the most efficient in the world, that assessment was based on data shown here to be misleading. In reality, Canada's VATs have large exemptions, rebates and rate preferences that reduce revenues and hamper productivity. If all these tax preferences were eliminated, government VAT revenues would increase by as much as $39 billion, or more than 50 percent. Moreover, taxing consumer commodities at a single rate reduces opportunities for tax evasion, simplifies tax compliance, and in most cases increases economic productivity. Given the fiscal and productivity challenges currently facing Canadian governments, a new look at VAT design is clearly warranted. This paper offers a detailed assessment of the effects of the tax on the economy, and it proposes a number of specific, feasible reforms to the GST-HST system.

Ontario's new Harmonized Sales Tax applies to a broader base of consumer purchases than before, but it also removes some of the "hidden" taxes on business inputs. This paper offers a first look at how the change has affected consumer prices and the welfare of Ontario families. While consumer prices initially rose 0.9% due to the reform, the price impact has since fallen, reflecting the way that input tax credits are being passed on to consumers, or the new taxes are otherwise being absorbed by sellers. With the compensating income tax changes also enacted by the Ontario government, the net impact of the reform for most families by the end of 2010 was a gain or very small loss in after-tax real incomes. Since input tax credits are likely passed on as lower prices or higher wages only gradually over time, the effect of the policy on aftertax real incomes will likely continue to improve over time.

Abstract. A simple theory suggests that a common form of federal horizontal equalization grants should cause subnational governments to levy higher tax rates, distorting local tax bases and so increasing federal transfers. To test this, I examine Canadian provincial tax policies in the 1972–2002 period. Consistent with the theory, provinces respond to expansions of equalization transfers by increasing their own tax rates. I estimate that on average tax rates in grant‐receiving provinces were substantially and significantly higher as a consequence of the transfer formula. JEL classification: H21

A simple theory suggests that a common form of federal horizontal equalization grants should cause subnational governments to levy higher tax rates, distorting local tax bases and so increasing federal transfers. To test this, I examine Canadian provincial tax policies in the 1972-2002 period. Consistent with the theory, provinces respond to expansions of equalization transfers by increasing their own tax rates. I estimate that on average tax rates in grant-receiving provinces were substantially and significantly higher as a consequence of the transfer formula.