Suchergebnisse

Inhaltsangabe: Introduction and Course of Work: In 2007, at their meeting in Tanzania, the central bank governors of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) laid out a strategy to strengthen regional integration, containing the development of a common market by 2015, fixed exchange rates by 2016, and, ultimately, a monetary union with a single currency in 2018. In pursuit of this agenda, a free trade area absent of intra-regional tariffs was arranged in August 2008 with a regional customs union to follow this year. The currently fourteen member countries of the SADC committed themselves towards achieving economic convergence and to deepen monetary cooperation. In the 21st century, Africa finds itself increasingly separated from economic developments in the remaining world and fails to prosper from increased globalization. Despite a large abundance in natural resources, many countries have suffered from an extremely poor economic performance, which mainly originated from internal strives and weak and distortionary policies. Inward looking governments, conducting clientele policies, are focused on reaping economic rents rather than on fostering growth. Furthermore, tribal conflicts and civil war have sparked recurring border conflicts with neighboring countries. Although Africa has seen a large number of regional arrangements and trading blocs throughout the continent, the overall success for growth and trade expansion was limited. Against this background, the formation of a monetary union is believed to counteract economic and political weaknesses, to improve regional cooperation and to enhance both the political and economic standing in the world. A monetary union and a common currency entails both gains and losses for its members. On the cost side, countries in a monetary union effectively loose the ability to pursue independent monetary policies and to use the exchange rate as adjustment instrument to stabilize the economy. On the other hand, countries inside a monetary union benefit from reduced transaction costs and the elimination of internal exchange rate volatility. Furthermore, countries which suffer from weak internal stability and high inflation rates benefit by using the fixed exchange rate in a monetary union as external anchor. By transferring the power over monetary policy to a supranational central bank, the risk of homegrown inflation and currency devaluations is banished and economic agents are able to borrow at more favorable interest rates. Both the gains and losses from a monetary union are determined by structural characteristics inside the countries. If, in total, the benefits from a single currency exceed the costs in that the constraints imposed by fixed exchange rates are not harmful to the economy, the countries constitute an optimum currency area. In essence, the theory of optimum currency areas considers the desirability for each country to join a monetary union. The trade off between costs and benefits is affected by three features: First, the degree of intra-country trade influences the gains in efficiency and reduced uncertainty from fixing the exchange rate. Second, the degree of correlation in output fluctuations determines whether a common monetary policy is adequate for all countries. And third, the response to output shocks is eased by several adjustment mechanisms, including price flexibility and factor mobility, which restore the initial equilibrium. The purpose of this study is to evaluate whether a monetary union in Southern Africa is both desirable and feasible from an economic point of view, to discuss institutional challenges and requirements, and to give direction for which countries are best candidates to form a monetary union. Both the motivation and requirements for a successful monetary union are drawn from the theory of optimum currency areas. Unfortunately, the various aspects of the theory have been gradually developed over time and are often confounded and fragmentary in theoretical work. The aim is therefore to first derive a framework that includes relevant benefits and costs, which are subsequently related to country-specific structural criteria. Since economic integration is an important aspect for Africa, emphasis will be put on the endogenous trade effects of monetary integration. Similarly, special attention is given to fiscal distortions and weak institutions, which are sources of high inflation rates and low monetary credibility. Next, the theoretical foundations are applied to the SADC to examine the suitability of countries to form a monetary union. Although a number of studies have discussed monetary integration in various parts of Africa (Masson and Pattillo 2001, Debrun, Masson and Pattillo 2005, and Houssa 2008, for instance, cover monetary unification in West Africa while Kishor and Ssozi 2009 analyze the East African Community), relatively little has been done concerning the SADC in particular. Relevant exceptions are Agbeyegbe, Bayoumi and Ostry, Buigut and Valev, Karras and Khamfula and Huizinga. However, while the studies mentioned typically focus on one aspect of the theory of optimum currency areas, there are very few attempts so far to include all relevant aspects in one framework. Overall, the findings suggest that a monetary union encompassing the whole SADC is infeasible at this stage, and unlikely in the foreseeable future. However, there is evidence for a monetary union consisting of a smaller group of countries, based on the long standing CMA arrangement. In addition to South Africa, Lesotho, Namibia and Swaziland, countries proposed for a monetary union are Botswana, Mozambique and Zambia. On the other hand, there is little evidence that the remaining countries would benefit from monetary unification in any time soon. Countries in the SADC generally differ much in their economic and political development. While some countries, namely South Africa, feature a relatively advanced economy, other countries like Congo and Zimbabwe experienced economic deterioration and high inflation rates. Especially the findings of low regional trade intensities do not hold much promise of large gains from transaction cost savings. Furthermore, both the comovement