Suchergebnisse

A predictive case‐cohort model was applied to Japanese data to analyze the interaction between challenge and stability factors for bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) for the period 1985–2020. BSE risk in cattle was estimated as the expected number of detectable cases per year. The model was comprised of a stochastic spreadsheet calculation model with the following inputs: (1) the origin and quantity of live cattle and meat and bone meal imported into Japan, (2) the age distribution of native cattle, and (3) the estimated annual basic reproduction ratio (R0) for BSE. The estimated probability of having zero detectable cases in Japan in 2015 was 0.90 (95% CI 0.83–0.95). The corresponding value for 2020 was 0.99 (95% CI 0.98–0.99). The model predicted that detectable cases may occur in Japan beyond 2015 because of the assumption that continued transmission was permitted to occur (albeit at a very low level) after the 2001 ban on the importation and domestic use of all processed animal proteins for the production of animal feed and for fertilizer. These results reinforce the need for animal health authorities to monitor the efficacy of control measures so that the future course of the BSE epidemic in Japan can be predicted with greater certainty.

OBJECTIVES: The objectives were first, to modify the PRECEDE-PROCEED model and to use it is as a basis for planning a three year intervention trial that aims to reduce injury to child pedestrians. A second objective was to assess the suitability of this process for planning such a relatively complex program. SETTING: The project was carried out in 47 primary schools in three local government areas, in the Perth metropolitan area. METHODS: The program was developed, based on extensive needs assessment incorporating formative evaluations. Epidemiological, psychosocial, environmental, educational, and demographic information was gathered, organised, and prioritised. The PRECEDE-PROCEED model was used to identify the relevant behavioural and environmental risk factors associated with child pedestrian injuries in the target areas. Modifiable causes of those behavioural and environmental factors were delineated. A description of how the model facilitated the development of program objectives and subobjectives which were linked to strategy objectives, and strategies is provided. RESULTS: The process used to plan the child pedestrian injury prevention program ensured that a critical assessment was undertaken of all the relevant epidemiological, behavioural, and environmental information. The gathering, organising, and prioritising of the information was facilitated by the process. CONCLUSIONS: The use of a model such as PRECEDE-PROCEED can enhance the development of a child injury prevention program. In particular, the process can facilitate the identification of appropriate objectives which in turn facilitates the development of suitable interventions and evaluation methods.

BACKGROUND: Heavy vehicle transportation continues to grow internationally; yet crash rates are high, and the risk of injury and death extends to all road users. The work environment for the heavy vehicle driver poses many challenges; conditions such as scheduling and payment are proposed risk factors for crash, yet the precise measure of these needs quantifying. Other risk factors such as sleep disorders including obstructive sleep apnoea have been shown to increase crash risk in motor vehicle drivers however the risk of heavy vehicle crash from this and related health conditions needs detailed investigation. METHODS AND DESIGN: The proposed case control study will recruit 1034 long distance heavy vehicle drivers: 517 who have crashed and 517 who have not. All participants will be interviewed at length, regarding their driving and crash history, typical workloads, scheduling and payment, trip history over several days, sleep patterns, health, and substance use. All participants will have administered a nasal flow monitor for the detection of obstructive sleep apnoea. DISCUSSION: Significant attention has been paid to the enforcement of legislation aiming to deter problems such as excess loading, speeding and substance use; however, there is inconclusive evidence as to the direction and strength of associations of many other postulated risk factors for heavy vehicle crashes. The influence of factors such as remuneration and scheduling on crash risk is unclear; so too the association between sleep apnoea and the risk of heavy vehicle driver crash. Contributory factors such as sleep quality and quantity, body mass and health status will be investigated. Quantifying the measure of effect of these factors on the heavy vehicle driver will inform policy development that aims toward safer driving practices and reduction in heavy vehicle crash; protecting the lives of many on the road network.