Suchergebnisse

Bolje javne politike mogu voditi većem životnom standardu i povjerenju u javne institucije. Svrha ovog članka je pružiti konceptualni okvir ideje donošenja javnih politika temeljem dokaza kao polazišta pri odlučivanju o javnim politikama. Temeljni problem odlučivanja donositelja javnih politika je neizvjesnost o budućem učinku javne politike, a neizvjesnost je teorijski moguće analizirati tzv. von Neumann-Morgenstern teorijom korisnosti. U primjeni teorije korisnosti, donošenje javnih politika temeljem dokaza ima potencijal pospješiti odlučivanje. Člankom je opisana hijerarhija dokaza (razina 1, 2 i 3) o učinkovitosti javnih politika te su pruženi primjeri više evaluacija JP - dokaza razine 1 u Republici Hrvatskoj. Nadalje, provedeno je anketno ispitivanje stručnjaka za javne financije o evaluaciji JP u Republici Hrvatskoj i pružena su dva pronalaska, prvo, praksa evaluacija JP je sporadična, i drugo, na preddiplomskoj, diplomskoj ili doktorskoj razini osam javnih sveučilišta, ekonomiste i politologe se ne poučava kolegij vezan uz mikroekonometrijske evaluacije JP (dokaz razina 1). Iskoraci u praksi evaluacije JP mogu voditi povećanju životnog standarda i povećanju povjerenja u javne institucije, međutim, da bi se to ostvarilo, prije svega treba postojati veća potražnja za evaluacijama, a zatim je potrebno i obrazovati stručnjake koji mogu proizvesti evaluacije JP prema međunarodnim standardima.

PurposeCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has had a tremendous negative effect on the economies around the world by infusing uncertainty into supply chains. In this paper, the authors address two important research questions (RQs): (1) did COVID-19 wage subsidies impact small and medium enterprises (SMEs) to become more flexible towards the SMEs' business customers and (2) can such flexibility be a source for greater resilience to the crisis? As a result, the authors investigate the relationship between governmental wage subsidies and SMEs' flexibility norms towards the SMEs' business customers (study 1). The authors further uncover when and how flexibility towards existing customers contributes to SME resilience (study 2).Design/methodology/approachThe authors frame the inquiry under the resource dependence theory (RDT) and behavioural additionality principle. The authors use survey methodology and test the assumptions in study 1 (n = 225) and study 2 (n = 95) on a sample of SMEs from various business-to-business (B2B) industries in Croatia.FindingsOverall, in study 1, the authors find that SMEs that receive governmental wage subsidies have greater flexibility norms. However, this relationship is significantly conditioned by SMEs' competitive profile. SMEs that strongly rely on innovation are more willing to behave flexibly when receiving subsidies, whereas SMEs driven by branding do not. Study 2 sheds light on when flexibility towards existing customers increases SME resilience. Findings show that flexibility norms are negatively related to resilience, but this relationship is becoming less negative amongst SMEs with lower financial dependence on the largest customer.Originality/valueThis study extends RDT in the area of firm–government relationships by showing that wage subsidies became a source of power for the Government and a source of dependency for SMEs. In such cases, the SMEs receiving those subsidies align with the governmental agenda and exhibit higher flexibility towards the SMEs' customers. Drawing arguments from behavioural additionality, the authors show that this effect varies due to SMEs' attention and organisational priorities resulting from different competitive profiles. Ultimately, the authors showcase that higher flexibility norms can contribute to resilience if the SME restructures its dependency by having a less-concentrated customer base.

Public procurement contracts (PPCs) of goods, services and works is about one tenth of global gross domestic product. Much research has been conducted on government spending and its aggregate effects, but evidence is scarce at the micro-level. This study exploits sealed-bid PPC auctions of construction works, discontinuity in bidders' win margin and firms' daily employment variation to provide a causal estimate of winning a PPC on firms' employment. Winning a PPC has a small positive impact on a firm's short-run employment. The study investigates mechanisms and heterogeneity that can explain the initial small magnitudes. No compelling evidence is found in favour of political connections, an information leakage channel or PPC size as explanations for the small magnitude. A investigation of longer period shows the impact phases out in less than a year. The lack of a long-term impact is due to runners-up winning more PPCs and runners-up substituting towards more market revenue in the year after closely losing a PPC. Finally, the impacts are concentrated in construction firms that conduct the majority of contracted work in-house. The final estimation shows the effect is about four new employees per PPC with a public cost per job created at €45,200 [€34,200 - €66,200].

