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The article by Jacob Mundy in this issue of Security Dialogue draws attention to the ongoing debate between deconstructivists and quantitative researchers. The article criticizes the current state of the 'new literature on civil wars' and offers some recommendations as to how this literature might be improved. Yet, as a scholar on the receiving end of it, I am unable to make use of Mundy's critique. I do not understand the premises for his article; I am not convinced by the case of Algeria; and I am unable to understand the recommendations made at the end of the piece. In other words, the dialogue here is not working. In large parts, this failure in communication is due to the fact that the relevant literatures very rarely connect with each other. The use of concepts in Mundy's article might represent one of the few occasions on which they do. I propose a set of recommendations that I hope might assist in rendering the dialogue between these currently estranged literatures less futile.

Can states reduce the risk of violent political conflict by simply refusing to collect or publish data on their ethnic makeup and change? This study addresses a neglected aspect of the ethnic conflict literature and provides the first systematic empirical study of the significance of recording ethnic affiliation in censuses for the risk of armed conflict. A general empirical regularity noted in the ethnic heterogeneity and civil war literature is that ethnicity is associated with a somewhat higher risk of conflict in bipolar societies. However, few quantitative studies focus on how changes in the relative strength of groups may affect the risk of civil war. Some recent literature indicates that differential growth may destabilize heterogeneous democracies internally. In democratic societies, political power is distributed according to popular support in elections. A changing balance between groups may thus alter the distribution of power in regimes where ethnic, linguistic or religious divisions to a certain extent determine voting behavior, and this may potentially lead to political instability and ultimately civil conflict. We argue that the relationship between differential growth and instability and violence may be even more important in semidemocracies with electoral systems, but with weak and inconsistent political institutions. We start from the premise that, for differential growth to become a potential driver of instability and violent conflict, information about such change has to be recorded with a national census and actually published. In a cross-national time-series study we investigate whether countries publishing identity data from censuses are at a greater risk of experiencing low-intensity armed conflict. We find that the effect of publishing data on group size is indeed mediated through political institutions. In countries with stable institutions, publication of population identity data is associated with a lower risk of conflict, whereas unstable institutional arrangements are associated with an increase conflict risk when publishing such data.

It is commonly held that political leaders favour people of the same ethnic origin. We test this argument of ethno-political favouritism by studying variations in the usage of maternal health care services across groups in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). More specifically, we link geo-referenced individual-level data from the Demographic and Health Surveys on 601,311 births by 399,908 mothers in 31 countries during the period 1981–2014 with data on the settlement of ethnic groups and their political status. Our results indicate that women benefit from the shift that brings co-ethnics into power, increasing the probability of receiving maternal health care services. The effect strengthens with increased competitiveness around elections. We advance the current literature in four important ways. Firstly, we undertake the first analysis that utilizes shifts in ethno-political status for the same individual, effectively eliminating competing time-invariant explanations to that of shifts in ethno-political status. Secondly, since SSA governments often incorporate multiple groups, we test the effect of patronage on being co-ethnic with cabinet members in general, and not only the president. Thirdly, health services constitute the public good most desired by citizens of SSA. Our measure captures a vital health service that is highly desired across groups. An increase in usage likely reflects genuine trickle-down effects of having co-ethnics in power, a crucial ingredient in building popular support for ethnic patrons. Fourthly, we show that electoral competition is an important conditioner of ethno-political favouritism.

It is commonly held that political leaders favour people of the same ethnic origin. We test this argument of ethno-political favouritism by studying variations in the usage of maternal health care services across groups in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). More specifically, we link geo-referenced individual-level data from the Demographic and Health Surveys on 601,311 births by 399,908 mothers in 31 countries during the period 1981–2014 with data on the settlement of ethnic groups and their political status. Our results indicate that women benefit from the shift that brings co-ethnics into power, increasing the probability of receiving maternal health care services. The effect strengthens with increased competitiveness around elections. We advance the current literature in four important ways. Firstly, we undertake the first analysis that utilizes shifts in ethno-political status for the same individual, effectively eliminating competing time-invariant explanations to that of shifts in ethno-political status. Secondly, since SSA governments often incorporate multiple groups, we test the effect of patronage on being co-ethnic with cabinet members in general, and not only the president. Thirdly, health services constitute the public good most desired by citizens of SSA. Our measure captures a vital health service that is highly desired across groups. An increase in usage likely reflects genuine trickle-down effects of having co-ethnics in power, a crucial ingredient in building popular support for ethnic patrons. Fourthly, we show that electoral competition is an important conditioner of ethno-political favouritism.

