Suchergebnisse

Background As many countries seek to slow the spread of COVID-19 without reimposing national restrictions, it has become important to track the disease at a local level to identify areas in need of targeted intervention. Methods In this prospective, observational study, we did modelling using longitudinal, self-reported data from users of the COVID Symptom Study app in England between March 24, and Sept 29, 2020. Beginning on April 28, in England, the Department of Health and Social Care allocated RT-PCR tests for COVID-19 to app users who logged themselves as healthy at least once in 9 days and then reported any symptom. We calculated incidence of COVID-19 using the invited swab (RT-PCR) tests reported in the app, and we estimated prevalence using a symptom-based method (using logistic regression) and a method based on both symptoms and swab test results. We used incidence rates to estimate the effective reproduction number, R(t), modelling the system as a Poisson process and using Markov Chain Monte-Carlo. We used three datasets to validate our models: the Office for National Statistics (ONS) Community Infection Survey, the Real-time Assessment of Community Transmission (REACT-1) study, and UK Government testing data. We used geographically granular estimates to highlight regions with rapidly increasing case numbers, or hotspots. Findings From March 24 to Sept 29, 2020, a total of 2 873 726 users living in England signed up to use the app, of whom 2 842 732 (98·9%) provided valid age information and daily assessments. These users provided a total of 120 192 306 daily reports of their symptoms, and recorded the results of 169 682 invited swab tests. On a national level, our estimates of incidence and prevalence showed a similar sensitivity to changes to those reported in the ONS and REACT-1 studies. On Sept 28, 2020, we estimated an incidence of 15 841 (95% CI 14 023–17 885) daily cases, a prevalence of 0·53% (0·45–0·60), and R(t) of 1·17 (1·15–1·19) in England. On a geographically granular level, on Sept 28, 2020, we detected 15 (75%) of the 20 regions with highest incidence according to government test data. Interpretation Our method could help to detect rapid case increases in regions where government testing provision is lower. Self-reported data from mobile applications can provide an agile resource to inform policy makers during a quickly moving pandemic, serving as a complementary resource to more traditional instruments for disease surveillance.

Hand grip strength is a widely used proxy of muscular fitness, a marker of frailty, and predictor of a range of morbidities and all-cause mortality. To investigate the genetic determinants of variation in grip strength, we perform a large-scale genetic discovery analysis in a combined sample of 195,180 individuals and identify 16 loci associated with grip strength (P<5 × 10−8) in combined analyses. A number of these loci contain genes implicated in structure and function of skeletal muscle fibres (ACTG1), neuronal maintenance and signal transduction (PEX14, TGFA, SYT1), or monogenic syndromes with involvement of psychomotor impairment (PEX14, LRPPRC and KANSL1). Mendelian randomization analyses are consistent with a causal effect of higher genetically predicted grip strength on lower fracture risk. In conclusion, our findings provide new biological insight into the mechanistic underpinnings of grip strength and the causal role of muscular strength in age-related morbidities and mortality. ; This research has been conducted using the UK Biobank Resource. The Fenland Study is supported by the UK Medical Research Council (MRC) (MC_UU_12015/1; MC_UU_12015/2; MC_UU_12015/3). EPIC-Norfolk is supported by the MRC (G401527, G1000143) and Cancer Research UK (A8257). The HCS is gratefully supported by the University of Newcastle (Australia) and the Fairfax Family Foundation. Sydney MAS is supported by the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC), grants ID568969, ID350833 and ID109308. Sydney MAS DNA was extracted by Genetic Repositories Australia, funded by NHMRC Enabling Grant 401184. The GEFOS Study, used as controls for the US and Jamaican athletes, was supported in part by NIH grants U01 HG004436 and P30 DK072488, and the Baltimore Geriatrics Research, Education, and Clinical Center of the Department of Veterans Affairs. The Novo Nordisk Foundation Center for Basic Metabolic Research is an independent Research Center at the University of Copenhagen partially funded by an unrestricted donation from the Novo Nordisk Foundation (www.metabol.ku.dk). TwinsUK was funded by the Wellcome Trust (WT), MRC, and European Union. The study also receives support from the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) BioResource Clinical Research Facility and Biomedical Research Centre based at Guy's and St Thomas' NHS Foundation Trust and King's College London. SNP Genotyping was performed by The WT Sanger Institute and National Eye Institute via NIH/CIDR. M.McC is a WT Senior Investigator and receives support from WT 090532 and 098381. TW is the recipient of a studentship from MedImmune. Research by A. Lucia is supported by Fondo de Investigaciones Sanitarias and Fondos Feder (grant # PI15/0558). EM-M. was a recipient of a Grant-in-Aid for JSPS Fellow from the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science. This work was supported in part by grants from the Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B) (15H03081 to NF) of the Japanese Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology and by a grant-in-aid for scientific research (to M. Miyachi) from the Japanese Ministry of Health, Labor, and Welfare. This work was further supported by NIH grants R01 AR41398 and U24 AG051129.