Public procurement contracts (PPCs) of goods, services and works is about one tenth of global gross domestic product. Much research has been conducted on government spending and its aggregate effects, but evidence is scarce at the micro-level. This study exploits sealed-bid PPC auctions of construction works, discontinuity in bidders' win margin and firms' daily employment variation to provide a causal estimate of winning a PPC on firms' employment. Winning a PPC has a small positive impact on a firm's short-run employment. The study investigates mechanisms and heterogeneity that can explain the initial small magnitudes. No compelling evidence is found in favour of political connections, an information leakage channel or PPC size as explanations for the small magnitude. A investigation of longer period shows the impact phases out in less than a year. The lack of a long-term impact is due to runners-up winning more PPCs and runners-up substituting towards more market revenue in the year after closely losing a PPC. Finally, the impacts are concentrated in construction firms that conduct the majority of contracted work in-house. The final estimation shows the effect is about four new employees per PPC with a public cost per job created at €45,200 [€34,200 - €66,200].

Abstract
This paper evaluates the effect of a self-employment grant scheme for unemployed individuals—designed to ease the first 12 months of business operation—on firm growth, survival, and labor market reintegration in Croatia in the 2010–2017 period. Grants offered a moderate amount of finances (up to 50% of average annual gross salary) and absorbed only 5% of funds allocated to active labor market policies (ALMPs), but accounted for 10% of new firms opened throughout the years. We contribute to the literature on self-employment grants with several novel findings. Exploiting the longitudinal structure of the unemployment episodes dataset, we find that individuals who finish their spell with a grant have a significantly lower probability of returning to unemployment. The policy is particularly effective for individuals who would have otherwise had labor market opportunities (men, more educated, prime-age workers, previously employed), individuals who became unemployed after inactivity and lost their job due to a firm's closure—which demonstrates that self-employment subsidies can be effective in ameliorating unemployment. However, the policy was not effective for longer unemployed individuals. At the firm level, we find descriptive evidence that limited liability firms opened via a grant have lower growth potential and worse survival profile, while unlimited liability firms—even though a sizable portion of them closes after a required 12-month grant period—have a more favorable survival profile. Finally, we also find that the effectiveness of these grants has increased throughout the years, indicating toward the direction of institutional learning.

Impact evaluations of entrepreneurship policies targeting young firms have been somewhat neglected thus far in the literature. This paper seeks to contribute to this topic in the context of a long recession period, such as the one experienced in Croatia from 2009 to 2014. These policies awarded small grant amounts for activities such as business plan development, consultancy, marketing and office renovation. Awarding small grant amounts to many firms might be tempting for politicians, but is this political populism or smart policy? This paper estimates the impact of matching grants for business development on three types of outcomes: bank loans, firm survival and firm performance. The full firm-level census dataset was supplemented with entrepreneur-level court register and firm-level data on grant recipients. Policy evaluation was performed using matching techniques with a combination of nearest neighbor and exact matching, and robustness of results was tested using a placebo test and Rosenbaum bounds. The results show that grants had a positive impact on firm survival after the recession, and on obtaining long-term bank loans during the recession. However, no empirical support was found for the grants' impact on growth in turnover, employment and labor productivity. ; Analize utjecaja politika usmjerenih na mlada poduzeća poprilično su zanemarivana u literaturi. Ovaj članak nastoji pridonijeti razvoju ove teme u kontekstu dugog recesijskog razdoblja, poput onog u Republici Hrvatskoj između 2009. i 2014. godine. Analizirane politike za razvoj poduzetništva su dodjeljivale male potpore za aktivnosti poput razvoja poslovnog plana, savjetovanja, marketinga i uređenja unutarnjeg radnog prostora. Dodjeljivanje malih potpora velikom broju poduzeća zvuči politički primamljivo, no radi li se o političkom populizmu ili promišljenoj ekonomskoj politici? U članku se procjenjuje utjecaj potpora za razvoj poslovanja na tri vrste ishoda: bankovne kredite, preživljavanje na tržištu i uspješnost poduzeća. Mikropodaci na razini poduzeća nadopunjeni su podacima sudskog registra na razini poduzetnika te podacima o primateljima bespovratnih sredstava. Analiza utjecaja politike provedena je primjenom tehnika uparivanja, a robusnost rezultata je testirana primjenom placebo testa i Rosenbaum granica. Rezultati pokazuju pozitivan utjecaj potpora na preživljavanje poduzeća nakon recesije, kao i pozitivan utjecaj na dobivanje dugoročnih bankovnih kredita tijekom recesije. Međutim, nije pronađen empirijski oslonac za utjecaj potpora na rast prihoda od prodaje, zaposlenosti i produktivnosti rada.