of business cycles and the correlation of output disturbances are strikingly low, indicating that a common monetary policy is unsuited for most countries. For a small number of countries with a history of high and volatile inflation rates, a common, stable currency would be however attractive in giving higher price stability and an institutional framework to insulate monetary policy from domestic fiscal pressures. Nevertheless, this path is unrealistic since it will be impossible to merge the interests of undisciplined countries with those of low inflation countries like South Africa. In sum, it is inadvisable to proceed with monetary unification to rashly. A monetary union is far from certain to promote regional integration and should not be seen as substitute for political initiatives to solve regional problems and restraining poor fiscal policies. The analysis is divided into three main sections: Section 2 reviews the theoretical implications from the theory of optimum currency areas. After introducing the benefits and costs from monetary unification, both the traditional and endogenous criteria are described to judge the desirability of a monetary union. Next, two models of monetary policy are presented so as to formalize the concept of monetary cooperation. Section 3 subsequently applies the criteria to the SADC. Special attention is given to the correlation of business cycles and comovement of output shocks. A structural vector autoregression analysis is carried out in order to separate underlying supply and demand shocks from output disturbances. Section 4 evaluates the feasibility of a monetary union in the SADC by drawing lessons from the CMA and EMU. Finally, further challenges in the transition to a monetary union are pointed out. Section 5 summarizes and concludes.Inhaltsverzeichnis:Table of Contents: List of Figuresiii List of Tablesiii List of Abbreviationsiii 1.Introduction1 2.Theoretical Foundations of the Optimum Currency Area Theory5 2.1Benefits and Costs of Monetary Integration7 2.1.1Benefits of Monetary Integration8 2.1.2Costs of Monetary Integration11 2.2Criteria of Optimum Currency Areas12 2.3Endogenous Effects in Monetary Integration17 2.4Policy Implications20 2.5Fiscal Distortions and Monetary Credibility22 2.6Theoretical Conclusions27 3.Theory and Empirical Evidence in the Southern African Development Community28 3.1The Economic Situation and Convergence in Southern Africa29 3.2Empirical Approaches of the Optimum Currency Area Theory and Evidence in Southern Africa38 3.3Correlation and Structure of Output Shocks and Business Cycles46 3.4Results52 4.Evaluating the feasibility of the SADC as a Monetary Union and future Prospects54 4.1The Experience of the Common Monetary Area56 4.2Lessons from the European Monetary Union58 4.3The role of Monetary and Fiscal Policies in Southern Africa60 4.4Challenges and the Path to a Monetary Union62 5.Summary and Conclusion68 AAppendix70 A.1Appendix for Section 2.570 A.2Appendix for Section 3.372Textprobe:Text Sample: Chapter 3, Theory and Empirical Evidence in the Southern African Development Community: To recapitulate: The main criteria which have been identified in the optimum currency area theory are (i) the correlation of output shocks, (ii) the extent of regional trade and production diversification, (iii) financial integration, (iv) price flexibility and factor mobility, and (v), inflation differentials and fiscal distortions. It is generally accepted that the formation of a monetary union requires participants to first achieve convergence in a variety of criteria. In this respect, fiscal and institutional convergence and low debt burdens are of special interest since both are a measure of sustainable economic policy. Furthermore, a similar level of per capita income indicates that countries have comparable institutional developments and interests. A monetary union that fails to satisfy these preconditions tends to be instable and may lack credibility from the very beginning. Over the last years however, a number countries in the SADC have experienced an increasing rate of divergence. The transition process in the SADC towards a monetary union is supported by a number of preceding arrangements. The Southern African Customs Union between South Africa, Botswana, Namibia, Lesotho and Swaziland has promoted a certain degree of regional trade. Economic integration has been however limited since the main objective of the customs union was to ease the collection of customs duties rather than industrial cooperation. Regional integration within the SADC advanced in 2008 with the Free Trade Area, which established zero tariffs for 85% of traded goods. However, for goods that have been declared as import-sensitive, most notably food and clothing, liberalization has been deferred. The overall impact on regional trade is therefore uncertain. Despite various efforts for trade liberalization in the past, political commitment has been low so far. Financial relations in the SADC are mainly limited to foreign direct investments. Nevertheless, some recent efforts have been made to harmonize national payment systems. Moreover, the SADC has agreed to work towards full currency convertibility. Since microeconomic data for Africa is scarce, the empirical evidence on optimum currency areas is mainly based on the correlation of output shocks and inflation or exchange rate differentials. Of the other criteria, factor mobility and price flexibility are especially hard to measure and estimates rely on very few observations. Not all of the criteria can therefore be analyzed in similar depth or for the same set of countries. Data was obtained from the World Bank World Development Indicators, the United Nations statistics division, the International Monetary Fund and the African Economic Outlook Database. 