Suchergebnisse

An approach to planning foreign policy systematically is presented. It is seen as an appropriate planning aid in situations where some form of goals can be stated, the subject matter is "well understood," and potential disturbances in the patterns of interrelationship between variables are identifiable. After placing this approach in the context of other planning and decision-making arguments and schemes, an example dealing with choosing a foreign assistance policy is offered to illustrate steps involved in mathematical planning. Those steps are goal setting and weighting, establishing normatively set constraints, relating variables, determining initial conditions, and numerical evaluation of alternative policies. In the foreign assistance example, computer simulation is employed to accomplish the final step.

Effects of sharp increases in military assistance on international conflict and cooperation on the part of recipient nations are investigated. Since traditional bivariate and multivariate statistical techniques are often conceptually inapplicable to this subject matter, a quasi-experimental design is used which relies on autoregressive moving average models and exponential smoothing forecasting mechanisms. Twenty-five annual observations, from 1946 through 1970, of 15 Asian nations serve as the data base. Key findings are: (1) sharp increases in military assistance tend to change decidedly the recipient nation's international conflict and cooperative behavior; (2) in a substantial majority of cases examined, the direction of that behavior change is toward increased conflict and decreased cooperation; and (3) a two-year lag between military assistance and behavior change of recipient nations is statistically supported. The effects of increased capabilities as well as bureaucratic politics, habit, expectation, and prior deals are offered as possible reasons for these results. The findings seem to refute the argument that giving military aid to a nation not involved in a war will help strengthen that nation and thereby avoid future conflict.

National sovereignty, defined as a nation's right to exercise its own law and practise over its territory, is a cherished norm in the modern era, and yet it raises great legal, political and ethical dilemmas. This study looks at the problems created by international intervention

National sovereignty, defined as a nation's right to exercise its own law and practise over its territory, is a cherished norm in the modern era, and yet it raises great legal, political and ethical dilemmas. This study looks at the problems created by international intervention.