Suchergebnisse

Evaluating inflation-targeting monetary policy is more complicated than checking whether inflation has been on target, because inflation control is imperfect and flexible inflation targeting means that deviations from target may be deliberate in order to stabilize the real economy. A modified Taylor curve, the forecast Taylor curve, showing the tradeoff between the variability of the inflation-gap and output-gap forecasts can be used to evaluate policy ex ante, that is, taking into account the information available at the time of the policy decisions, and even evaluate policy in real time. In particular, by plotting mean squared gaps of inflation and output-gap forecasts for alternative policy-rate paths, it may be examined whether policy has achieved an efficient stabilization of both inflation and the real economy and what relative weight on the stability of inflation and the real economy has effectively been applied. Ex ante evaluation may be more relevant than evaluation ex post, after the fact. Publication of the interest-rate path also allows the evaluation of its credibility and the effectiveness of the implementation of monetary policy.

The paper discusses the choice between inflation targeting and monetary targeting as a strategy for the Eurosystem, the actual strategy the Eurosystem announced in the fall of 1998, the framework for policy decisions appropriate for achieving the goals of the Eurosystem, the role of exchange rate management in the EMU, and the accountabillity and transparency of the Eurosystem. The choice between inflation targeting and monetary targeting is, in effect, a choice between high and low transparancy. Inflation targeting and monetary targeting, in practice, imply similar policy decisions, but monetary targeting implies that policy decisions are explained in terms of money-growth developments that are not essential for policy. The Eurosystem has specified an operational inflation target, although in a somewhat ambiguous way. More importantly, its announced monetary strategy is deficient, since it proposes a prominent role for an essentially irrelevant money-growth indicator in analysis and communication, but will keep secret the inflation forecast that will, in practice, be the decisive input in policy decisions. Exchange rate policy is controlled by the Council of finance ministers in the EMu; this is a major inconsistency in the Maastricht Treaty and a possible threat to the independence of the Eurosystem. The European Parliament may have a crucial role in ensuring the accountability of the Eurosystem; the minimun transparency needed for effective outside monitoring and evaluation of the Eurosystem's policy decisions seem to require published inflation forecasts and, most llikely, published minutes and voting records of the Governing Council.

The paper gives a brief account of the Swedish experience of an inflation target in a floating exchange rate regime; identifies, documents and discusses the current problems in Swedish monetary policy and their origins; suggests what can be done to remedy the problems; and draws some general conclusions. The two main current problems are the lack of credibility of the target and the significant risk that the target will be missed. The reasons for the lack of credibility include the fiscal situation, the institutional setup of monetary policy, the political division about monetary polcy, and the insufficient transparency of and commitement to the current inflation-targeting policy.

This paper examines portfolio choice and asset pricing when some assets are nontraded, for instance when a country cannot trade claims to its output on world capital markets, when a government cannot trade claims to future tax revenues, or when an individual cannot trade claims to his future wages. The close relation between portfolio choice with and implicit pricing of nontraded assets is emphasized. A variant of Cox, Ingersoll and Ross's Fundamental Valuation Equation is derived and used to interpret the optimal portfolio. Explicit solutions are presented to the portfolio and pricing problem for some special cases, including when income from the nontraded assets is a diffusion process, not spanned by traded assets, and affected by a state variable.