Suchergebnisse

The international monitoring of public finances in EMU member states is an essential element of the Stability and Growth Pact. Part of evaluating government budgets involves determining the sustainability of the envisaged consolidation measures. The academic and political debate on this topic emphasises various criteria which suggest persistent consolidation efforts. The academic literature stresses the contribution which government consumption and transfer payments make to reducing the deficit. The literature . also indicates a significant reversal in previous trends which had been responsible for expanding the deficit. In its Convergence Report of 1998 and in background studies, the European Commission cited the reduction of primary expenditure as a criterion of sustainability. Although various criteria have been mentioned in the debate, it is important to note that the empirical support for these criteria is based largely on the same data and methods, which are subject to certain shortcomings ...

The international monitoring of public finances in EMU member states is an essential element of the Stability and Growth Pact. Part of evaluating government budgets involves determining the sustainability of the envisaged consolidation measures. The academic and political debate on this topic emphasises various criteria which suggest persistent consolidation efforts. The academic literature stresses the contribution which government consumption and transfer payments make to reducing the deficit. The literature . also indicates a significant reversal in previous trends which had been responsible for expanding the deficit. In its Convergence Report of 1998 and in background studies, the European Commission cited the reduction of primary expenditure as a criterion of sustainability. Although various criteria have been mentioned in the debate, it is important to note that the empirical support for these criteria is based largely on the same data and methods, which are subject to certain shortcomings . ; Die internationale Überwachung der Entwicklung öffentlicher Finanzen in den Mitgliedstaaten der EWWU ist wesentlicher Bestandteil des Stabilitäts-und Wachstumspaktes. Teil der Bewertung der Staatshaushalte ist es, die Dauerhaftigkeit der angestrebten Konsolidierungsmaßnabmen zu beurteilen. Die wissenschaftliche und politische Diskussion zu diesem Thema betont verschiedene Kriterien, die auf anhaltende Konsolidierungsbemübungen hinweisen. In der wissenschaftlichen Literatur wird zum einen der Beitrag des Regierungskonsums und der Transferleistungen zur Verringerung des Defizits hervorgehoben. Darüber hinaus verweist die Literatur darauf, daß die Umkehrung vorheriger Trends, die für die Ausweitung des Defizits verantwortlich waren, von Bedeutung ist. Die Europäische Kommission hat in ihrem Konvergenzbericht von 1998 und in Hintergrundstudien die Reduzierung der primären Ausgaben als Nachhaltigkeitskriterium genannt. Obwohl verschiedene Kriterien in der Diskussion genannt werden, ist festzustellen, daß die empirische Fundierung dieser Kriterien weitgehend auf denselben Daten und Methoden beruhen, mit denen sich aber gewisse Nachteile verbinden .

Die "dauerhaft tragfähige Finanzlage" der Mitgliedstaaten ist eine zentrale Voraussetzung für die europäische Wirtschafts- und Währungsunion. Der Vertrag von Maastricht gibt jedoch nur unzureichende Bewertungsmaßstäbe an die Hand, wenn Mitgliedstaaten die Referenzwerte für die öffentlichen Defizite und Schuldenstände überschreiten. Ebensowenig findet die Europäische Kommission in ihrem Konvergenzbericht ein adäquates analytisches Instrument, um die Nachhaltigkeit der sehr kurzen Konsolidierungsanstrengungen in den Mitgliedstaaten zu erfassen. Die Arbeit stellt ein Konzept einer auf Dauer tragfähigen Finanzlage vor, anhand dessen überprüft werden kann, ob eine Regierung nach dem Auftreten eines übermäßigen Defizits die Kontrolle über die öffentlichen Finanzen wiedergewonnen hat. Ausschlaggebend ist, ob die Regierung die fiskalpolitischen und institutionellen Ursachen für die Verschlechterung der Finanzlage konsequent beseitigt. Dieses Konzept wird in Form eines mehrstufigen Bewertungsschemas operationalisiert und auf die EU-Mitgliedstaaten angewandt. Die Ergebnisse der Bewertung unterscheiden sich markant von den Empfehlungen der Europäischen Kommission.

In this paper we assess the importance given in capital markets to the credibility of the European fiscal framework. We evaluate to which extent relevant fiscal policy events taking place in the course of 2002 produced a reaction in the long-term bond segment of the capital markets. Firstly, we identify the fiscal policy events and qualitatively assess the views of capital market participants. Secondly, we estimate the impact of these fiscal events on the interest rate swap spreads, which is our measure for the risk premium. According to our results the reaction of swap spreads, where it turned out to be significant, has been mostly around five basis points or less.

