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In this article we show that significant differences between the foreign currency mortgage agreements in Hungary and Poland led to significant differences in monthly mortgage payments after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) erupted. Hungarian banks were able to add a variable markup to the LIBOR3M that was connected to bank risk on top of the usual fixed markup. We compare the monthly mortgage payments and LTV levels of people who took out a CHF mortgage with those who obtained a local currency mortgage during the mortgage boom years of 2006–2008. We find that in the initial years of the mortgage CHF mortgages were cheaper than local currency mortgages, which allowed more people to buy housing. However, the GFC led to a deterioration of the exchange rate, and monthly payments and LTV levels (consequently?) increased. We analyse the mortgage costs and LTV levels of the 2006-2008 foreign currency (FX) mortgage vintages in Hungary and Poland between 2006 and 2020 and compare them to local currency mortgages. We also simulate the effects of changing housing prices and wages on mortgages in the cities of Budapest and Warsaw.

This final report presents the methodological development and results of the MISTA research project which aims to provide new insights into the complex relationship between the city and industry (in particular the manufacturing sector). In order to facilitate knowledge transfer, the report also introduces policy recommendations, based on exploring inspirational cases, which offer actions and strategies that cities can carry out in exploring if and how the industrial activities can be more effectively embedded into the contemporary urban economy and life. The first chapter provides a comprehensive literature review covering a) existing empirical research, b) best-practice reports and evaluations and c) policy documents and discussion papers. This review found that the industrial sector has changed considerably over the last three decades, 'hybridising', moving closer to the services sector, focusing on high-tech activities or highly customised products. Furthermore there is an increased recognition of the importance of industrial activities for urban areas and evidence of growth of some industrial activities in urban agglomerations across Europe. This chapter also defines key analytic concepts and nomenclatures about the nature of contemporary industrial activities and manufacturing and cities. Chapter 2 builds upon a baseline data analysis of major past and current spatial trends related to the locational preferences of the productive sector bases in European city regions. The objective is to provide new empirical insight trends over the last three decades. Due to the limited availability of comparable and sufficiently detailed datasets, the team combined EU scale data with local databases. This second step of the analysis focused particularly on the seven urban stakeholders and has resulted in a baseline analysis for each city and their functional urban areas, regarding spatial trends and the locational preferences for industrial activities. The results of the baseline analysis highlight the need to adopt new lenses when trying to grasp the nature of contemporary manufacturing. It showed how city-regions are an important scale for industry and production. The analysis also showed how a series of activities that are not traditionally considered part of the production cycle are particularly crucial for industrial activities (such as services) and for the functioning of large urban areas. The report is supplemented by a scientific background report (see Annex 1) produced to present in full detail the methodology used under T1. To complement the analytical research, and better understand the local political and economic drivers for change, a qualitative analysis was conducted in each of the seven cities. Chapter 3 summarises the results of interviews that were held with local actors between January and February 2020 which included site visits, an analysis of policies and planning documents, but also a comparative analysis of the seven cities. This step helped to highlight factors driving deindustrialisation and reindustrialisation. The Case Study reports (Annexes 3) highlight quite different conditions among the stakeholder cities, both in experiencing and perceiving the changing relationship between production and the city. This articulated the conflict between different potential land uses, the poorly understood role of the public sector, the impact on or ESPON / MISTA - Metropolitan Industrial Spatial Strategy & Economic Sprawl / final report vii with local communities, the links with training and the local labour markets, the link with economic visions, the capacity for public authorities to act at a metropolitan scale of so forth. Considering that industry in the city, or urban manufacturing, is one of the most complex and poorly understood economic activities in urban areas, there are a vast range of variables that could come into play. One of the first questions regards the role of the public sector. The presence of industrial activities depends heavily on a combination of urban policy, land use planning and public support of local networks and entrepreneurship. Therefore, some trends and forecasts will require concerted efforts to be made by policy makers to confront market forces. Chapter 4 looks at four scenarios related to how cities could address their productive sector. The scenarios address two key questions. Firstly, what is the role of the public sector. Secondly, at what scale should action be taken? The scenarios are a useful exercise to explore ambitions and actions. Against this background, the quantitative and qualitative analysis (chapters 1-3) allowed the MISTA team to structure the in-depth exploration of current spatial trends, technical and production forecasts and future planning and policy conditions (chapter 4). In fact, drawing on the knowledge generated, the project includes two further steps for developing strategies for industrial areas and to manage economic sprawl. These are: the Futures Workshops (chapter 4) and the Atlas of Inspirational Cases (chapter 5). The Futures Workshops were intended as exploratory and reflective processes for the cities to review how their planning policy, plans, regulation and technical capacity reflect their ambitions. It constituted a fundamental learning experience for both the MISTA team, and the stakeholder cities involved. On the one hand, these events enabled the research team to get feedback on the empirical research, namely the hypotheses regarding the spatial location of manufacturing, the effectiveness of governance and planning processes and the potential applicability of inspirational cases. The workshops also provided the context and methodology for the local stakeholders to confront their views and build partnerships around collaboration (amongst the public sector and beyond). Chapter 4 presents a summary of the outcome of the workshops which helps cities to build their own visions for urban industry. Policy makers and planners can be convinced by the idea of strengthening their industrial capacities yet lack the capacity to get started. Chapter 5 showcases an Atlas of 26 Inspirational Cases (Annex 4) that has been produced as a strategic resource to portray a wide range of options and help experiment and support design and planning processes. Chapter 5 presents an overview of the inspirational cases which are categorised according to four families: 1) visions and strategic frameworks, 2) plans and policies, 3) tools and programs and 4) projects. The Atlas (Annex 4) includes the full description of all the inspirational cases along with the elaboration of the final reflections generated by the research project addressing the impact on policy making. The final objective of the MISTA project is to provide recommendations for cities engaged in planning and policy for industrial land use, manufacturing and productive activities. This report ESPON / MISTA - Metropolitan Industrial Spatial Strategy & Economic Sprawl / final report viii concludes with a set of policy-recommendations that emerged through dialogue between the stakeholders' cities, research on the Atlas of Inspirational Cases and discussion that emerged from the Futures Workshops and Inspirational Cases Workshops. Four problem statements have been identified. Firstly, more precise data and knowledge is needed to provide clear insights on industrial processes and their impact. Secondly, spatial foresight is required to address problems both to the core city level and metropolitan scale. Thirdly, metropolitan leadership is required in the light of the global processes (such as digitalisation, the 4th industrial revolution, etc.) affecting production processes and requires metropolitan governance to embrace new technology or support local technical. Finally, strong collaboration is fundamental to address urban and metropolitan challenges and requires capacity building. The last chapter of the report presents the conclusions of the research project within a postCOVID perspective. Some preliminary considerations about the impacts brought in by the pandemic in restructuring society and reframing the relationship between the city and the industry. This exposes the urgency of further and more detailed research in order to transform this crisis into an opportunity to strategically rethink many urban planning trends that have been taken for granted. Arguably, this reflection constitutes a crucial step to direct future research (see Chapter 6)