Same Question But Different Answer: Experimental Evidence on Questionnaire Design's Impact on Poverty Measured by Proxies
In: Review of Income and Wealth, Band 65, Heft 1, S. 144-165
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In: Review of Income and Wealth, Band 65, Heft 1, S. 144-165
SSRN
In: Poverty & public policy: a global journal of social security, income, aid, and welfare, Band 9, Heft 1, S. 118-133
ISSN: 1944-2858
Random forest (RF) is in many fields of research a common method for data‐driven predictions. Within economics and prediction of poverty, RF is rarely used. Comparing out‐of‐sample predictions in surveys for the same year in six countries shows that RF is often more accurate than current common practice (multiple imputations with variables selected by Stepwise and Lasso), suggesting that this method could contribute to better poverty predictions. However, none of the methods consistently provides accurate predictions of poverty over time, highlighting that technical model fitting by any method within a single year is not always, by itself, sufficient for accurate predictions of poverty over time.
In: Development Policy Review, Band 34, Heft 2, S. 197-221
SSRN
In: Journal of international development: the journal of the Development Studies Association, Band 35, Heft 6, S. 1407-1428
ISSN: 1099-1328
AbstractWe examine how returns to education have evolved in the context of post‐conflict reconstruction and economic growth in Mozambique over the period 1996–2015. We show that private rates of return to education have declined at lower levels of schooling, but remained stable and possibly even increased at the highest levels. Returns are increasingly convex in non‐agricultural jobs but almost flat in agriculture. Using consumption expenditure data, as opposed to income data, allows estimation of returns for the entire labour market, not just the minority in formal sector jobs. Results are robust to a wide range of specifications, including use of a pseudo‐panel.
In: World development: the multi-disciplinary international journal devoted to the study and promotion of world development, Band 131, S. 1-12
World Affairs Online
In: World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 7182
SSRN
Working paper
In: Eastern European economics: EEE, Band 56, Heft 3, S. 223-245
ISSN: 1557-9298
Reducing child undernutrition is a key social policy objective of the Ethiopian government. Despite substantial reduction over the past decade and a half, child undernutrition is still high. With 48 percent of children stunted, underweight, or wasted, undernutrition remains an important child health challenge. The existing literature highlights that the targeting of efforts to reduce undernutrition in Ethiopia is inefficient, in part because of the lack of data and updated information. This paper remedies some of this shortfall by estimating levels of stunting and underweight in each woreda for 2014. The estimates are small area estimations based on the 2014 Demographic and Health Survey and the latest population census. It is shown that small area estimations are powerful predictors of undernutrition, even controlling for household characteristics, such as wealth and education, and hence a valuable targeting metric. The results show large variations in share of children undernourished in each region, more than between regions. The results also show that the locations with larger challenges depend on the chosen undernutrition statistic, as the share, number, and concentration of undernourished children point to vastly different locations. There is limited correlation between the shares of children underweight and stunted across woredas, indicating that different locations face different challenges.
BASE
Reducing child undernutrition is a key social policy objective of the Ethiopian government. Despite substantial reduction over the last decade and a half, child undernutrition is still high; with 48 percent of children either stunted, underweight or wasted, undernutrition remains an important child health challenge. The existing literature highlights that targeting of efforts to reduce undernutrition in Ethiopia is inefficient, in part due to lack of data and updated information. This paper remedies some of this shortfall by estimating levels of stunting and underweight in each woreda for 2014. The estimates are small area estimations based on the 2014 Demographic and Health Survey and the latest population census. It is shown that small area estimations are powerful predictors of undernutrition, even compared to household characteristics, such as wealth and education, and hence a valuable targeting metric. The results show large variations in share of children undernourished within each region, more than between regions. The results also show that the locations with larger challenges depend on the chosen undernutrition statistic, as the share, number and concentration of undernourished children point to vastly different locations. There is also limited correlation between share of children underweight and stunted across woredas, indicating that different locations face different challenges.
BASE
In: Sohnesen , T P , Ambel , A A , Fisker , P K , Andrews , C & Khan , Q 2017 , ' Small area estimation of child undernutrition in Ethiopian woredas ' , PLOS ONE , vol. 12 , no. 4 , e0175445 . https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0175445
Reducing child undernutrition is a key social policy objective of the Ethiopian government. Despite substantial reduction over the last decade and a half, child undernutrition is still high; with 48 percent of children either stunted, underweight or wasted, undernutrition remains an important child health challenge. The existing literature highlights that targeting of efforts to reduce undernutrition in Ethiopia is inefficient, in part due to lack of data and updated information. This paper remedies some of this shortfall by estimating levels of stunting and underweight in each woreda for 2014. The estimates are small area estimations based on the 2014 Demographic and Health Survey and the latest population census. It is shown that small area estimations are powerful predictors of undernutrition, even compared to household characteristics, such as wealth and education, and hence a valuable targeting metric. The results show large variations in share of children undernourished within each region, more than between regions. The results also show that the locations with larger challenges depend on the chosen undernutrition statistic, as the share, number and concentration of undernourished children point to vastly different locations. There is also limited correlation between share of children underweight and stunted across woredas, indicating that different locations face different challenges.
BASE