Suchergebnisse

Front Cover -- BEYOND AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS -- BEYOND AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS -- Copyright -- CONTENTS -- LIST OF CONTRIBUTORS -- ABOUT THE EDITORS -- ABOUT THE AUTHORS -- PREFACE -- 1 - Introduction: Grounding Climate Change, Vulnerability, and Adaptation in Africa -- 1. AGRICULTURE AND DEVELOPMENT IN AFRICA -- 2. CLIMATE CHANGE AND VARIABILITY AND AGRICULTURE IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA -- 3. IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURE IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA -- 4. VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION IN THE CONTEXT OF SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA -- 5. PROBLEM ORIENTATION AND LAYOUT -- REFERENCES -- 2 - Assessing Local Impacts of Climate Change on Crop Production in Southern Africa: Critiquing an Approach -- 1. INTRODUCTION -- 2. IMPORTANT TERMS AND DEFINITIONS -- 2.1 Emission Scenarios and Concentration Pathways -- 2.2 Generating Future Climate and Impact Projections -- 3. APPROACHES TO CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ASSESSMENT IN SOUTHERN AFRICAN AGRICULTURE -- 4. METHODOLOGY -- 5. LOCAL CLIMATE PROJECTIONS FOR SOUTHERN AFRICA -- 5.1 Climate Model Projections -- 5.2 Challenges With Climate Model Projections in Southern Africa -- 6. LOCAL CROP IMPACT PROJECTIONS FOR SOUTHERN AFRICA -- 6.1 Crop Model Projections -- 6.2 Challenges With Localized Crop Response Projections in Southern Africa -- 7. STRENGTHENING LOCAL-LEVEL IMPACT ASSESSMENT IN SOUTHERN AFRICA -- 8. BEYOND BIOPHYSICAL MODELING OF AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS -- 9. CONCLUSION -- REFERENCES -- FURTHER READING -- 3 - A Cross-Region Study: Climate Change Adaptation in Malawi's Agro-based Systems -- 1. INTRODUCTION -- 2. THEORETICAL AND EMPIRICAL CONSTRUCT -- 3. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION -- 3.1 Socioeconomic Characteristics of Sample Farmers -- 3.2 Drivers of Adaptation Choices -- 4. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS -- REFERENCES -- FURTHER READING

In a context of both long-term climatic changes and short-term climatic shocks, temporal dynamics profoundly influence ecosystems and societies. In low income contexts in the Tropics, where both exposure and vulnerability to climatic fluctuations is high, the frequency, duration, and trends in these fluctuations are important determinants of socio-ecological resilience. In this paper, the dynamics of six diverse socio-ecological systems (SES) across the Tropics – ranging from agricultural and horticultural systems in Africa and Oceania to managed forests in South East Asia and coastal systems in South America – are examined in relation to the 2015–16 El Niño, and the longer context of climatic variability in which this short-term 'event' occurred. In each case, details of the socio-ecological characteristics of the systems and the climate phenomena experienced during the El Niño event are described and reflections on the observed impacts of, and responses to it are presented. Drawing on these cases, we argue that SES resilience (or lack of) is, in part, a product of both long-term historical trends, as well as short-term shocks within this history. Political and economic lock-ins and dependencies, and the memory and social learning that originates from past experience, all contribute to contemporary system resilience. We propose that the experiences of climate shocks can provide a window of insight into future ecosystem responses and, when combined with historical perspectives and learning from multiple contexts and cases, can be an important foundation for efforts to build appropriate long-term resilience strategies to mediate impacts of changing and uncertain climates.

In a context of both long-term climatic changes and short-term climatic shocks, temporal dynamics profoundly influence ecosystems and societies. In low income contexts in the Tropics, where both exposure and vulnerability to climatic fluctuations is high, the frequency, duration, and trends in these fluctuations are important determinants of socio-ecological resilience. In this paper, the dynamics of six diverse socio-ecological systems (SES) across the Tropics – ranging from agricultural and horticultural systems in Africa and Oceania to managed forests in South East Asia and coastal systems in South America – are examined in relation to the 2015–16 El Niño, and the longer context of climatic variability in which this short-term 'event' occurred. In each case, details of the socio-ecological characteristics of the systems and the climate phenomena experienced during the El Niño event are described and reflections on the observed impacts of, and responses to it are presented. Drawing on these cases, we argue that SES resilience (or lack of) is, in part, a product of both long-term historical trends, as well as short-term shocks within this history. Political and economic lock-ins and dependencies, and the memory and social learning that originates from past experience, all contribute to contemporary system resilience. We propose that the experiences of climate shocks can provide a window of insight into future ecosystem responses and, when combined with historical perspectives and learning from multiple contexts and cases, can be an important foundation for efforts to build appropriate long-term resilience strategies to mediate impacts of changing and uncertain climates.