3.1, The Economic Situation and Convergence in Southern Africa: The SADC is unique among all regional arrangements in Africa due to the dominant role of South Africa. With a share of over 65% in real GDP (USD at 2000 prices) and 18% of the total population, South Africa is by far the largest and most industrialized economy in the region. In comparison, the remaining countries differ remarkably in size, income and economic structure. The Seychelles, the smallest country with little more than 85,000 residents, is the richest country with a real per capita income (in PPP) of over 19,000 USD in 2008 while Congo and Zimbabwe are among the poorest countries in the world with a real per capita income of approximately 290 USD and 185 USD respectively (see table 1). Life expectancy is low for most countries with an average of 53 years (ranging from 44 years in Zimbabwe to 73 years in the Seychelles) which is an indicator for the high poverty rate among the population. Income inequality as measured by the GINI Index varies considerably across contries, where South Africa (58), Angola (58) and Namibia (70) display one of the highest inequalities worldwide. Economic growth was robust for almost all countries since 1990 except in Congo and Zimbabwe and accelerated in Angola, Mauritius, Tanzania and Mozambique in recent years. Average annual GDP growth from 1990-2008 was highest for Angola (6.2%) due to increasing oil export revenues, but also the most volatile with a standard deviation of 10.5. In the four countries of the CMA, the growth performance was driven by the end of Apartheid in South Africa in 1994 and averaged to 3.7% from 1990-2008. The reeintegration of the South African economy in the world market attracted new foreign investors and trade, and more than tripled growth rates in the post-Apartheid period (from 1980-1992 the average was 1.1. On the other hand, Zimbabwe and until recently Congo experienced a drastic fall in income levels. While Congo still suffers from the aftermath of the civil war and political instability, Zimbabwe was run down by the Mugabe regime. Since at the same time these countries also have the lowest per capita income levels, it appears that the economies in the SADC diverge. Figure (4) illustrates the relationship between average per capita growth rates and relative income for 14 SADC members in the period 1990-2008. The results show that most countries with an initially high income level also had the highest average growth rates, which led to a widening of the income gap (striking examples are Botswana and Mauritius). The ambiguous relationship is a sign that positive developments in individual countries were determined by external factors rather than by improved regional cooperation. Production structure and trade: Production and export structures vary to a large extent among the SADC. While South Africa, Lesotho, Zimbabwe and Swaziland have a relatively advanced manufacturing sector, most other countries depend on primary goods production (except for Mauritius which is specialized in financial services). In the rural countries Malawi, Tanzania, Congo, Mozambique and Madagascar, agriculture still accounts for a large, although declining production share. Raw materials (mining and oil) are a main income source for Angola, Botswana, Zambia, Congo and Namibia and contribute to a large part of foreign reserves. Accordingly, those countries usually exhibit surpluses in their trade and current account (see table 1). Similar to production structures, the composition of merchandise trade reported in table (2) differs considerably across countries. A higher income level is generally associated with high export shares in manufacturing and primary products, while low income countries tend to export food products and import manufactures. As a result of different production and trade structures, the ratio of intra-industry trade are ineffectual small for all countries except South Africa, reflecting the low degree of industrialization. Regional trade in the SADC is dominated by South Africa, which exports high value manufactures in return for small amounts of raw material imports. Especially countries inside the SACU maintain important trade connections to South Africa. Commodity imports from South Africa represent on average over 44% of total imports in other SADC countries and account for approximately 80% of total imports in Lesotho, Swaziland, Namibia and Botswana (see table 3). On the other hand, export shares from the SADC towards South Africa amounts to only 15% on average with Swaziland (38%), Namibia and Lesotho (both 27%) having the strongest trade linkages. As a result, South Africa typically generates substantial regional trade surpluses. In contrast, trade integration among the remaining SADC countries is at very low levels, also because of a shortage in infrastructure. The only substantial trade flows are between neighboring Namibia and Angola (10% of Namibias exports), Zimbabwe and neighboring Zambia (14% of Zimbabwes exports) and landlocked Swaziland and Mozambique (9% of Swazilands exports). Although informal trade is assumed to account for a large proportion of total trade, most of the regional trade flows are negligible. To promote intra-regional trade, various efforts have been started in recent years. Overall trade has been substantially liberalized in the past and import restrictions reduced so that effective tariff protection rates declined in most countries. Accordingly, the average share of regional merchandise exports in percent to total merchandise exports increased from 8% in 1990 to 19% in 2008, and overall merchandise exports have grown on average by 10% per year since 1990.

ABSTRACTE‐learning systems are considerably changing education and organizational training. With the advancement of online‐based learning systems, learner control over the instructional process has emerged as a decisive factor in technology‐based forms of learning. However, conceptual work on the role of learner control in e‐learning has not advanced sufficiently to predict how autonomous learning impacts e‐learning effectiveness. To extend the research on the role of learner control in e‐learning and to examine its impact on e‐learning effectiveness, this study reviews 54 empirical articles on learner control during the period 1996–2013. The findings are then applied to derive a conceptual framework as a reference model to illustrate how learner control affects e‐learning effectiveness. The findings provide new insights into the role and different dimensions of learner control in e‐learning with implications for learning processes and learning outcomes.