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This note offers a glimpse of the author's PhD thesis on the Limits of Bioenergy, which was defended at Imperial College London in 2014. The thesis was also presented as a conference paper in the 59th Annual Meeting of the International Society for the Systems Sciences in Berlin, 2015, receiving the Sir Geoffrey Vickers Memorial Award. This research note gives a brief overview on the proposed complex systems approach to land use dynamics and constraints, as a contribution to the climate change debate. A full scientific article with the whole methodology and original results is already under publication process by the author and his colleagues. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Biofuels are a suitable complement for fossil energy in the transport sector and bioethanol is the main biofuel traded worldwide. Based on the assumption that innovation can be influenced by regulation, the Brazilian bioethanol industry is facing new requirements from external actors while reaching for international markets. Until 2010, national environmental laws were the main sustainability instrument that the biofuel industry faced. With the introduction of sustainability criteria for biofuels in the European Fuels Quality Directive (FQD) and Renewable Energy Directive (RED) of 2009, bioethanol producers have been pressured to innovate in respect of the requirements of future markets. Here, the aim is to analyse the case of Brazil, given the potential exports of sugarcane-based ethanol from this country to the EU. Brazil provides an interesting overview of how a bioethanol industry innovated while facing sustainability requirements in the past. A comparison between the European requirements and the industry´s status quo is then explored. The EU criteria are likely to have effects on the Brazilian bioethanol industry and incremental improvements in sustainability levels might take place based on the sustainability requirements. In addition, the industry could follow two other paths, namely risk diversification by engaging in multi-output models; and market leakage towards less-regulated markets. At the same time, an environmental overregulation of the biofuel market may make it more difficult for emerging biofuel industries in other countries, especially in Africa, by creating a barrier rather than contributing to its expansion. The results of this analysis show the main challenges to be addressed and the potential positive and negative impacts of the European Union biofuels policy on the Brazilian bioethanol industry. ; QC 20130107

AbstractThe use of system dynamics as a learning tool for developing sustainable energy strategies and environmental education has advanced in recent years with the availability of new modelling software and webtools. Among the existing models, we highlight the online 2050 Calculators, which aim at simulating scenarios for greenhouse gas emissions, energy planning, sustainable land use, and food consumption. The objective of this study is to assess the available calculators and their contribution to an interdisciplinary education via systems thinking. We carried out a review of the existing models worldwide and ran some of the tools with students from three different postgraduate programmes at master's level at Imperial College London (United Kingdom) and IFP School (France), whilst also assessing their individual views afterwards. The assessments were conducted once a year during three subsequent years: 2019, 2020, and 2021. The results are discussed under the epistemology of critical pedagogy, showing that the use of webtools, such as the 2050 Calculators, can significantly contribute to the students' environmental awareness and political engagement, providing important lessons about the use of system dynamics for policy and science education.

The use of system dynamics as a learning tool for developing sustainable energy strategies and environmental education has advanced in recent years with the availability of new modelling software and webtools. Among the existing models, we highlight the online 2050 Calculators, which aim at simulating scenarios for greenhouse gas emissions, energy planning, sustainable land use, and food consumption. The objective of this study is to assess the available calculators and their contribution to an interdisciplinary education via systems thinking. We carried out a review of the existing models worldwide and ran some of the tools with students from three diferent postgraduate programmes at master's level at Imperial College London (United Kingdom) and IFP School (France), whilst also assessing their individual views afterwards. The assessments were conducted once a year during three subsequent years: 2019, 2020, and 2021. The results are discussed under the epistemology of critical pedagogy, showing that the use of webtools, such as the 2050 Calculators, can signifcantly contribute to the students' environmental awareness and political engagement, providing important lessons about the use of system dynamics for policy and science education.