Demographic Strengthening of European Identity
In: Population and development review, Band 42, Heft 2, S. 305-311
ISSN: 1728-4457
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In: Population and development review, Band 42, Heft 2, S. 305-311
ISSN: 1728-4457
In: Vienna yearbook of population research, Band 1, S. 221-240
ISSN: 1728-5305
Background: When asked what a desirable fertility level for populations might be, most politicians, journalists, and even social scientists would say it is around two children per woman, a level that has been labelled by demographers "replacement-level fertility." The reasons given for considering this level of fertility as something to aim at usually include maintaining the size of the labour force and stabilizing the old-age-dependency ratio. Objective: In this paper, we scrutinize this wide-spread view by introducing education in addition to age and sex as a further relevant source of observable population heterogeneity. We consider several criteria for assessing the long-term implications of alternative fertility levels and present numerical simulations with a view on minimizing the education-weighted total dependency ratio and complement this with the goal of reducing the amount of greenhouse gas emission in the context of climate change. Methods: We perform thousands of alternative simulations for different fertility levels (assumed to be constant over time) starting from empirically given population structures and derive the rate of fertility which yields the lowest level of our education-weighted dependency ratio. We study the sensitivity of our results to different parameter values and choose to focus on the actual populations of Europe and China over the course of the 21st century. Results: The results show that when education is assumed to present a cost at young age and results in higher productivity during adult age, then the fertility rate that on the long run keeps dependency at a minimum turns out to lie well below replacement fertility both in Europe and in China under a set of plausible assumptions. The optimal fertility level falls even lower when climate change is factored in as well. Conclusions: We conclude that there is nothing magical or particularly desirable about replacement level fertility. (authors' abstract)
BASE
In: Ecology and society: E&S ; a journal of integrative science for resilience and sustainability, Band 18, Heft 3
ISSN: 1708-3087
In: Spatial Demography, Band 8, Heft 1, S. 63-84
ISSN: 2164-7070
AbstractVariation in human growth and the genetic and environmental factors that are influencing it have been described worldwide. The objective of this study is to assess the geographical variance of under-five nutritional status and its related covariates across Indian districts. We use the most recent fourth round of the Indian National Family Health Survey conducted in 2015–2016, which for the first time offers district level information. We employ principal component analysis (PCA) on the demographic and socio-economic determinants of childhood morbidity and conduct hierarchical clustering analysis to identify geographical patterns in nutritional status at the district level. Our results reveal strong geographical clustering among the districts of India, often crossing state borders. Throughout most of Southern India, children are provided with relatively better conditions for growth and improved nutritional status, as compared to districts in the central, particularly rural parts of India along the so called "tribal belt". Here is also where girls are on average measured to have less weight and height compared to boys. Looking at average weight, as well as the proportion of children that suffer from underweight and wasting, north-eastern Indian districts offer living conditions more conducive to healthy child development. The geographical clustering of malnutrition, as well as below-average child height and weight coincides with high poverty, low female education, lower BMI among mothers, higher prevalence of both parity 4 + and teenage pregnancies. The present study highlights the importance of combining PCA and cluster analysis in studying variation in under-five child growth and of conducting this analysis at the district level. We identify the geographical areas, where children are under severe risk of undernutrition, stunting and wasting and contribute to formulating policies to improve child nutrition in India.
In: Vienna yearbook of population research, Band 19
ISSN: 1728-5305
Human well-being at the national aggregate level is typically measured by GDP per capita, life expectancy or a composite index such as the HDI. A more recent alternative is the Years of Good Life (YoGL) indicator presented by Lutz et al. (2018; 2021). YoGL represents a refinement of life expectancy in which only those person-years in a life table are counted that are spent free from material (1), physical (2) or cognitive limitations (3), while being subjectively perceived as satisfying (4). In this article, we present the reconstruction of YoGL to 1950 for 140 countries. Since life expectancy – as reported by the UN World Population Prospects in fiveyearly steps – forms the basis of our reconstruction, the presented dataset is also available on a five-yearly basis. In addition, like life expectancy, YoGL can be flexibly calculated for different sub-populations. Hence, we present separate YoGL estimates for women and men. Due to a lack of data, only the material dimension can be reconstructed based directly on empirical inputs since 1950. The remaining dimensions are modelled based on information from the more recent past.
