Suchergebnisse

Serien het tidligere INA fagrapport ; Oppmerksomheten på skogsektorens (dvs. skogbruk og skogindustri) viktige rolle i karbonsyklusen, og derved sektorens muligheter for å avhjelpe klimaproblemet, har økt betydelig de siste årene. Det har imidlertid vært utviklet få modeller som kan brukes i kvantifisering av avveiningene mellom karbonopptak i skog og substitusjon av materialer med høye klimagassutslipp, selv om prinsippene bak disse avveiningene i stor grad er klare. De fleste modeller fokuserer enten på tilvekst og skjøtsel i skog, altså på skogbruksdelen av sektoren, eller på industrien og allokeringen av råvarer til ulike produkter. NorFor‐modellen er resultat av forsøk på å utvikle et integrert modellverktøy som inkluderer både skogbruksdelen og industridelen i detalj, og som kan 1) frembringe prognoser både for hele skogsektoren og for individuelle deler, gitt objektfunksjonen, forutsetninger og skranker; 2) estimere effekter på skogsektoren av endringer i politiske/økonomiske faktorer, i tillegg til interaksjoner og avhengighet mellom ulike deler av sektoren; og 3) følge karbonstrømmene i sektoren, fra trær i vekst via avvirkning, transport og prosessering, til konsum, substitusjon og forbrenning. Endogene variable i skogbruksdelen i NorFor er skogskjøtsel og tilbud av tømmer og hogstavfall. På industri‐ og konsumentsiden utgjør handel av tømmer og treprodukter, produksjon i industrien, konsum av produkter og kapasitetstilpasninger de endogene variablene. Prisene på tømmer og treprodukter er altså endogene. Teknisk sett er NorFor en partiell og romlig dynamisk likevektsmodell, basert på forutsetningen om at alle aktører har perfekt forhåndskunnskap. NorFor optimaliserer velferden i skogsektoren ved å maksimere nåverdien av diskonterte konsument‐ og produsentoverskudd, i tillegg til miljøgoder som redusert akkumulering av klimagasser i atmosfæren og verdien av gammelskog, fratrukket transport‐ og kapitalkostnader. Et viktig formål med utviklingen av NorFor er å øke kunnskapen til politikere og andre involvert i klimapolitikk om hvordan hele skogsektoren kan brukes til å avhjelpe klimaproblemet, men andre anvendelser kan være like viktig. Norge har lange tradisjoner for å anvende skogsektormodeller for å analysere skogpolitiske virkemidlers effektivitet, og effekter på sektoren av endringer i ulike politiske og økonomiske faktorer. Til forskjell fra modeller som kun fokuserer på industrien (som har skogskjøtsel og investeringer i skogbruk eksogent) eller tilvekstmodeller (som har priser og allokering av tømmer eksogent), er denne modellen utviklet for også å studere interaksjoner mellom disse to delsektorene. Forfatterne håper at NorFor vil gi nyttig informasjon i politiske, økonomiske og miljørelaterte spørsmål i den norske skogsektoren. ; Attention to the important role of the forest sector (i.e. forestry and forest industries) in the carbon cycle and thus climate change mitigation has increased significantly in the last years. However, even though many of the principles regarding trade‐offs between carbon sequestration in forests and substitution of fossil fuels and materials with high greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions seem rather clear, there is a lack of models to quantify these effects. Most models focus either on forest growth and management, i.e. the forestry part of the sector, or on industry and raw material allocation to different products. In forming NorFor, we attempt to develop an integrated modeling tool encompassing both forestry side and industry side in detail, which can 1) provide projections of the entire forest sector as well as its individual parts, given the objective function, assumptions and constraints; 2) project forest sector impacts of changes in political/economic factors, as well as interactions and interdependencies between the different parts of the sector; and 3) track carbon flows in the sector, from growing trees through harvest, transport and processing, through consumption, substitution and combustion. Endogenous forestry variables in NorFor are forest management and supply of timber and harvest residues. On the industry and consumer side, wood and wood products trade, industrial production and consumption of products, as well as capacity adjustments, are endogenous variables. Thus, wood and wood products prices are endogenous. Technically, NorFor is a partial, spatial dynamic equilibrium model, based on the assumption that all agents have perfect foresight. NorFor optimizes forest sector welfare by maximizing the present value of discounted producers' and consumers' surplus, as well as environmental benefits like reduced atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration and old‐growth forest amenity values, less transport and capital costs. NorFor was developed to increase climate policy maker's knowledge about how the whole forest sector may contribute to mitigate climate change, but other applications may prove equally important. Norway has a long history of applying forest sector models to study forest policy effectiveness and sectoral impacts of a wide range of political and economic factors. Unlike models emphasizing industry (where management and investment in forestry are exogenous) or forest growth models (to which prices and allocation of timber are exogenous), this model is designed to also examine the interactions between these two subsectors. It is the hope of the authors that NorFor will provide useful insight in political, economical and environmental aspects of the Norwegian forest sector.

