Suchergebnisse

The U.S. military uses modeling and simulation as a tool to help meet its warfighting needs. A key element within military simulations is the ability to accurately represent human behavior. This is especially true in a simulation's ability to emulate realistic military decisions. However, current decision models fail to provide the variability and flexibility that human decision makers exhibit. Further, most decision models are focused on tactical decisions and ignore the decision process of senior military commanders at the operational level of warfare. In an effort to develop a better decision model that would mimic the decision process of a senior military commander, this research sought to identify an underlying cognitive process and computational techniques that could adequately implement it. Recognition-Primed Decision making (RPD) was identified as one such model that characterized this process. Multiagent system simulation was identified as a computational system that could mimic the cognitive process identified by RPD. The result was a model of RPD called RPDAgent. Using an operational military decision scenario, decisions produced by RPDAgent were compared against decisions made by military officers. It was found that RPDAgent produced decisions that were equivalent to its human counterparts. RPDAgent's decisions were not optimum decisions, but decisions that reflected the variability inherent in those made by humans in an operational military environment.

One-of-a-kind introduction to the theory and application of modeling and simulation techniques in the realm of international studies. Modeling and Simulation for Analyzing Global Events provides an orientation to the theory and application of modeling and simulation techniques in social science disciplines. This book guides readers in developing quantitative and numeric representations of real-world events based on qualitative analysis. With an emphasis on gathering and mapping empirical data, the authors detail the steps needed for accurately analyzing global events and outline the selection

Handbook of Real-World Applications in Modeling and Simulation provides a thorough explanation of modeling and simulation in the most useful, current, and predominant applied areas of transportation, homeland security, medicine, operational research, military science, and business modeling. Offering a cutting-edge and accessible presentation, this book discusses how and why the presented domains have become leading applications of modeling and simulation techniques. [From Amazon.com] ; https://digitalcommons.odu.edu/vmasc_books/1003/thumbnail.jpg

A sequence of analytic mathematical models has been developed in the context of the "low-level insurgency" in Colombia, from 1993 to the present. They are based on generalizations of the two-population "predator-prey" model commonly applied in ecological modeling, and interestingly, the less sophisticated models yield more insight into the problem than the more complicated ones, but the formalism is available to adapt the model "upwards" in the event that more data becomes available, or as the situation increases in complexity. Specifically, so-called "forcing terms" were included initially in the coupled differential equations to represent the effects of government policies towards both the narco-terrorist or insurgent (I) and susceptible (S) populations. These terms are in general functions of time, since it is to be expected that changes in policy will occur as the outcomes of previously implemented policies are recognized. Both continuous and discontinuous forcing functions can be appropriate for each population. Although nonhomogeneous systems are discussed for both populations, the majority of the analysis focused on a system with forcing terms for the terrorist population only. Two categories of models emerged: 1-in which the time-dependent forcing terms were independent of the two populations, and 2-in which these terms were directly proportional to the respective populations. Model 2 in fact, can be considered as a generalization of the unforced (or homogeneous) version of model 1, and as such is implemented to describe the data obtained for the insurgent population from 1993-2003. This provides some restrictions on the unknown parameters in the model. Because of new government policy towards the insurgent population as a result of the election of President Uribe in 2002, a slight but significant modification of this model is used to describe the I-population from 2003 to the present time, again resulting in useful relationships between the various model parameters. The data suggest that a further simplification in this model is appropriate beyond 2003, and an analytic solution was found for both populations. A further simplification results from examining the related decoupled system of equations, yielding a straightforward predictive model for the behavior of the S-population in particular. Finally, in the Appendix, detailed analysis of model 2 yields a general analytic solution of the system for a wide range of sub-models, expressible in terms of confluent hypergeometric functions. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

"Medical modeling and simulation technology is interdisciplinary and combines life and physical sciences, engineering, and medical expertise, and since it is being executed at various levels for various purposes at research and development institutions throughout the world, there exists the foremost challenge of conjoining these independent, yet complementary efforts to exploit their full potential. This is especially true with regard to the virtual human wherein there is the necessity to assimilate both the developed and developing components of the human physiome and diseaseome to advance patient care, medical practice, research and development, and education and training. This book advances personalized patient care using the virtual human and its ability to represent the human physiome (how the body functions) and diseaseome (disruptions to the body's functions). In order to achieve a holistic analysis of the body, this book provides an integrated, interoperable, i.e., complex and dynamic, examination of human biology with physiological and behavioral components of the overall patient experience. The future of healthcare is proving to be an overwhelming challenge globally, and changing practice to provide holistic, personalized care in an expanding (longer-lived and growing population) and demanding (multiple pathologies and needs per individual patient) environment requires optimizing research, technology, and training. Clinicians must exploit new generation capabilities in diagnostic and therapeutic patient care for the burden of patient needs to be met. Medical technology is very near to providing safe and effective personalized patient care through the use of virtual human technology, and via simulation, clinicians receive a virtual patient in real-time and conclude a more timely and precise treatment action. With contributions from international experts, the book presents the state-of-the-art in the development of the virtual human physiome in three areas: anatomical; physiological; and behavioral. This is followed by a discussion of current applications in: practice-personalized care; research; and education. With this two-fold research agenda aimed at assimilating the various resources needed to complete the virtual human, the book extends the integrated, interoperable capabilities to further research and development, augment education and training, and advance patient care"--Provided by publisher

Since the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, and the subsequent establishment of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), considerable efforts have been made to estimate the risks of terrorism and the cost effectiveness of security policies to reduce these risks. DHS, industry, and the academic risk analysis communities have all invested heavily in the development of tools and approaches that can assist decisionmakers in effectively allocating limited resources across the vast array of potential investments that could mitigate risks from terrorism and other threats to the homeland. Decisionmakers demand models, analyses, and decision support that are useful for this task and based on the state of the art. Since terrorism risk analysis is new, no single method is likely to meet this challenge. In this article we explore a number of existing and potential approaches for terrorism risk analysis, focusing particularly on recent discussions regarding the applicability of probabilistic and decision analytic approaches to bioterrorism risks and the Bioterrorism Risk Assessment methodology used by the DHS and criticized by the National Academies and others.

This is Old Dominion University's 13th annual State of the Region Report. While it represents the work of many people connected in various ways to the university, the report does not constitute an official viewpoint of Old Dominion or it's president, John R. Broderick. The report maintains the goal of stimulating thought and discussion that ultimately will make Hampton Roads an even better place to live. We are proud of our region's many successes, but realize that it is possible to improve our performance. In order to do so, we must have accurate information about "where we are" and a sound understanding of the policy options open to us. ; https://digitalcommons.odu.edu/economics_books/1006/thumbnail.jpg