This open access book provides innovative methods and original applications of sequence analysis (SA) and related methods for analysing longitudinal data describing life trajectories such as professional careers, family paths, the succession of health statuses, or the time use. The applications as well as the methodological contributions proposed in this book pay special attention to the combined use of SA and other methods for longitudinal data such as event history analysis, Markov modelling, and sequence network. The methodological contributions in this book include among others original propositions for measuring the precarity of work trajectories, Markov-based methods for clustering sequences, fuzzy and monothetic clustering of sequences, network-based SA, joint use of SA and hidden Markov models, and of SA and survival models. The applications cover the comparison of gendered occupational trajectories in Germany, the study of the changes in women market participation in Denmark, the study of typical day of dual-earner couples in Italy, of mobility patterns in Togo, of internet addiction in Switzerland, and of the quality of employment career after a first unemployment spell. As such this book provides a wealth of information for social scientists interested in quantitative life course analysis, and all those working in sociology, demography, economics, health, psychology, social policy, and statistics. ; Provides new perspectives and methods for sequence analysis Focusses on the link between sequence analysis and other methods for longitudinal data, especially event history analysis and Markov models Stresses the complementarity of sequence analysis and other models for longitudinal data Applications of sequence analysis in a whole range of different domains
Abstract This article compares two methods to study the link between educational pathways and income. Sequence analysis provides a holistic view but might fail to identify key trajectory characteristics. A new validation method overcoming this limit is proposed. Feature extraction and selection can directly identify these key characteristics. The conclusion summarizes the strengths and weaknesses of each method and provides guidelines on how to choose a method to study the relationship between a previous trajectory and a later-life outcome.
Volet quantitatif de l'évaluation de la politique de réinsertion professionnelle des chômeurs en fin de droits. Mandat confié à l'Institut d'études démographiques et du parcours de vie par la Cour des comptes de la République et canton de Genève
The relationship between processes and time-varying covariates is of central theoretical interest in addressing many social science research questions. On the one hand, event history analysis (EHA) has been the chosen method to study these kinds of relationships when the outcomes can be meaningfully specified as simple instantaneous events or transitions. On the other hand, sequence analysis (SA) has made increasing inroads into the social sciences to analyze trajectories as holistic "process outcomes." We propose an original combination of these two approaches called the sequence analysis multistate model (SAMM) procedure. The SAMM procedure allows the study of the relationship between time-varying covariates and trajectories of categorical states specified as process outcomes that unfold over time. The SAMM is a stepwise procedure: (1) SA-related methods are used to identify ideal-typical patterns of changes within trajectories obtained by considering the sequence of states over a predefined time span; (2) multistate event history models are estimated to study the probability of transitioning from a specific state to such ideal-typical patterns. The added value of the SAMM procedure is illustrated through an example from life-course sociology on how (1) time-varying family status is associated with women's employment trajectories in East and West Germany and (2) how German reunification affected these trajectories in the two subsocieties.
How do men and women's family life courses differ? Are gender differences in family life courses greater at higher or lower educational levels? And how does the intersection of gender, education and family life courses vary across different macro-structural contexts? This paper addresses these questions comparing East and West Germany during the German division (1961-1990). We thereby compare a strong male breadwinner model in a social market economy in West Germany and a universal breadwinner model in a state socialist system in the East. The analysis uses data from the German National Education Panel (NEPS) and employs two new sequence analysis tools: sequence discrepancy analysis and the implicative statistic for analyzing sequences of typical states. These tools enable us to scrutinize the degree, content, and timing of differences in family trajectories between men and women of different educational levels in the two sub-societies. In line with our expectations, family life courses were more de-standardized in the West compared to the East, and this occurred to the same extent for men and women in both contexts. While we find moderate gender differences in family life courses across all educational groups in the strong male breadwinner context in West Germany, for East Germany gender differences were significant among the medium and lower educated, but not among the highly educated. These findings underline the fact that the intersection of gender and education for family life courses is highly context-specific. They further suggest that different patterns of assortative mating play a key role for gender differences in family life courses. We demonstrate the added value of sequence discrepancy analysis and the implicative statistic to illuminate differences in longitudinal life courses between men and women or other social groups.
How does plant closure affect the employment and well-being of displaced workers? This article presents the results of two surveys of workers at five manufacturing plants two and 11 years after mass layoffs. After two years, two-thirds of displaced workers had been re-employed, one in five workers was still unemployed, and one in 10 workers had retired. A decade after the plant closures, unemployment had fallen below 5%. Overall, post-displacement outcomes in Switzerland were more favourable than in other European plant closures. However, age disparities loomed large. Older workers struggled to find new jobs and often had to accept large wage cuts and unstable jobs. In particular, many workers in their late forties and early fifties were hit hard as they were too young to benefit from early retirement, but too old to start over.
This chapter proposes a novel sequential mixed-method design that brings together the strengths of sequence analysis (SA) and qualitative comparative analysis (QCA). Both methods rely on an epistemological framework that combines analytical and holistic elements: they share the notion of analytically approaching social phenomena without disregarding their complexity. We apply SA as a first step to analyze the unfolding of phenomena over time. Specifically, through discrepancy analysis of state sequences, one can identify the time points when trajectories (start to) diverge from each other. In a second, explanatory step, QCA is applied to investigate whether, at such crucial time points, some particular configurations of factors are logically sufficient for the occurrence of a given state (or outcome). We provide an illustrative application to women's employment trajectories in divided Germany by using data from the Adults Cohort of the German National Educational Panel (NEPS). By preserving the analytical and holistic perspective on trajectories, our proposed design highlights the dynamic of socio-demographic factors sufficient for women to be in employment or education at critical turning points over the life course. This design takes on the challenge, summarized in Abbott's call for a 'processual sociology', to investigate both the dynamics of social phenomena as lineages of successive events and the complexity of contextual characteristics of 'present' moments. We conclude with an overview of research fields where our framework holds the promise of being applied fruitfully, namely life-course research, social stratification studies, policy evaluation, and comparative politics.