Background. In the last decade, the demand for and supply of energy wood from forests has increased, and experts expect a further increase in the future due to political and societal changes. The objective of this paper was to provide a qualitative analysis of stakeholders' perceptions of current and future trade-offs as well as of synergies between energy wood production and use and other forest ecosystem services (ES). Methods. We developed an explorative research approach and conducted semi-structured interviews with a total of 103 interviewees of six selected stakeholder groups in five European countries: Finland, Germany, Norway, Slovenia and Spain. For the analysis, we adopted a qualitative content analysis approach. Results. The results of this empirical study indicate that, across the five countries, stakeholders perceive similar trade-offs and synergies. Stakeholders perceive a strong synergy with employment whereas trade-offs regarding conservation of biodiversity are the most critical issue related to energy wood production in forests. Furthermore, stakeholders continue the classic debate about forest protection versus forest use in the energy wood context. Conclusions. Effects of energy wood production and use need to be taken into account in policy development and forest management in order to address current and future trade-offs and to tap the full potential of synergies related to other forest ES. Different characteristics of countries and regions need to be considered, and decisions need to be fostered by long-term and far-reaching political frameworks. ; The study was conducted within the COOL project (COmpeting uses Of forest Land), a project within the two ERA-Nets WoodWisdom-Net 2 and Bioenergy, and with financial support from the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (programme manager: Project Management Jülich) in Germany, the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry in Finland, the Research Council of Norway, the Ministry of Education, Science and Sport in Slovenia, and the Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness in Spain. The article processing charge was funded by the German Research Foundation (DFG) and the Albert Ludwigs University Freiburg in the funding programme Open Access Publishing.

Abstract Background In the last decade, the demand for and supply of energy wood from forests has increased, and experts expect a further increase in the future due to political and societal changes. The objective of this paper was to provide a qualitative analysis of stakeholders' perceptions of current and future trade-offs as well as of synergies between energy wood production and use and other forest ecosystem services (ES). Methods We developed an explorative research approach and conducted semi-structured interviews with a total of 103 interviewees of six selected stakeholder groups in five European countries: Finland, Germany, Norway, Slovenia and Spain. For the analysis, we adopted a qualitative content analysis approach. Results The results of this empirical study indicate that, across the five countries, stakeholders perceive similar trade-offs and synergies. Stakeholders perceive a strong synergy with employment whereas trade-offs regarding conservation of biodiversity are the most critical issue related to energy wood production in forests. Furthermore, stakeholders continue the classic debate about forest protection versus forest use in the energy wood context. Conclusions Effects of energy wood production and use need to be taken into account in policy development and forest management in order to address current and future trade-offs and to tap the full potential of synergies related to other forest ES. Different characteristics of countries and regions need to be considered, and decisions need to be fostered by long-term and far-reaching political frameworks.