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"In September of 2007 ORB, a British opinion polling firm, released an estimate that 1.2 million Iraqis had been killed in the conflict, subsequently lowering its estimate to 1 million. The authors compare three ORB polls and find important irregularities in ORB's mortality data in four central governorates of Iraq that account for more than 80% of the estimated deaths. These internal validity checks indicate that the ORB mortality data are not credible and would suggest a much lower estimate than ORB has published. They also analyze a number of specific error sources in the poll. Systematic errors, which include non-coverage and measurement errors, mostly point toward overestimation. Variable errors are also substantial but they are difficult to quantify in part due to incomplete disclosure of methodological details by ORB. External validity checks, including comparisons with two much larger and higher quality surveys, reinforce the conclusion that ORB has overestimated the number killed in Iraq by a wide margin. Thus, their paper answers a challenge facing the field of survey methodology, to explain how different surveys have produced such divergent mortality estimates for Iraq." (author's abstract)

Álvaro Uribe assumed the presidency of Colombia on 7August 2002, riding a wave of general dissatisfaction with the country's increasingly violent conflict. Uribe's ambitious plan to gain control over lawless territories and provide security to all sectors of society based on an expanded military and police presence and the creation of networks of civilian support has been controversial and has faced particularly fierce censure from human-rights organisations. Yet polemics have obscured some underlying facts about the conflict. It is possible to measure what is going on in terms of violent attacks, armed chashes, deaths and injuries. Such metrics, analysed rigorously, show incomplete but nonetheless unmistakable evidence that the Uribe government has had significant success in fighting the guerrillas while reducing civilian deaths. (Survival / SWP)

Rußland scheint im Vergleich zu anderen Ländern mit ähnlichem Lebensstandard eine signifikant höhere Qualität an Humankapital zu besitzen. Sinkende Investitionen im Erziehungs- und Forschungsbereich deuten jedoch darauf hin, daß sich das Humankapital zukünftig dem Lebensstandard anpassen wird. Eine grundsätzliche Reform des Erziehungs- und Bildungsbereichs sowie ein Abbau der für Rußland typischen exzessiven Spezialisierung sind dringend notwendig, um die Voraussetzungen für eine effektive Marktwirtschaft zu schaffen. (BIOst-Mrk)