"Daniel Susskind traces the rich, surprisingly brief history of economic growth and responds to its ills. We cannot focus only on growth's upsides, but nor is degrowth a viable policy: the benefits of prosperity are too great to discard. Instead we must face hard tradeoffs, demoting growth from our top priority and reckoning with its moral challenges."
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"Daniel Susskind traces the rich, surprisingly brief history of economic growth and responds to its ills. We cannot focus only on growth's upsides, but nor is degrowth a viable policy: the benefits of prosperity are too great to discard. Instead we must face hard tradeoffs, demoting growth from our top priority and reckoning with its moral challenges."
Abstract This issue of the Oxford Review of Economic Policy explores the origins of the US-led liberal multilateral economic order in the post-war world and the threats which that order now faces, drawing on contributions from two different groups of people—academic international relations (IR) scholars and international economists. This introductory essay attempts to weave the various strands of this intellectual collaboration together. First, it provides a narrative history of how economic collaboration emerged in the aftermath of the Second World War. Second, it describes the nature of the global economic governance that emerged and provides a new formal framework for analysing it, making use of the idea of 'concerted unilateralism'. Third, it explores how contemporary challenges—a broadening of policy requirements, the rise of economic nationalism, and the rise of China as a new hegemon—mean that the global economic order is now in flux. And finally, it concludes with a general observation that runs through the paper: that IR scholars are inclined to analyse international economic regimes, economists to study particular policy proposals, and that these two perspectives can—and should—complement one another.
Abstract: This special issue of the Oxford Review of Economic Policy, based on papers presented at a Bank of England conference, explores the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on financial services. This opening article provides an overview of AI and its increased use in the financial sector; considers the implications for consumers and competition in the sector; looks at the consequences for central bankers and regulators; and reflects on a more distant world where AI is far more advanced than today. In short, the effect of AI on financial services is likely to be transformative, but that impact remains complex and uncertain.
Abstract This paper explores the concept of 'global public goods' (GPGs) in the context of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. It argues that many of the tasks involved in public health, and in particular those involved in the control of an infectious disease like COVID-19, ought to be treated as GPGs that can only be effectively delivered through international cooperation. It sets out what a cooperative response to the COVID-19 pandemic should look like and introduces ideas for further discussion about how it might be financed.
Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic has created both a medical crisis and an economic crisis. As others have noted, we face challenges just as big as those in the Spanish Flu Pandemic and the Great Depression—all at once. The tasks facing policy-makers are extraordinary. Many new kinds of intervention are urgently required. This issue of the Oxford Review of Economic Policy has two objectives. The first is to explore these new interventions: evaluating their use, suggesting how they might be improved, and proposing alternatives. The second is to show that the challenges facing us are global and will require international cooperation if they are to be dealt with effectively. This short introductory essay positions the papers in the issue within an overall conceptual framework, with the aim of telling an overarching story about the pandemic.
With a new preface outlining the most recent critical developments, this updated edtion of The Future of the Professions predicts how technology will transform the work of doctors, teachers, architects, lawyers, and many others in the 21st century, and introduces the people and systems that may replace them.
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Abstract This paper argues for the regular testing of people in groups that are more likely to be exposed to SARS-CoV-2, to reduce the spread of COVID-19 and resume economic activity. We call this 'stratified periodic testing'. It is 'stratified' as it is based on at-risk groups, and 'periodic' as everyone in the group is tested at regular intervals. We argue that this is a better use of scarce testing resources than 'universal random testing', as has been recently discussed globally. We find that, under reasonable assumptions and allowing for false negative results 30 per cent of the time, 17 per cent of a subgroup would need to be tested each day to lower the effective reproduction number R from 2.5 to 0.75, under stratified periodic testing. Using the same assumptions the universal random testing rate would need to be 27 per cent (as opposed to 7 per cent as argued by Romer (2020b)). We obtain this rate of testing using a corrected method for calculating the impact of an infectious person on others, and allowing for asymptomatic cases. We also find that the effect of one day's delay between testing positive and self-isolating is similar to having a test that is 30 per cent less accurate.