Influence of the tropical oceanic processes (the El-Niño – La-Niña phenomenon) on structure and composition of a polar stratosphere is considered. Data of the reanalysis on sea surface temperature, a potential vorticity, temperatures of air, ozone mixing ratio and total ozone column per 1980–2016 are analyzed. Influence the El-Niño and La-Niña on circumpolar vorticity, temperature of air in a stratosphere and an ozone layer is studied. It is shown that the El-Niño leads to instability of circumpolar vorticity, causes sudden stratospheric warming and increase the content of ozone.
In this work, the impact of various factors on the total ozone column and erythemal UV radiation (Qery) in the territory of Northern Eurasia for the period from 1979 to 2059 based on the calculations of the chemical-climate model INM-RHSU is analyzed. The sensitivity of ozone recovery to the setting of different input data on sea surface temperature (SST) is estimated. Depending on the SST datasets, there are significant differences in ozone trends. A possible mechanism that explains the reasons for these differences is examined. The numerical experiment with the only change in ozone depleting substances according to Montreal protocol showed the ozone recovery and, as a result, Qery reduction, but this recovery is not linear. During the 2016-2020 period we estimated the 2-5% increase in Qery values relative to the baseline period (1979-1983) with about 6% maximum over Russian polar region. During the 2035-2039 period the Qery change against 1979-1983 period is about zero, during the 2055-2059 period we obtained the decrease of about 4-6% over Northern Asia and 6-8% over Northern Europe These changes corresponded to the noticeable boundary location shift of UV resources, which determine UV radiation impact on human health. The most significant changes will be observed in spring and summer: the UV deficiency zone will be expanded in the north and the UV excess zone over northern seas will be reduced in the south.
Due to the increase in CO2 content in the Earth's atmosphere, which is highly dependent on anthropogenic emissions of CO2, quality of emission estimation should be improved. Advanced experiment-based methods of the CO2 anthropogenic emission estimation are built on solution of an inverse problem using highly-accurate measurements of CO2 content and numerical models of transport and chemistry in the atmosphere. The accuracy of such models greatly determines errors of the emission estimations. In a current study temporal variations of column-average CO2 content in an atmospheric layer from surface to the height of ~70–75 km (XCO2) in the Russian megapolis of St. Petersburg during Jan 2019–Mar 2020 simulated by WRF-Chem model and measured by IR Fourier-transform spectrometer Bruker EM27/SUN are compared. The research has demonstrated that the WRF-Chem model simulates well the observed temporal variation of XCO2 in the area of St. Petersburg (correlation coefficient of ~0.95). However, using CarbonTracker v2022-1 data as chemical boundary conditions, the model overestimates XCO2 relative to the observations significantly during almost the whole period of investigation – systematic difference and standard deviation of the difference are 4.2 and 1.9 ppm (1 and 0.5%). A correction of the chemical boundary conditions which is based on analysis of a relation between near-surface wind direction and XCO2 variation notably decreases the systematic difference between the modelled and observed data (almost by a factor of 2). The XCO2 variation by the observations and modelling with uncorrected chemical boundary conditions are in a better agreement during vegetation season. Probably this is related to the compensation of the systematic difference by inaccuracies in estimated biogenic contribution. Hence, the reason of the still existing mean difference between the modelled and observed data can be inaccuracies in setting chemical boundary conditions for upper troposphere and in estimating how biosphere influences CO2 content.