In this paper we assess the importance given in capital markets to the credibility of the European fiscal framework. We evaluate to which extent relevant fiscal policy events taking place in the course of 2002 produced a reaction in the long-term bond segment of the capital markets. Firstly, we identify the fiscal policy events and qualitatively assess the views of capital market participants. Secondly, we estimate the impact of these fiscal events on the interest rate swap spreads, which is our measure for the risk premium. According to our results the reaction of swap spreads, where it turned out to be significant, has been mostly around five basis points or less.

The large and persistent deficits observed in many countries and the reform efforts undertaken to strengthen fiscal discipline have been the focus of an active and ongoing research program in political economy. This book draws together contributions from two competing approaches seeking to explain why deficits emerge and persist, the partisan approach and the institutionalist approach. The individual chapters, originally written for a research conference of the Center for European Integration Studies at the University of Bonn, extend previous research and present new empirical evidence. The book also reports on three cases of institutional reform of the budget process in Belgium, Canada and Sweden. Presenting the current frontier of international comparative research in public finance and identifying important elements of the design of budgeting institutions, the book is of interest for the research community studying the political economy of public budgeting and for practitioners in governments and international organizations alike

This paper addresses the question whether public finance reform can affect trend growth in the EU-15. Focusing on time series patterns, we investigate whether there have been persistent trends in economic growth and fiscal variables over the last 40 years. In addition, we estimate a distributed lag model, which 1) indicates that government size measured either with total expenditure or revenue shares, government consumption and direct taxation negatively affect growth rates of GDP per capita, while public investment has a positive impact, and 2) provides robust evidence that distortionary taxation affects growth in the medium-term through its impact on the accumulation of private capital. [Copyright 2008 Elsevier B.V.]

The debate on the sustainability of public finances is closely related to the analysis of the financial and macroeconomic consequences of government debt accumulation. Focusing on the USA, Germany and Italy over the 1983-2003 period, the central issue addressed in this paper is how the accumulation of government debt affects long-term interest rates, both nationally and across borders. The analysis is based on a small, multivariate econometric model, which allows us to disentangle the more permanent and transitory components of interest rate developments. Empirical evidence shows that in all cases a more sustained debt accumulation leads at least temporarily to higher long-term interest rates. This transitory impact also spills-over into other countries, mainly from the US to the two European countries.

In Lisbon the European Council proclaimed a European growth strategy. It considers an average economic growth rate of around 3 percent as a realistic prospect for the coming years and assigns public finances an important role in the process of achieving this goal. This paper addresses the question whether we can find empirical evidence for European countries that public finance reform affects trend growth. Focusing on time series patterns, we investigate whether there have been persistent shifts or trends in economic growth and fiscal variables over the last 40 years. In addition, we estimate a distributed lag model, which 1) indicates that government consumption and transfers negatively affect growth rates of GDP per capita over the business cycle, while public investment has a positive impact, and 2) provides robust evidence that distortionary taxation affects growth in the medium-term through its impact on the accumulation of private physical capital.

German public finances are currently subject to considerable changes in the macro-economic environment and this is probably only the beginning of more far-reaching developments in the future. Like many other European countries, Germany, on the one hand, faces the fiscal problems emerging from an ageing population, which will put upward pressure on social security expenditures. On the other hand, the public will reject an increase of the already high tax burden and an increasingly globalized economy and further European integration may put an additional limit on the government's capability to raise additional revenues. Finally, German governments will have to show whether they are able to meet these conflicting challenges in the future within the fiscal framework set by the Maastricht Treaty and the Stability and Growth Pact. Therefore, continued debt accumulation does not seem to be a viable option to circumvent the ageing problem and the limit on taxation. Thus we see three challenges for German public finances in the future. In this paper, we develop the recent history of German fiscal policy as a background to judging how fit Germany is to meet these challenges. Our main focus is on the government's fiscal strategies and the gradual erosion of the institutions that secured Germany's fiscal stability in the past.

1 -- Introduction 2 -- Electoral and Fiscal Institutions and Forms of Fiscal Governance 3 -- An Account of Fiscal Norms and Rules in the European Union from 1985 To 2004 4 -- How Forms of Fiscal Governance Affect Fiscal Performance 5 -- Why do Countries Have Different Fiscal Institutions? 6 -- Institutional Choice in New Democracies: Fiscal Governance in Central and East European Countries 7 -- Emu and Fiscal Governance in Europe 8 -- Conclusion.