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Specification counts in the formulation of any economic problem, estimation of its magnitude and its assessment. This is particularly so for problems in the context of economic development. Solutions for poverty alleviation in developing countries like India are often formulated under misspecified premises. This results in wrong choice and design of strategies and policies. Faulty evaluation due to specification errors in estimates of poverty only compounds the error. This paper discusses such an in issue in the context of strategies for and estimates of poverty reduction in the developing countries. The results are general. They are illustrated with reference to India. India has pursued a strategy for growth with redistribution with little appreciation of its limited potential. What have been the consequences? There is a consensus that incidence of poverty with reference to the calorie intake criterion has declined in India from about 55 percent in the mid 1970s to about 25 percent of the population today. The paper lists the implicit assumptions underlying the application of the conventional income/consumption based poverty estimates. It examines how institutional and structural changes during the development process could lead to specification errors in such estimates and hence, faulty evaluation of the consequences. The study concludes that the estimates of poverty with reference to a time-invariant calorie-intake-based norm do not show a real reduction in poverty but only a reduction in overestimation of poverty for the initial years followed by its underestimation for the later years. Even today about 75 percent of the population is calorie deficient. – growth ; redistribution ; poverty ; specification error

AbstractWith high levels of poverty and inadequate domestic food grain production, Kerala has been one of the most food insecure states in India. Its adverse implications, however, have been mitigated through active state government intervention and highly subsidized public distribution system operated under public vigil. As a result, per capita cereal consumption has increased in spite of a decline in domestic cereal production. Yet, about 80 per cent of the population suffer from inadequate calorie intake. The scale of the public distribution system is substantial; but its effective utilization is less than 50 per cent of the potential due to inadequate economic access and poor quality of food grains. Still the system is not sustainable for fiscal reasons. The ongoing adjustment programme has sought to streamline the food distribution programme by reforming its pricing rule and by targeting it only to the poor. The present article examines its implications for food security and social development in Kerala. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Although assessments by conventional macro measures show considerable improvement in food security in India, the levels of cereal consumption and calorie intake of even the general population are still below the normative threshold limits. This article brings out the dynamics of changes in institutional and production conditions and their implications for consumption patterns and food security at the micro level. The article uses empirical evidence to raise a number of issues, and calls for emphasis on investment in human capital by way of improvements in food and calorie intake for efficiency and economic growth.

Policy emphasis in Indian economic development planning has always been on 'economic growth with income redistribution'. Such a strategy seeks to exploit the potential of development programmes for poverty reduction and welfare gains by reducing the costs due to inequality in income distribution. The state of Kerala provides an empirical example to show how it is possible to achieve both growth and improved income distribution by human development, which is also acknowledged by the Government of India. The three critical dimensions of human development identified by the UNDP are (i) a long and healthy life; (ii) knowledge; and (iii) a decent standard of living as measured by per capita income. There is ample scope for achieving economic growth, human development and poverty reduction by reducing the extent of inequality in all these three dimensions of human development. Therefore, this study seeks to quantify the loss in human development due to inequalities in these three dimensions across states in India. This is done using the methodology to estimate a new index called the Inequality-adjusted Human Development Index (IHDI) proposed by the UNDP in its Human Development Report for 2010 entitled The Real Wealth of Nations: Pathways to Human Development. The HDI is a measure that summarises average levels of achievements in each of the three dimensions in terms of unit-free scores obtained by normalising their respective measures with reference to exogenous limits called goalposts. To facilitate international comparisons, the UNDP specifies the goalposts in the global context. To contextualise the HDI estimates with reference to feasibility defined by the country's potential, this study has made appropriate revisions to the goalposts with reference to the mainstream states in India. This is done in terms of order-based statistics, since mean-based estimates are misleading when the distributions of variables under review are skewed.(.)