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In 2015, diesel cars accounted for 41.3% of the total passenger car fleet in Europe. While harmonized emissions limits are implemented at the EU level, on-road emissions of diesel cars have been found to be up to 16 times higher than those measured in test stands. These excess emissions have been estimated to result in increased PM2.5 and ozone exposure causing approximately 5000 premature mortalities per year in Europe. Interventions aimed at mitigating these damages need to take into account the physical and political boundaries in Europe, where emissions from one country may have an impact on neighboring populaces (trans-boundary impacts). To date, the trans-boundary implications of excess NOx emissions in Europe are not understood and only excess NOx emissions have only been studied at the fleet level and for Volkswagen group cars. In this study, a distribution of emission factors is derived from existing on-road measurements for 10 manufacturers, covering 90% of all new vehicle registrations in Europe from 2000 to 2015. These distributions are combined with inventory data and driving behavior to quantify excess emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) in Europe in 2015. To quantify the changes in PM2.5 and ozone concentrations resulting from these emissions, we use a state-of-the-art chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem). Concentration-response functions from the epidemiological literature are applied to estimate the premature mortality outcomes and the number of life-years lost associated with degraded air quality. Uncertainty in the input parameters is propagated through the analysis using a Monte Carlo approach. We find that 70% of the total health impacts from excess NOx are due to trans-boundary emissions. For example, 61% of the impacts in Germany of total excess NOx emissions are caused by emissions released in other countries. These results highlight the need for a coordinated policy response at the European level. In addition, we find that total emissions accounting for country-specific fleet mixes and driving behaviors vary between manufacturers by a factor of 10 and mortality impacts per kilometer driven by a factor of 8. Finally, we find that if all manufacturers reduced emissions of the vehicles currently on the road to those of the best-performing manufacturer in the corresponding Euro standard, approximately 1900 premature deaths per year could be avoided.

In 2015, diesel cars accounted for 41.3% of the total passenger car fleet in Europe. While harmonized emissions limits are implemented at the EU level, on-road emissions of diesel cars have been found to be up to 16 times higher than those measured in test stands. These excess emissions have been estimated to result in increased PM2.5 and ozone exposure causing approximately 5000 premature mortalities per year in Europe. Interventions aimed at mitigating these damages need to take into account the physical and political boundaries in Europe, where emissions from one country may have an impact on neighboring populaces (trans-boundary impacts). To date, the trans-boundary implications of excess NOx emissions in Europe are not understood and only excess NOx emissions have only been studied at the fleet level and for Volkswagen group cars. In this study, a distribution of emission factors is derived from existing on-road measurements for 10 manufacturers, covering 90% of all new vehicle registrations in Europe from 2000 to 2015. These distributions are combined with inventory data and driving behavior to quantify excess emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) in Europe in 2015. To quantify the changes in PM2.5 and ozone concentrations resulting from these emissions, we use a state-of-the-art chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem). Concentration-response functions from the epidemiological literature are applied to estimate the premature mortality outcomes and the number of life-years lost associated with degraded air quality. Uncertainty in the input parameters is propagated through the analysis using a Monte Carlo approach. We find that 70% of the total health impacts from excess NOx are due to trans-boundary emissions. For example, 61% of the impacts in Germany of total excess NOx emissions are caused by emissions released in other countries. These results highlight the need for a coordinated policy response at the European level. In addition, we find that total emissions accounting for country-specific fleet mixes and driving behaviors vary between manufacturers by a factor of 10 and mortality impacts per kilometer driven by a factor of 8. Finally, we find that if all manufacturers reduced emissions of the vehicles currently on the road to those of the best-performing manufacturer in the corresponding Euro standard, approximately 1900 premature deaths per year could be avoided.