It is commonly held that political leaders favour people of the same ethnic origin. We test this argument of ethno-political favouritism by studying variations in the usage of maternal health care services across groups in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). More specifically, we link geo-referenced individual-level data from the Demographic and Health Surveys on 601,311 births by 399,908 mothers in 31 countries during the period 1981–2014 with data on the settlement of ethnic groups and their political status. Our results indicate that women benefit from the shift that brings co-ethnics into power, increasing the probability of receiving maternal health care services. The effect strengthens with increased competitiveness around elections. We advance the current literature in four important ways. Firstly, we undertake the first analysis that utilizes shifts in ethno-political status for the same individual, effectively eliminating competing time-invariant explanations to that of shifts in ethno-political status. Secondly, since SSA governments often incorporate multiple groups, we test the effect of patronage on being co-ethnic with cabinet members in general, and not only the president. Thirdly, health services constitute the public good most desired by citizens of SSA. Our measure captures a vital health service that is highly desired across groups. An increase in usage likely reflects genuine trickle-down effects of having co-ethnics in power, a crucial ingredient in building popular support for ethnic patrons. Fourthly, we show that electoral competition is an important conditioner of ethno-political favouritism. ; publishedVersion ; https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/) which permits non-commercial use, reproduction and distribution of the work without further permission provided the original work is attributed as specified on the SAGE and Open Access page (https://us.sagepub.com/en-us/nam/open-access-at-sage).

The concept of peace has been under discussion in peace research from its start over 50 years ago. This article reviews the debate on broader and narrower conceptions of peace and investigates empirical patterns in the first 49 volumes of Journal of Peace Research, with some comparisons with Journal of Conflict Resolution. Negative peace, in the sense of reducing war, was the main focus in peace research from the inception. But positive peace, in the sense of cooperation or integration, has also always been on the peace research agenda, as reflected in the contents of both journals. Over time, a larger share of the articles in JPR has 'violence' or related terms in the title, while the incidence of the word 'peace' is fairly stable. Furthermore, articles on peace generally have fewer citations than those with violence-related terms. A broad concept of peace, as encouraged by the definition of positive peace as the reversal of structural violence, was popular in peace research for a decade or so, but has largely evaporated. To some extent, peace research has returned to its original agenda, although the main attention has shifted from interstate war to civil war and to some extent to one-sided and non-state violence. Articles dealing with patterns of cooperation, the traditional meaning of positive peace, now tend to address the liberal agenda and ask how they can foster a reduced probability of violence. Despite the 'gender gap', the increasing share of female authors in the journal appears to have had little influence on these developments although it may well have had other effects.

Contributions to the quantitative civil war literature increasingly rely on geo-referenced data and disaggregated research designs. While this is a welcome trend, it necessitates geographic information systems (GIS) skills and imposes new challenges for data collection and analysis. So far, solutions to these challenges differ between studies, obstructing direct comparison of findings and hampering replication and extension of earlier work. This article presents a standardized structure for storing, manipulating, and analyzing high-resolution spatial data. PRIO-GRID is a vector grid network with a resolution of 0.5 x 0.5 decimal degrees, covering all terrestrial areas of the world. Gridded data comprise inherently apolitical entities; the grid cells are fixed in time and space, they are insensitive to political boundaries and developments, and they are completely exogenous to likely features of interest, such as civil war outbreak, ethnic settlement patterns, extreme weather events, or the spatial distribution of wealth. Moreover, unlike other disaggregated approaches, gridded data may be scaled up or down in a consistent manner by varying the resolution of the grid. The released dataset comes with cell-specific information on a large selection of political, economic, demographic, environmental, and conflict variables for all years, 1946–2008. A simple descriptive data assessment of population density and economic activity is offered to demonstrate how PRIO-GRID may be applied in quantitative social science research.

Det har vært mange væpnede konflikter i Midtøsten i perioden etter annen verdenskrig. Men disse konfliktene kan langt på vei forklares av de samme generelle faktorene som disponerer for konflikt andre steder i verden. Er det noe spesielt med Midtøsten? Stort sett ikke.

The Middle East is one of the most conflict-prone regions—butwhy? The Collier-Hoeffler model of civil war provides the starting point for our analysis. In an application to Africa, Collier and Hoeffler found poverty to be the most significant predictor of conflict. For conflict in the Middle East, a more complex picture emerges. Consistent with Collier and Hoeffler, the authors find that economic development and economic growth, in addition to longer periods of peace, generally decrease the likelihood of conflict. They also find that ethnic dominance is significant, while social fractionalization is not. Contrary to Collier and Hoeffler, they find that regime type matters. Variables for the Middle East region, Islamic countries, and oil dependence are not significant. Conflict in the Middle East is quite well explained by a general theory of civilwar, and there is no need to invoke a pattern of "Middle Eastern exceptionalism."