In: Vienna yearbook of population research, Band 1, S. 47-70
ISSN: 1728-5305
In: Ecology and society: E&S ; a journal of integrative science for resilience and sustainability, Band 18, Heft 1
ISSN: 1708-3087
Sustainable development (SD) as popularized by the Brundtland Commission and politically enshrined in the Sustainable Development Goals has been the explicit focus of sustainability science. While there is broad agreement that the trend of human well-being ([Formula: see text]) over time should serve as a sustainability criterion, the literature so far has mostly addressed this in terms of its determinants rather than focusing on [Formula: see text] itself. There is broad agreement that an indicator for [Formula: see text] should have multiple constituents, clearly going beyond gross domestic product. Here, we propose a tailor-made indicator to serve precisely this purpose following a set of specified desiderata, including its applicability to flexibly defined subnational populations by gender, place of residence, ethnicity, and other relevant characteristics. The indicator, years of good life (YoGL), reflects the evident fact that in order to be able to enjoy any quality of life, one has to be alive and thus is primarily based on life expectancy. However, since mere survival is not considered good enough, life years are counted conditional on meeting minimum standards in two dimensions: the objective dimension of capable longevity (consisting of being out of absolute poverty and enjoying minimal levels of physical and cognitive health) and the subjective dimension of overall life satisfaction. We illustrate the calculation of this indicator for countries and subpopulations at different stages of development and with different degrees of data availability.
BASE
Since its inception in 2010, the Arab Spring has evolved into a situation of violent conflict in many countries, leading to high levels of migration from the affected region. Given the social impact of the large number of individuals applying for asylum across Europe in 2015, it is important to study who these persons are in terms of their skills, motivations, and intentions. DiPAS (Displaced Persons in Austria Survey) aims to uncover the socio-demographic characteristics of the persons seeking refuge who arrived in Austria in 2015, mainly originating from Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan. Particular focus is on human capital, attitudes and values. This survey, the first of its kind in Austria and possibly in Europe, was carried out among adult displaced persons, mostly residing in Vienna, yielding 514 completed interviews. Information gathered on spouses and children allows for the analysis of 972 persons living in Austria, and of further 419 partners and children abroad. Results indicate that the surveyed population comprised mainly young families with children, particularly those coming from Syria and Iraq. Their educational level is high compared with the average level in their country of origin. A vast majority of respondents are Muslims, rating their religiosity at medium levels. Judging from stated attitudes towards gender equity, interviewed men seem to have more liberal attitudes than their compatriots. The majority of respondents do not intend to return to their home countries, mostly because of the perception of permanent threat. DiPAS provides data for political decision-making and the on-going societal dialogue. Its findings can help to inform assessments about the integration potential of the displaced population into the host society. In addition, the applied methodological technique and experiences during the fieldwork provide valuable insights on sampling asylum seekers and refugees in the current European context.
BASE
In: PLOS ONE, Band 11, Heft 9
Since its inception in 2010, the Arab Spring has evolved into a situation of violent conflict in many countries, leading to high levels of migration from the affected region. Given the social impact of the large number of individuals applying for asylum across Europe in 2015, it is important to study who these persons are in terms of their skills, motivations, and intentions. DiPAS (Displaced Persons in Austria Survey) aims to uncover the socio-demographic characteristics of the persons seeking refuge who arrived in Austria in 2015, mainly originating from Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan. Particular focus is on human capital, attitudes and values. This survey, the first of its kind in Austria and possibly in Europe, was carried out among adult displaced persons, mostly residing in Vienna, yielding 514 completed interviews. Information gathered on spouses and children allows for the analysis of 972 persons living in Austria, and of further 419 partners and children abroad. Results indicate that the surveyed population comprised mainly young families with children, particularly those coming from Syria and Iraq. Their educational level is high compared with the average level in their country of origin. A vast majority of respondents are Muslims, rating their religiosity at medium levels. Judging from stated attitudes towards gender equity, interviewed men seem to have more liberal attitudes than their compatriots. The majority of respondents do not intend to return to their home countries, mostly because of the perception of permanent threat. DiPAS provides data for political decision-making and the on-going societal dialogue. Its findings can help to inform assessments about the integration potential of the displaced population into the host society. In addition, the applied methodological technique and experiences during the fieldwork provide valuable insights on sampling asylum seekers and refugees in the current European context.
In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS), Band 119, Heft 44, S. 1-8
This study explores how researchers' analytical choices affect the reliability of scientific findings. Most discussions of reliability problems in science focus on systematic biases. We broaden the lens to emphasize the idiosyncrasy of conscious and unconscious decisions that researchers make during data analysis. We coordinated 161 researchers in 73 research teams and observed their research decisions as they used the same data to independently test the same prominent social science hypothesis: that greater immigration reduces support for social policies among the public. In this typical case of social science research, research teams reported both widely diverging numerical findings and substantive conclusions despite identical start conditions. Researchers' expertise, prior beliefs, and expectations barely predict the wide variation in research outcomes. More than 95% of the total variance in numerical results remains unexplained even after qualitative coding of all identifiable decisions in each team's workflow. This reveals a universe of uncertainty that remains hidden when considering a single study in isolation. The idiosyncratic nature of how researchers' results and conclusions varied is a previously underappreciated explanation for why many scientific hypotheses remain contested. These results call for greater epistemic humility and clarity in reporting scientific findings.