In September 2015, the Volkswagen Group (VW) admitted the use of 'defeat devices' designed to lower emissions measured during VW vehicle testing for regulatory purposes. Globally, 11 million cars sold between 2008 and 2015 are affected, including about 2.6 million in Germany. On-road emissions tests have yielded mean on-road NO[subscript x] emissions for these cars of 0.85 g km⁻¹, over four times the applicable European limit of 0.18 g km⁻¹. This study estimates the human health impacts and costs associated with excess emissions from VW cars driven in Germany. A distribution of on-road emissions factors is derived from existing measurements and combined with sales data and a vehicle fleet model to estimate total excess NO[subscript x] emissions. These emissions are distributed on a 25 by 28 km grid covering Europe, using the German Federal Environmental Protection Agency's (UBA) estimate of the spatial distribution of NO[subscript x] emissions from passenger cars in Germany. We use the GEOS-Chem chemistry-transport model to predict the corresponding increase in population exposure to fine particulate matter and ozone in the European Union, Switzerland, and Norway, and a set of concentration-response functions to estimate mortality outcomes in terms of early deaths and of life-years lost. Integrated over the sales period (2008–2015), we estimate median mortality impacts from VW excess emissions in Germany to be 1200 premature deaths in Europe, corresponding to 13 000 life-years lost and 1.9 billion EUR in costs associated with life-years lost. Approximately 60% of mortality costs occur outside Germany. For the current fleet, we estimate that if on-road emissions for all affected VW vehicles in Germany are reduced to the applicable European emission standard by the end of 2017, this would avert 29 000 life-years lost and 4.1 billion 2015 EUR in health costs (median estimates) relative to a counterfactual case with no recall.

In September 2015, the Volkswagen Group (VW) admitted the use of 'defeat devices' designed to lower emissions measured during VW vehicle testing for regulatory purposes. Globally, 11 million cars sold between 2008 and 2015 are affected, including about 2.6 million in Germany. On-road emissions tests have yielded mean on-road NO[subscript x] emissions for these cars of 0.85 g km[superscript −1], over four times the applicable European limit of 0.18 g km[superscript −1]. This study estimates the human health impacts and costs associated with excess emissions from VW cars driven in Germany. A distribution of on-road emissions factors is derived from existing measurements and combined with sales data and a vehicle fleet model to estimate total excess NO[subscript x] emissions. These emissions are distributed on a 25 by 28 km grid covering Europe, using the German Federal Environmental Protection Agency's (UBA) estimate of the spatial distribution of NO[subscript x] emissions from passenger cars in Germany. We use the GEOS-Chem chemistry-transport model to predict the corresponding increase in population exposure to fine particulate matter and ozone in the European Union, Switzerland, and Norway, and a set of concentration-response functions to estimate mortality outcomes in terms of early deaths and of life-years lost. Integrated over the sales period (2008–2015), we estimate median mortality impacts from VW excess emissions in Germany to be 1200 premature deaths in Europe, corresponding to 13 000 life-years lost and 1.9 billion EUR in costs associated with life-years lost. Approximately 60% of mortality costs occur outside Germany. For the current fleet, we estimate that if on-road emissions for all affected VW vehicles in Germany are reduced to the applicable European emission standard by the end of 2017, this would avert 29 000 life-years lost and 4.1 billion 2015 EUR in health costs (median estimates) relative to a counterfactual case with no recall. ; Germany. Umweltbundesamt (UBA)

In September 2015, the Volkswagen Group (VW) admitted the use of 'defeat devices' designed to lower emissions measured during VW vehicle testing for regulatory purposes. Globally, 11 million cars sold between 2008 and 2015 are affected, including about 2.6 million in Germany. On-road emissions tests have yielded mean on-road NOx emissions for these cars of 0.85 g km 1, over four times the applicable European limit of 0.18 g km 1. This study estimates the human health impacts and costs associated with excess emissions from VW cars driven in Germany. A distribution of on-road emissions factors is derived from existing measurements and combined with sales data and a vehicle fleet model to estimate total excess NOx emissions. These emissions are distributed on a 25 by 28 km grid covering Europe, using the German Environmental Protection Agency's (UBA) estimate of the spatial distribution of NOx emissions from passenger cars in Germany. We use the GEOS-Chem chemistry-transport model to predict the corresponding increase in population exposure to fine particulate matter and ozone in the European Union, Switzerland, and Norway, and a set of concentration-response functions to estimate mortality outcomes in terms of early deaths and of life-years lost. Integrated over the sales period (2008–2015), we estimate median mortality impacts from VW excess emissions in Germany to be 1 200 premature deaths in Europe, corresponding to 13 000 life-years lost and 1.9 billion EUR in costs associated with life-years lost. Approximately 60% of mortality costs occur outside Germany. For the current fleet, we estimate that if on-road emissions for all affected VW vehicles in Germany are reduced to the applicable European emission standard by the end of 2017, this would avert 29 000 life-years lost and 4.1 billion 2015 EUR in health costs (median estimates) relative to a counterfactual case with no recall. ; We would like to thank the German Umweltbundesamt, in particular Mr Stefan Feigenspan and Mr Michael Kotzulla, for their valuable help in obtaining data on the spatial distribution of NOx emissions in Germany.