Suchergebnisse

This is a preliminary application of McGhee and Stephanopoulos's efficiency gap measure to the state of Oregon for elections from 2012-2016. This is one of the measures currently being considered by the U.S. Supreme Court in the Gill v. Whitford gerrymandering case. Our results suggest that the current configuration of U.S, House districts minimizes the impact of a sizeable statewide Republican vote (@41-42%) that results in only 20% of the seats being given to this party. This disparity is less apparent in state senate and house seats, although the Democratic Party was at a distinct disadvantage in 2016 state senate elections. We also note the growing number of uncontested elections since this redistricting plan was first adopted in 2012.

This research examines the current restrictions on campaign contributions to nonfederal candidates in the states of Washington, Oregon, and California, as well as the legal challenges in the latter two states. The impact of unrestricted contributions in Oregon had the effect of larger campaign coffers, per registered voter, for state house, state senate, and gubernatorial races for the 2014 election, as well as a more prominent role for wealthy individual donors.

This research examines county‐level voter turnout in the state of Washington—a state where a majority of its counties have chosen to adopt an all‐mail electoral format over the past decade. Using the nearest neighbor match method to control for demographic and partisan variation among counties, this analysis of turnout in eight general and primary elections from 2004 to 2008 suggests that vote‐by‐mail has resulted in a modest boost in voter turnout during presidential election years and for special elections, but has little or no effect in congressional off‐year elections.Este estudio examina la concurrencia de votantes a nivel condado en el estado de Washington—un estado donde la mayoría de sus condados han elegido adoptar un formato electoral por correspondencia durante la última década. Usando el método estadístico NNS para controlar por variaciones demográficas y partidistas entre los condados, este análisis de concurrencia electoral en ocho elecciones generales y primarias de 2004 a 2008 sugiere que el voto por correo ha resultado en un incremento modesto en el número de votantes durante los años de elecciones presidenciales y en elecciones extraordinarias, pero ha tenido poco o nulo efecto en elecciones congresionales.

This article is an examination of the candidate preferences of 2008 superdelegates and of their role in determining the eventual Democratic nominee. Multivariate analysis suggests that female superdelegates were less likely to support Obama than were men; African-Americans, in contrast, were more likely to support his candidacy. A higher percentage of the popular vote received by Obama in the primary or caucus also influenced superdelegates to support him. The effect of contributions from Obama to superdelegates appeared to boost his support, but Clinton contributions had little impact. Also examined is the effect that superdelegates had on the nomination outcome. Analysis suggests that the impact of unpledged superdelegates on the 2008 Democratic nomination was significant. A substantial number of superdelegates continue to follow their own preferences, especially in states where Clinton was victorious, and this asymmetry made a difference in the nomination outcome. The race for the nomination could have been quite different without the presence of these unpledged superdelegates, or under alternative rules for delegation selection.

AbstractThis research examines the effect of disgruntlement among primary and caucus voters who supported U.S. presidential nomination losers—a potentially divisive nomination process. I analyze the general election voting behavior of primary and caucus voters in the 2008 presidential election to determine if differences exist between supporters of the winning nominee in each party and backers of other candidates who also sought the nomination. A multivariate analysis of the determinants of "loyal party vote" suggests that Clinton and Edwards supporters showed a significantly higher degree of defection in the general election, although this behavior did not occur among people who voted for Romney or Huckabee in their state's primary or caucus.

The research examines both aggregate and individual level data in the state of Oregon—the only state that conducts all of its elections by mail. The aggregate analysis of 46 statewide elections (1980–2008) suggests that the vote‐by‐mail format is a major stimulus to voter participation in special and presidential elections in Oregon, while its effect on turnout in primary and off‐year general elections is insignificant. Additional analysis of the official centralized voter registration lists in Oregon from 2000 to 2007 (approximately 2 million registered voters) confirms this tendency of Oregon voters to abstain in special elections, particularly for younger voters. These findings also suggest that voter turnout since the adoption of vote‐by‐mail in 1998 has been slightly lower for Republicans than for Democrats in primary elections and special elections.