In order to predict and determine level of food security in a certain area, a dynamic system approach model of food supply-demand planning that based on regional resources was developed. The model was run using both primary and secondary data, which were gathered in the study area, Madiun Region, East Java Province. One of food crop comodities that was focused for simulating the model was rice. To validate the developed model, one scenario was selected, there were no changing of planting or harvesting area and rice productivity level, also rice imported from other areas (countries) was zero for five next years. The simulation results indicated that the level of actual food security (1.29 - 1.27 years) was higher than government's level (1.25 years), though the rice market price decreased gradually.
Food security in Indonesia at national level, is considered as adequate, when seen from the side of availibility but the level of poverty is still high. It means that even the national food availability is abundant, but it can not be accessed by all residents at household level. Therefore, food security situation should be constantly monitored. one method to identify and provide food security situation data / information is establishment of food security index. This research has an objective to design instrument (a software) Decision Support System (DSS) to define food security index in household and region level. DSS for defining food security index needs to be done, so that there is a computer-based information system program that can be used to process and present data better, as a reference for policy makers on food security issues. The program is designed using a desktop-based software. It integrated the dialog subsystem, models subsystem, database subsystems and knowledge components subsystem. The data was collected at Srimartani village, Piyungan district, Bantul Regency, D.I. Yogyakarta Province, applying survey and interview methods in designing database. The dynamically designed program indicated that DSS program for food security index in household and region level can be used as an instrument to identify and give food security situation on a regular basis information. The information can be shown in the form of indexes and categories, as well as maps. according to the food security index result analysis for the household level of Sample Village, there were 1 sub-village in food insecurity, 6 sub-village in food vulnerable; and 10 sub-village in food security status. according to food insecurity index of the region level, food security level of Srimartani Village can be categorized as good enough, which was shown by index value 0,48. It means that all subvillage in Srimartani Village was categorized as secure enough, secure, and very secure. Based on this result analysis, according to the knowledge base of food security owned by the author, it was suggested to the local and provincial government to monitor region situation/condition regularly, especially for sub-village with food vulnerability category. The DSS program recommended the local and provincial government to give direct aid which will help the community to solve the food insecurity problem. ABSTRAKKetahanan pangan di Indonesia secara nasional tergolong cukup apabila dilihat dari sisi ketersediaan, namun tingkat kemiskinan masih cukup tinggi. Itu artinya meskipun ketersediaan secara nasional melimpah, namun pangan tersebut tidak bisa diakses oleh semua warga sampai ke tingkat rumah tangga. oleh karena itu, ketahanan pangan merupakan salah satu hal yang perlu terus menerus diawasi keadaannya dari waktu ke waktu. Salah satu metode untuk mengidentifikasi dan memberikan data/informasi tentang situasi ketahanan pangan adalah dengan penetapan indeks ketahanan pangan. Penelitian ini ditujukan untuk membangun instrument (seperangkat software) Sistem Pendukung Keputusan (SPK) untuk menetapkan indeks ketahanan pangan di tingkat rumah tangga dan wilayah. SPK (Decission Support System/DSS) untuk penetapan indeks ketahanan pangan perlu dilakukan supaya tedapat suatu program yang dapat digunakan sebagai sistem informasi berbasis komputer untuk mengolah dan menyajikan data dengan lebih baik sebagai bahan acuan bagi para pengambil kebijakan terkait masalah ketahanan pangan. Program dirancang dengan pemrograman berbasis desktop sebagai software bantu dalam menggabungkan subsistem dialog, subsistem model, subsistem basis data dan subsistem komponen pengetahuan. Pengumpulan data dilakukan di Desa Srimartani, Piyungan, Bantul, D.I.Yogyakarta dengan metode survey dan wawancara untuk diolah sebagai basis data. Hasil perancangan program menunjukkan bahwa program SPK untuk indeks ketahanan pangan di tingkat rumah tangga dan wilayah yang dirancang secara dinamis dapat digunakan sebagai instrument untuk melakukan identifikasi serta memberikan data/informasi situasi ketahanan pangan secara berkala yang ditampilkan dalam bentuk laporan berupa indeks dan kategori serta peta. Berdasarkan hasil analisis terhadap indeks ketahanan pangan di tingkat rumah tangga di desa sampel menunjukkan adanya 1 dusun rawan pangan; 6 dusun rentan pangan; 10 dusun tahan pangan. Berdasarkan indeks ketahanan pangan di tingkat wilayah, situasi ketahanan pangan Desa Srimartani cukup baik, ditunjukkan dengan indeks kurang dari 0,48 artinya semua dusun di Desa Srimartani masuk kategori cukup tahan, tahan dan sangat tahan. Berdasarkan hasil analisis, sesuai dengan knowledge base tentang ketahanan pangan yang dimiliki penulis, disarankan agar aparat desa dan pemeritah dapat melakukan monitoring situasi/kondisi wilayah secara berkala. Untuk dusun yang masuk kategori rawan pangan, program SPK memberikan rekomendasi kepada Pemerintah dan aparat desa agar memberikan bantuan langsung/bantuan tunai agar dapat membantu kondisi rawan pangan yang sedang terjadi.
The inequity of benefits among actors in the Indonesian patchouli value chain has been taking place for decades. This phenomenon has made distillers unable to guarantee the patchouli oil quality, one of the essential things in the global market. The objective of this study was to evaluate effects of modernization of distillation units and applications of a nonlinear return on investment (ROI) equity model to the financial performance of actors in the value chain to help the government together with the actors making the correct decisions and policies in the development of patchouli oil business. The study was done in the Gayo Lues District, Aceh, Indonesia. The findings indicate that the distillers get the least benefits (the lowest ROI) among actors in the Gayo Lues value chain. Moreover, modernization of the distillation units can increase the ROIs of the actors in the value chain. But, to observe how to establish equity among the actors, a nonlinear ROI equity model was developed. To make ROIs of the actors equal, outputs of the model recommend that the ideal patchouli oil share ratio between farmers and distillers is around 3.3 – 3.4: 1. Outputs of the model also suggest that both net gross and profits per kg of medium middlemen should be increased, while both net and gross profits per kg of large middlemen should be decreased.
