Suchergebnisse

Abstract. The well known strombolian activity at Stromboli volcano is occasionally interrupted by rarer episodes of paroxysmal activity which can lead to considerable hazard for Stromboli inhabitants and tourists. On 5 April 2003 a powerful explosion, which can be compared in size with the latest one of 1930, covered with bombs a good part of the normally tourist-accessible summit area. This explosion was not forecasted, although the island was by then effectively monitored by a dense deployment of instruments. After having tackled in a previous paper the problem of highlighting the timescale of preparation of this event, we investigate here the possibility of highlighting precursors in the volcanic tremor continuously recorded by a short period summit seismic station. We show that a promising candidate is found by examining the degree of coupling between successive singular values that result from the Singular Spectrum Analysis of the raw seismic data. We suggest therefore that possible anomalies in the time evolution of this parameter could be indicators of volcano instability to be taken into account e.g. in a bayesian eruptive scenario evaluator. Obviously, further (and possibly forward) testing on other cases is needed to confirm the usefulness of this parameter.

Abstract. The island of Tenerife (Canary Islands, Spain), is showing possible signs of reawakening after its last basaltic strombolian eruption, dated 1909 at Chinyero. The main concern relates to the central active volcanic complex Teide - Pico Viejo, which poses serious hazards to the properties and population of the island of Tenerife (Canary Islands, Spain), and which has erupted several times during the last 5000 years, including a subplinian phonolitic eruption (Montaña Blanca) about 2000 years ago. In this paper we show the presence of low frequency seismic noise which possibly includes tremor of volcanic origin and we investigate the feasibility of using it to forecast, via the material failure forecast method, the time of occurrence of discrete events that could be called Volcano-Tectonic or simply Tectonic (i.e. non volcanic) on the basis of their relationship to volcanic activity. In order to avoid subjectivity in the forecast procedure, an automatic program has been developed to generate forecasts, validated by Bayes theorem. A parameter called "forecast gain" measures (and for the first time quantitatively) what is gained in probabilistic terms by applying the (automatic) failure forecast method. The clear correlation between the obtained forecasts and the occurrence of (Volcano-)Tectonic seismic events - a clear indication of a relationship between the continuous seismic noise and the discrete seismic events - is the explanation for the high value of this "forecast gain" in both 2004 and 2005 and an indication that the events are Volcano-Tectonic rather than purely Tectonic.

Abstract. This paper presents the development and applications of a software-based quality control system that monitors volcano activity in near-real time. On the premise that external seismic manifestations provide information directly related to the internal status of a volcano, here we analyzed variations in background seismic noise. By continuous analysis of variations in seismic waveforms, we detected clear indications of changes in the internal status. The application of this method to data recorded in Villarrica (Chile) and Tungurahua (Ecuador) volcanoes demonstrates that it is suitable to be used as a forecasting tool. A recent application of this developed software-based quality control to the real-time monitoring of Teide – Pico Viejo volcanic complex (Spain) anticipated external episodes of volcanic activity, thus corroborating the advantages and capacity of the methodology when implemented as an automatic real-time procedure.