How effective are direct government policies for boosting exports? We answer this question with a structured overview of 34 studies covering 26 countries around the world, and in doing so, we provide nine findings. We show export boosting policies are heterogenenous by design and include export promotion policies, public grants for exporters, public export guarantee schemes, subsidised export loans, and randomised foreign market access programmes. Our review provides insights into policy effectiveness with respect to extensive and intensive export margins as well as firms' production function inputs and its outputs. Heterogeneity of effects across firm characteristics is emphasised and the discussion is enriched with new evidence on spillover effects from export boosting policies. Finally, we provide back-of-the-envelope calculations of aggregate macroeconomic effects and give recommendations for policymakers. Our findings show export boosting policies are relevant and proven-to-be-effective policy instruments.

Several recent papers draw attention to a lack of rigorous research on public policies supporting women entrepreneurs' competitiveness. This paper evaluates the effect of small business development gender specific matching grants using a quasi-experimental approach. The grants have a positive effect on firm survival, as well as positive effects on obtaining bank loans, turnover, value added, employment, and total factor productivity. Heterogeneous treatment effects show that the grants increase the chance of young women entrepreneurs' firm survival and are even more effective for firms owned by mature women. Cost-benefit analysis estimates an increase in value added, which outweighs scheme-induced costs by 80% in the short-run and 170% in the long run. ; Nekoliko recentnih istraživanja skreće pozornost na nedostatak analiza utjecaja javnih politika koje potiču konkurentnost poduzeća u vlasništvu žena. Ovo istraživanje procjenjuje učinak javnog financiranja u obliku manjih bespovratnih potpora namijenjenih isključivo ženama poduzetnicama. Rezultati ukazuju na pozitivan utjecaj bespovratnih potpora na preživljavanje poduzeća, kao i pozitivne učinke na dobivanje bankovnih kredita te povećanje poslovnih prihoda, dodane vrijednosti, zaposlenosti i ukupne faktorske produktivnosti. Heterogeni učinci ukazuju na veću vjerojatnost preživljavanja poduzeća u vlasništvu mlađih žena, dok učinci na poduzeća u vlasništvu starijih žena poduzetnica ukazuju na ekonomski značajnije pozitivne efekte. Analiza troškova i koristi u kratkom roku procjenjuje 80% više stvorene dodane vrijednosti od troškova uzrokovanih potporom, dok se u dugom roku procjenjuje 170% više stvorene dodane vrijednosti od troškova uzrokovanih potporom.

Bankruptcy restructuring procedures are used in most legal systems to decide the fate of businesses facing financial hardship. We study how bargaining failures in such procedures impact the economic performance of participating firms in the context of Croatia, which introduced a "pre-bankruptcy settlement" (PBS) process in the wake of the Great Recession of 2007 - 2009. Local institutions left over from the communist era provide annual financial statements for both sides of more than 180,000 debtor-creditor pairs, enabling us to address selection into failed negotiations by matching a rich set of creditor and debtor characteristics. Failures to settle at the PBS stage due to idiosyncratic bargaining problems, which effectively delays entry into the standard bankruptcy procedure, leads to a lower rate of survival among debtors as well as reduced employment, revenue, and profits. We also track how bargaining failures diffuse through the network of creditors, finding a significant negative effect on small creditors, but not others. Our results highlight the impact of delay and the importance of structuring bankruptcy procedures to rapidly resolve uncertainty about firms' future prospects.