Suchergebnisse

Pakistan is passing through an early stage of fertility
transition. The slow-paced transition has been analysed in an earlier
study done by Sathar and Casterline (1998), which concludes that the
increase in the levels of prevalence has accelerated the fertility
transition in Pakistan and as a consequence marital fertility has
declined. However, this claim is not supported by the relevant
statistics. A re-examination reveals that the effect of contraception is
the lowest in the decline of fertility. The rise in marriages and
breastfeeding has played a significant inhibiting role in the decline of
fertility and marital fertility has remained constant. The structural
adjustment programme (SAP), initiated in late 1980s, has led to more
poverty and the proportion of never-married has increased in Pakistan as
revealed by the Population Census 1998. Labour force participation by
the females increased in the post-SAP period. The new economic situation
appears to be indirectly responsible for the decline of fertility, and
it appears to be consistent with the Malthusian macro theory of
fertility.

There has been a transition in NGO actIVItIes over time, from
the basic welfare orientation to various fields of development. This has
been mainly due to the failure of the previous development strategies
that emphasised on rates of economic growth, on the assumption that the
top-down approach would initiate the process of trickle-down benefits to
the poor. The assumed linkages were conceived without a knowledge of the
working of the inter-linkages of cultural, social, political, and
economic structural processes which led to the failure of such
strategies. There appeared to be a need to evolve a workable methodology
of development which could replace the top-down strategy. As a
consequence of this search, a strategy of grassroots mobilisation of the
recipient population was formulated so that they could take part in the
process of development in terms of problem identification, project
implementation, and its monitoring and evaluation. This strategy is
popularly known as community participation. There are two important
elements in this participatory approach: a two-way active communication
between the community and the NGO to build trust and understanding, and
the empowerment of the community towards decision-making for their own
needs. This participatory approach is still viable and is a source of
social change and development in many countries. The author of this book
promises an advancement in this type of development strategy and
suggests an alternative model and its method of
accountability.

Experiencing high fertility and declining mortality levels,
the developing countries are today faced with the problem of relatively
high rates of natural increase in their populations. This pace of growth
in population, influenced by high fertility levels, impedes the overall
development planning. As pointed out in a document prepared by the
Planning Commission of Pakistan, 'A vicious circle is set in motion in
which high fertility and socio-economic stagnation breed upon each
other' [5]. In the developing countries, development programmes
including birth control programmes are in operation. The sustained high
fertility levels, therefore, call for more insights into the mechanisms
operating in the society and influencing fertility. Studies of fertility
behaviour are conducted at both micro and macro levels. The difference
between micro and macro is a matter of emphasis rather than one of kind,
and both approaches are concerned with each level of social aggregation.
Macrolevel studies describe the level and pattern of change resulting
from the ongoing socio-econornic development in the society as a whole
and do not explain variations in fertility at the household level [12].
However, development programmes, which are implemented at aggregate
levels defined by geographical boundaries, influence the population in
terms of socio-economic status and fertility behaviour. There are many
factors which affect human fertility individually or collectively.
Attempts have been made to identify these factors, and conceptual
frameworks have been developed to explain the causal hypotheses. In this
context mention may be made of the demographic transition theory, which
is often applied to study fertility behaviour.

Pakistan, established in 1947, is currently experiencing one
of the highest growth rates of population in the world. If the 1972-81
intercensal growth rate continues, the population size would be
approximately 95 million in 1985 and 150 million by the year 2000. The
growing population size is already straining the scarce resources of the
country and will further aggravate the level of socia-economic
development; for the family planning programme which was launched to
check the pace of population growth has not produced any tangible
results. The major criterion for the successful implementation of a
programme is that there should exist an effective demand in the society
which should be matched equally with the supply. In Pakistan, the
reverse has been experienced so far. The programme has been very active
in maintaining an adequate supply of contraceptives without perceiving
the demand situation. For the desired achievement of a programme three
preconditions deduced from the demographic transition theory have been
set forth by Coale [3]. The demand aspect of these includes perceived
choice of an individual and favourable socio-economic conditions for
declined fertility. In order to facilitate transformation of the
perceived choice into behaviour, the availability of appropriate
contraceptive technology is essential.

In most of the developing countries, sustained population
growth rates have been a dominant factor in decelerating socio-economic
development. The continuing decline in mortality rates has been a major
contributor to the acceleration of growth of population in these
countries which started in the period following the second World War,
and has not abated yet in most of the developing world. There is every
likelihood that the population of these developing countries will double
in the course of the next generation or so, because of the demographic
momentum that is built into their age structure. The rapidly increasing
population in low-income countries is not keeping pace with the
necessary cultural and technological changes that may help them to raise
the standard of living of their masses. Also, high rates of population
growth have become a barrier to a successful attainment of the desired
socioeconomic development, both quantitative and qualitative.