Suchergebnisse

Der vorliegende Beitrag führt einen Vergleich zwischen der bisher dominierenden Finanzierung von Schuldnerstaaten auf der einen Seite und der Insolvenz solcher Länder, verbunden mit einer Rekapitalisierung der Banken, auf der anderen Seite durch. Hierzu werden die mit den beiden Strategien verbundenen Kosten gegenübergestellt und - unter möglichst realistischen Annahmen - miteinander verglichen. Im Mittelpunkt dieser Überlegungen steht Griechenland, weil die Probleme dort am gravierendsten sind. Gleichwohl wird bei den entsprechenden Vergleichen immer auch berücksichtigt, dass es zu so genannten Dominoeffekten kommen kann - also andere Mitgliedsländer durch Maßnahmen gegenüber Griechenland angesteckt und ebenfalls zu Krisenländern werden könnten. -- Staatsschuldenkrise ; Schuldentragfähigkeit ; Dominoeffekte ; Bankenrekapitalisierung ; Währungsunion ; Euro

Summary
The euro countries currently experience a severe government debt crisis. Since Greece asked for financial assistance in May 2010 there has been a lively debate on how to resolve this situation. The solution that has been primarily suggested by politicians so far is to finance governments' financial needs through emergency credits from EU sources (EFSF / ESM) and the International Monetary Fund. After explaining provisions like the stability pact and risk premiums on interest rates which aimed at guaranteeing fiscal stability in the pre-crisis EMU an overview is given showing financial and other political reactions to the crisis. In a second step, the sustainability of the Greek debt situation is extensively analyzed by employing the government budget constraint. The necessary primary surpluses enabling Greece to finance its government debt without international support as from 2020 onwards are, however, substantial. Therefore, it is very likely that Greece either needs further financial assistance or an additional hair cut in the future. Moreover, the effects of Greece leaving EMU are shown as well as the (financial) problems that would occur if further countries like Spain and Italy were infected. Finally, some suggestions are made how to avoid possible government debt crises in the future.

The euro countries currently experience a severe government debt crisis. Since Greece asked for financial assistance in May 2010 there has been a lively debate on how to resolve this situation. The solution that has been primarily suggested by politicians so far is to finance governments' financial needs through emergency credits from EU sources (EFSF/ESM) and the International Monetary Fund. After explaining provisions like the stability pact and risk premiums on interest rates which aimed at guaranteeing fiscal stability in the pre-crisis EMU an overview is given showing financial and other political reactions to the crisis. In a second step, the sustainability of the Greek debt situation is extensively analyzed by employing the government budget constraint. The necessary primary surpluses enabling Greece to finance its government debt without international support from 2020 onwards are, however, substantial. Therefore, it is very likely that Greece either needs further financial assistance or an additional hair cut. Finally, some suggestions are made how to avoid possible government debt crises in the future.

Increasing protection in the world economy, especially in
industrialised countries since the 1970s has increased the costs of
restricting international trade. It is shown that in West Germany under
inter‐industry specialisation the short‐run burden of protection is
shared nearly equally by producers of non‐tradeables and exporters. In
the longer run the costs shift more towards exporters. Under
intra‐industry trade, however, a considerable portion of the burden is
shifted onto producers of home goods in the short run. This portion even
increases over time. Therefore, it is evident that the home goods sector
is especially hit by import protection.