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Matopiba's agricultural frontier has been at the centre of political and scientific debates since its establishment in 2015. However, the impact of agribusiness expansion and intensification on land distribution in the region has yet to be studied. How has the establishment of Matopiba affected commodity crop production and agrarian reform in the region? This article analyses historical trends in soybean and corn production, and recent developments across Matopiba microregions. These are then juxtaposed with data on agrarian reform at microregion level. The findings help to clarify the ways in which agricultural frontier expansion has been reliant on government support and reveal conflicting agricultural development at work in Matopiba. While commodity crop production has increased in Matopiba as expected, agrarian reform has halted. The few agrarian reform settlements that have been created are in areas with lower agricultural potential within the limits of Matopiba's frontier.