Suchergebnisse

Nowadays, it is widely believed that greater disclosure and clarity over policy may lead to greater predictability of central bank actions. We examine whether communication by the European Central Bank (ECB) adds information compared to the information provided by a Taylor rule model in which real time expected inflation and output are used. We use five indicators of ECB communication that are all based on the ECB President's introductory statement at the press conference following an ECB policy meeting. Our results suggest that even though the indicators are sometimes quite different from one another, they add information that helps predict the next policy decision of the ECB. Furthermore, also when the interbank rate is included in our Taylor rule model, the ECB communication indicators remain significant.

Abstract In a great majority of countries throughout the world productive government services have declined as percentage of GDP since the 1970s. In the macroeconomic literature this is often associated with the general productivity growth decline, suggesting an important role for infrastructure investment in economic growth. However, this also raises the question as of why public capital spending declined in so many countries. Surprisingly, hardly any research on this exists. This paper is one of the first attempts to fill this gap by testing various hypotheses that may explain the development of government capital spending using panel data for 123 non-OECD countries for the period 1970{1998. Politico-institutional variables, like ideology, political cohesion, political stability and political business cycles do not seem to be important when explaining government capital formation in less-developed economies. On the other hand, variables like public decits, private investment and foreign aid are significantly related to public capital spending.

Zsfassung in niederländ. Sprache

Im folgenden Beitrag wird die Frage untersucht, inwieweit sich in den Niederlanden ein Zusammenhang zwischen der Entwicklung eines nationalen Selbstbewußtseins und dem Muttersprachenunterricht feststellen läßt. Anhand von geschichtswissenschaftlichen Studien wird im ersten Teil das Verhältnis zwischen der Entwicklung des Nationalbewußtseins und der Errichtung von nationalen Denkmälern erörtert. Im zweiten Teil beschreiben die Autoren die historische Entwicklung des niederländischen Muttersprachenunterrichts im 19. Jahrhundert und stellen das nationale Selbstverständnis anhand von Zitaten dar. Im letzten Teil ihres Beitrages gehen sie auf die heftigen Diskussionen um eine angebliche Abschaffung der niederländischen Sprache als Unterrichtssprache an der Universität ein, welche sich im Jahre 1992 aber als eine 'Zeitungsente' herausstellte. (ICI)

This paper analyses revisions of Swiss current account data, taking into account the actual data revision process and the implied types of revisions. In addition we investigate whether the first release of current account data can be improved upon by the use of survey results as gathered by the KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich. An answer in the affirmative indicates that it is possible to improve first releases and thereby enhance the current assessment of the Swiss economy.

This collection is an analysis of the theoretical foundations of public debt sustainability concepts and their application to the empirical study of actual budgetary policies. The contributors to this volume consider whether the development of public debt in the United States and six EU countries is sustainable.