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Since mid-2021, Moscow has adhered to a foreign policy vis-à-vis the Taliban referred to here as "muted diplomacy". Russia has not officially recognized the Taliban, but the Kremlin maintains trade relations with the newly reestablished Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. From Moscow's perspective, it is prudent to engage with the Taliban, for there is no other actor that can exert political authority within the war-torn country. Yet the Taliban also plays an important role with regards to Russia's regional ambitions pertaining to Central Asia. In considering how the Russo-Ukraine War has undermined Moscow's standing among the Central Asian Republics, Russia seeks to preserve its hegemony, partially by restricting the "Stans" potential to acquire geopolitical maneuverability vis-à-vis Taliban-controlled Afghanistan. Consequently, Russia's evolving foreign policy towards the Taliban is grounded in delaying other nearby states' normalization of relations with Kabul in the hopes of maintaining its regional stature, as well as in engaging with the sole entity in Afghanistan that stands a chance of averting a state collapse, redolent of the 1990s. (Asian Aff/GIGA)

This article analyses the geopolitical repercussions of America's military withdrawal from Afghanistan and the Afghan Taliban's seizure of power in 2021. Since the Afghan Taliban continue to disregard the principal terms of the 2020 Doha Agreement brokered by the United States, Afghanistan is descending into chaos. The Afghan Taliban is unable to provide ordinary Afghans with basic living necessities, lacks international recognition and must contend against other violent extremist organizations operating within the country. Thus far, the Central Asian republics (Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan) have exhibited varying responses to the Afghan Taliban's takeover. While the 'Stans' are all anxious about the potential spread of radical Islam and a looming humanitarian crisis, the greater threat to Ashgabat, Tashkent and Dushanbe, as well as Bishkek and Nur-Sultan, lies with the United States pivoting away from Central Asia and the Russian Federation acquiring greater leverage over regional security issues.