Search results

AbstractThis contribution examines the fiscal and monetary policy legacies of the COVID‐19 pandemic. Thanks to exceptional support from governments and central banks, the world economy returned rapidly to growth following the dramatic global lockdowns of spring 2020. However, the huge fiscal and monetary interventions involved raise significant challenges for future growth and financial stability, especially given the sharp rise in inflation from mid‐2021. These challenges make implementing the ambitious Common Agenda of the United Nations difficult, especially as the war in Ukraine has greatly weakened international cooperation.

AbstractAs in many other fields, UK‐EU relations in financial services are set on a path of ever greater divergence. This follows logically from Theresa May's Lancaster House speech in January 2017 announcing that the UK would leave the single market. The City‐based policy community then quickly moved from hoping to keep passporting rights to the EU market, towards searching for access based on 'equivalence'. But as negotiations became more acrimonious following Boris Johnson's arrival in Downing Street and (Lord) David Frost's appointment as Chief Negotiator for Exiting the European Union in 2019, the prospects for a deal on financial services slipped away—perhaps surprisingly, given the centrality of finance to the British economy. For its part, the EU has been increasingly reluctant to reach a deal on financial services, taking instead the path to greater financial autonomy and regulatory control within the European Union and the Eurozone in particular. As a result, UK‐based firms no longer have access to the EU market, although there is still a tug‐of‐war of some consequence over the location of euro‐denominated derivative trading. Incremental divergence is now at work, as Britain pursues a strategy of competitiveness based on better regulation, within the international framework established after the global financial crisis of 2007–2009.

Le gouvernement britannique a tranché pour une sortie non seulement de l'UE, mais aussi du marché unique, avec un calendrier d'autant plus serré que les deux parties sont profondément opposées sur leurs objectifs principaux. Actuellement, la situation macro-économique du RU parait remarquablement résiliente, grâce à la croissance de la consommation des ménages encouragés par une politique fiscale moins austère sur certains aspects et une politique monétaire expansionniste. Cependant, les négociations s'annoncent compliquées dans des domaines tels que le règlement des engagements financiers britanniques en cours vis-à-vis de l'UE, l'immigration et le commerce. Les conditions du Brexit auront vraisemblablement des conséquences pour des pans entiers de l'économie britannique, dont les services financiers, la production automobile, l'industrie agro-alimentaire et l'éducation, pour ne prendre que quelques exemples parlants.