Suchergebnisse

Intro -- Acknowledgements -- Contents -- List of Figures -- List of Tables -- Chapter 1: The Use and Utility of Ultimata in Coercive Diplomacy -- Introduction -- Key Contributions -- A Genealogy of Ultimata -- Track Record of Ultimata on the Basis of a New Dataset -- A Typology of Ultimata -- A Word on Method -- Structure of This Book -- References -- Chapter 2: A Genealogy of Ultimata -- Introduction -- Ultimata from Antiquity Until the Second World War -- Ultimata in Antiquity -- Ultimata in the Middle Ages -- Ultimata from the Renaissance to the Late Nineteenth Century -- Ultimata from the First Hague Peace Conference to the Second World War -- Conclusion -- References -- Chapter 3: Ultimata in Coercive Diplomacy -- Introduction -- Changing Views on the Threat of Force in Interstate Relations -- The Use and Utility of Ultimata in Coercive Diplomacy: Arguments and Evidence -- Conclusion -- References -- Chapter 4: The Dataset: Data Collection and Coding Procedures -- Method -- Definition and Operationalisation of Ultimata -- Peace Versus War Settings -- State Versus Non-state Actors -- The Demand-Threat-Deadline Trinity -- Strategic Versus Tactical -- Time Period and Search and Research Strategy -- Inclusion of Cases and Case Summaries -- The Coding Scheme -- Ultimatum, Demand, Threat, Deadline -- The Coercer and the Target of Coercion -- Regime Type -- Material and Military Capabilities -- International Support for Target of Coercion -- Involvement League of Nations or United Nations -- Demonstration and Use of Force Coercer and Target of Coercion -- Ultimatum Dynamics: Strategies, Responses, and Outcomes -- In Lieu of a Conclusion -- References -- Chapter 5: Ultimata 1920-2020: A Chronological Survey -- Introduction -- The First Wave: The 1920s -- The Second Wave: 1930-1942 -- The Period 1945-1989 -- The Third Wave: The 1990s.

"Ultimata feature as a core concept in the coercive diplomacy scholarship. Conventional wisdom holds that pursuing an ultimatum strategy is risky. This book shows that the conventional wisdom is wrong on the basis of a new dataset of 87 ultimata issued from 1920-2020. It provides a historical examination of ultimata in Western strategic, political, and legal thought since antiquity until the present, and offers a four-pronged typology that explains their various purposes and effects: 1) the dictate, 2) the conditional war declaration, 3) the bluff, and 4) the brinkmanship ultimatum. The book yields a better understanding of interstate threat behaviour at a time of surging competition"--Publisher's description.

This open access volume surveys the state of the field to examine whether a fifth wave of deterrence theory is emerging. Bringing together insights from world-leading experts from three continents, the volume identifies the most pressing strategic challenges, frames theoretical concepts, and describes new strategies. The use and utility of deterrence in today's strategic environment is a topic of paramount concern to scholars, strategists and policymakers. Ours is a period of considerable strategic turbulence, which in recent years has featured a renewed emphasis on nuclear weapons used in defence postures across different theatres; a dramatic growth in the scale of military cyber capabilities and the frequency with which these are used; and rapid technological progress including the proliferation of long-range strike and unmanned systems. These military-strategic developments occur in a polarized international system, where cooperation between leading powers on arms control regimes is breaking down, states widely make use of hybrid conflict strategies, and the number of internationalized intrastate proxy conflicts has quintupled over the past two decades. Contemporary conflict actors exploit a wider gamut of coercive instruments, which they apply across a wider range of domains. The prevalence of multi-domain coercion across but also beyond traditional dimensions of armed conflict raises an important question: what does effective deterrence look like in the 21st century? Answering that question requires a re-appraisal of key theoretical concepts and dominant strategies of Western and non-Western actors in order to assess how they hold up in today's world. Air Commodore Professor Dr. Frans Osinga is the Chair of the War Studies Department of the Netherlands Defence Academy and the Special Chair in War Studies at the University Leiden. Dr. Tim Sweijs is the Director of Research at The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies and a Research Fellow at the Faculty of Military Sciences of the Netherlands Defence Academy in Breda.

This open access volume surveys the state of the field to examine whether a fifth wave of deterrence theory is emerging. Bringing together insights from world-leading experts from three continents, the volume identifies the most pressing strategic challenges, frames theoretical concepts, and describes new strategies. The use and utility of deterrence in today's strategic environment is a topic of paramount concern to scholars, strategists and policymakers. Ours is a period of considerable strategic turbulence, which in recent years has featured a renewed emphasis on nuclear weapons used in defence postures across different theatres; a dramatic growth in the scale of military cyber capabilities and the frequency with which these are used; and rapid technological progress including the proliferation of long-range strike and unmanned systems. These military-strategic developments occur in a polarized international system, where cooperation between leading powers on arms control regimes is breaking down, states widely make use of hybrid conflict strategies, and the number of internationalized intrastate proxy conflicts has quintupled over the past two decades. Contemporary conflict actors exploit a wider gamut of coercive instruments, which they apply across a wider range of domains. The prevalence of multi-domain coercion across but also beyond traditional dimensions of armed conflict raises an important question: what does effective deterrence look like in the 21st century? Answering that question requires a re-appraisal of key theoretical concepts and dominant strategies of Western and non-Western actors in order to assess how they hold up in today's world. Air Commodore Professor Dr. Frans Osinga is the Chair of the War Studies Department of the Netherlands Defence Academy and the Special Chair in War Studies at the University Leiden. Dr. Tim Sweijs is the Director of Research at The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies and a Research Fellow at the Faculty of Military Sciences of the Netherlands Defence Academy in Breda.

