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▪ Abstract  In recent years, volatility in the electoral fortunes of major political parties in Western democracies has invigorated scholarly debate over the roles that parties play in the political process and the positions that they occupy in the public mind. Data from national election surveys and inter-election public opinion polls reveal that parties have declined in the minds of citizens in the United States, Canada, and Great Britain over the past 40 years. Varying combinations of decreasing percentages of strong party identifiers, increasing percentages of independents and nonidentifiers, and increasing individual-level instability in party identifications indicate that the electorates of all three countries have experienced significant "dealignments of degree." The three cases are not atypical; survey evidence indicates that partisan attachments have weakened in a wide variety of mature democracies.

How voters' federal political choices affect their local preferences and vice versa; based on analysis of all available national inter-election surveys; 1974-93.

AbstractThis paper uses newly available Canadian data to address long‐standing debates on the rationality of the political economy of party support. We find that the subjective economic variable driving governing party support is sociotropic, not egocentric, and,pacerecent American and British studies, prospections do not dominate retrospections. Rather, models using national economic evaluations encompass rivals employing national expectations, personal expectations and perceived trends in personal expectations. Egocentric considerations are not irrelevant; rather, their effects on party support are indirect. We argue that these findings are consistent with an image of voters whose party‐support decisions are governed by a 'rough‐and‐ready' rationality appropriate to the information available to them and the politico‐economic systems of contemporary Western democracies.

This paper uses newly available Canadian data to address long-standing debates on the rationality of the political economy of party support. We find that the subjective economic variable driving governing party support is sociotropic, not egocentric, and, pace recent American and British studies, prospections do not dominate retrospections. Rather, models using national economic evaluations encompass rivals employing national expectations, personal expectations and perceived trends in personal expectations. Egocentric considerations are not irrelevant; rather, their effects on party support are indirect. We argue that these findings are consistent with an image of voters whose party-support decisions are governed by a "rough-and-ready" rationality appropriate to the information available to them and the politico-economic systems of contemporary Western democracies. (European Journal of Political Research / FUB)

The argument that personal economic expectations drive support for British governing parties has received wide attention. This article employs aggregate data for the 1979–92 period to assess the effects of personal expectations, other subjective economic variables and evaluations of prime ministerial performance in rival party-support models. Analyses of competing models, including error correction specifications that take into account nonstationarity in the time series of interest, indicate that the personal expectations variants generally do very well, although they do not outperform one or more alternatives incorporating other types of economic evaluations. The error correction models show that the prime minister's approval ratings have significant short-term and long-term effects on governing party popularity.

The argument that personal economic expectations drive support for British governing parties has received wide attention. This article employs aggregate data for the 1979-92 period to assess the effects of personal expectations, other subjective economic variables and evaluations of prime ministerial performance in rival party-support models. Analyses of competing models, including error correction specifications that take into account nonstationarity in the time series of interest, indicate that the personal expectations variants generally do very well, although they do not outperform one or more alternatives incorporating other types of economic evaluations. The error correction models show that the prime minister's approval ratings have significant short-term and long-term effects on governing party popularity. (British Journal of Political Science / AuD)