War in the 21st century will remain a chameleon that takes on different forms and guises. This book offers the first comprehensive update and revision of ideas about the future of war since Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. It argues that the war has fundamentally shifted our perspective on the nature and character of future war, but also cautions against marginalising many other parallel trends, types of war, and ways of waging them. World-renowned international experts from the War Studies field consider the impact of the war in Ukraine on the broader social phenomenon of war: they analyse visions of future war; examine the impact of technological innovation on its conduct; assess our ability to anticipate its future; and consider lessons learned for leaders, soldiers, strategists, scholars and concerned citizens.

"This book examines the key dimensions of 21st century war, and shows that orthodox thinking about war, particularly what it is and how it is fought, needs to be updated. Accelerating societal, economic, political and technological change affects how we prepare, equip, and organise for war, as well as how we conduct war - both in its low-tech and high-tech forms, and whether it is with high intensity or low intensity. The volume examines changes in warfare by investigating the key features of the conduct of war during the first decades of the 21st century. Conceptually centred around the terms 'kinetic', 'connected' and 'synthetic', the analysis delves into a wide range of topics. The contributions discuss hybrid warfare, cyber and influence activities, machine learning and artificial intelligence, the use of armed drones and air power, the implications of the counterinsurgency experiences in Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria, as well as the consequences for law(fare) and decision making. This work will be of much interest to students of military and strategic studies, security studies and International Relations"--

"This book examines the key dimensions of 21st century war, and shows that orthodox thinking about war, particularly what it is and how it is fought, needs to be updated.

Accelerating societal, economic, political and technological change affects how we prepare, equip and organise for war, as well as how we conduct war – both in its low-tech and high-tech forms, and whether it is with high intensity or low intensity. The volume examines changes in warfare by investigating the key features of the conduct of war during the first decades of the 21st century. Conceptually centred around the terms 'kinetic', 'connected' and 'synthetic', the analysis delves into a wide range of topics. The contributions discuss hybrid warfare, cyber and influence activities, machine learning and artificial intelligence, the use of armed drones and air power, the implications of the counterinsurgency experiences in Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria, as well as the consequences for law(fare) and decision making.

This work will be of much interest to students of military and strategic studies, security studies and International Relations."

"This book examines the key dimensions of 21st century war, and shows that orthodox thinking about war, particularly what it is and how it is fought, needs to be updated.

Accelerating societal, economic, political and technological change affects how we prepare, equip and organise for war, as well as how we conduct war – both in its low-tech and high-tech forms, and whether it is with high intensity or low intensity. The volume examines changes in warfare by investigating the key features of the conduct of war during the first decades of the 21st century. Conceptually centred around the terms 'kinetic', 'connected' and 'synthetic', the analysis delves into a wide range of topics. The contributions discuss hybrid warfare, cyber and influence activities, machine learning and artificial intelligence, the use of armed drones and air power, the implications of the counterinsurgency experiences in Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria, as well as the consequences for law(fare) and decision making.

This work will be of much interest to students of military and strategic studies, security studies and International Relations."

"This book examines the processes, practices and principles of defence planning in small and middle powers. Small and middle powers are recalibrating their force postures in this age of disruption. They are adapting their defence planning and military innovation processes to protect the security of their nations. This book examines defence planning and military innovation in eleven contemporary case studies of small and middle powers in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Asia and Oceania. Employing a structured focused comparison framework, it traces patterns in the choices of small and middle powers across the following themes: (1) alliances, dependencies and national ambitions; (2) approaches, processes, methods and techniques; and (3) military innovation strategies and outcomes. Breaking new theoretical ground, it offers a three-pronged typology distinguishing between the Strategic Defence Planner, the Transactional Defence Planners, and the Complacent Defence Planner. The book offers a rich array of insights into cases that fall across different geographies, strategic cultures, and governance systems. These insights can help guide discussions on how to structure decision-making structures, arrive at ambition levels, formulate priorities, select partners, and design defence planning and military innovation processes. This book will be of much interest to students of defence studies, security studies, public policy and International Relations, and will also be of interest to professionals in defence planning"--

The core objective of the Evolving Concept of Security (EvoCS) project is to offer a clear yet detailed overview of security concerns that exist in different regions of the European Union. A proper understanding of these concerns is vital to both effective and representative priority setting in European security policy making. The results of the EvoCS project are therefore intended to be directly relevant to security policy makers and security research and development planners at the European Commission. The EvoCS project also offers a general model, which relies on a combination of quantitative and qualitative inputs, to assess regional and temporal variation in security concerns in the future. This document sets forth the analytical framework guiding the research conducted in the EvoCS project. It elaborates on the vision, introduces key methodological concepts and describes operational research guidelines. Accompanying this document is an online repository which is only accessible to members of the Consortium. Policymakers interested predominantly in the background of the EvoCS project need not read more than the introduction. The methodologically inclined reader who would like to know more about the research design of a project stretching twelve countries and executed by four different research teams, might wish to read the document in full.

This report constitutes the final deliverable of the EvoCS project. In it, the main results of the project are summarised and put into their respective context (section 2). It also includes final notes on the inter-study coherence, comments on the methodology of the EvoCS analytical framework (section 3) and an analysis and evaluation in the context of European policy documents and the current Eurobarometer on security (section 4). At its heart, the report formulates recommendations which are based on the project's results which target different levels (e.g. the EU level, the national level) and different geographical parts of Europe (e.g. recommendations for the whole of the EU, recommendations which are specific for certain regions) (section 5). In the last two sections, a report is given on the EvoCS project's final conference which took place Brussels on 10th November 2015 (section 6) and two examples of policy briefs which are one possible product that can come out of future activities using the project's analytical framework (section 7). The annex includes a guideline in which sequence the project's deliverables should be read.