A Multivariate Unobserved Components Model to Estimate Potential Output in the Euro Area: A Production Function Based Approach
In: ECB Working Paper No. 2021/2523
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In: ECB Working Paper No. 2021/2523
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In: Honvédorvos, Band 73, Heft 3-4, S. 13-18
The COVID-19 pandemic has le" its mark on just about every aspect of life and had a major impact on the NATO Centre of Excellence for Military Medicine (NATO MILMED COE) as well. New, unprecedented challenges have emerged in the life of the organization, which has not only overcome but has even come up with novel capabilities that have enabled the COE to actively help fight the pandemic.
In: Bank of England, Staff Working Paper No. 585
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Working paper
In this study we examine the impact on Hungary of a possible correction of global imbalances. We distinguished four different channels of the global adjustment process, which are widely referred to in the literature (fiscal tightening in the U.S.; housing price correction in the US; an increase in the risk premium of dollar assets; increase in domestic demand in the Asian region) and analyzed them through model simulations. We constructed global scenarios using the NIGEM model, while we captured the domestic impacts using the Quarterly Projection Model (NEM) of the Magyar Nemzeti Bank. According to our results, both the global and domestic effects differ significantly with respect to whether the correction originates from the U.S. or Asia and whether it is a result of policy or market processes. We found that a possible global correction will pass through to Hungary mainly through the Eurozone countries, thus its main impact will be relatively dampened. The responses of domestic macroeconomic variables depend on our assumptions on the reaction of monetary policy and the developments in the risk premium on forint denominated assets.
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In: ECB Working Paper No. 2023/2815
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In: Audunson , R , Aabø , S , Blomgren , R , Hobohm , H C , Jochumsen , H , Khosrowjerdi , M , Mumenthaler , R , Schuldt , K , Rasmussen , C H , Rydbeck , K , Tóth , M & Vårheim , A 2019 , ' Public libraries as public sphere institutions : A comparative study of perceptions of the public library's role in six European countries ' , Journal of Documentation , vol. Vol. 75 , no. No. 6 , pp. 1396-1415 . https://doi.org/10.1108/JD-02-2019-0015
Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to analyze the role of public libraries as institutions underpinning a democratic public sphere as reasons legitimizing libraries compared to reasons that are more traditional and the actual use of libraries as public sphere arenas. Design/methodology/approach: A survey of representative samples of the adult population in six countries – Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Germany, Hungary and Switzerland – was undertaken. Findings: Legitimations related to the libraries role as a meeting place and arena for public debate are ranked as the 3 least important out of 12 possible legitimations for upholding a public library service. Libraries are, however, used extensively by the users to access citizenship information and to participate in public sphere relevant meetings. Originality/value: Few studies have empirically analyzed the role of libraries in upholding a democratic and sustainable public sphere. This study contributes in filling that gap.
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The article analyses recent developments in business investment for a large group of EU countries, using a broad set of analytical tools and data sources. We find that the assessment of whether or not investment is currently low varies across benchmarks and countries. At the euro area level and for most countries, the level of business investment is broadly in line with the level of overall activity. However rates of capital stock growth have slowed down since the crisis. The main cyclical determinants of investment developments in the euro area include foreign and domestic demand, uncertainty and financial conditions. Uncertainty seems to have played a negative role during the financial and sovereign debt crises; however, given its low levels more recently, it has not acted as a drag on business investment overall during the recovery. Credit constraints appear to have hindered investment during the twin crises, especially in stressed countries. Aside from cyclical developments, important secular factors - relating to demographics, the changing nature and location of production, and the business environment - have influenced investment. Another factor that may have amplified the decline in private investment, particularly in countries that were hit hardest by the sovereign debt crisis, is the low level of public investment. This is because when public investment enhances the productivity of the private sector, there may be positive spillovers from the former to the latter, including across countries. Finally, intra-sector capital misallocation, measured as the within-sector dispersion across firms in the marginal revenue product of capital, has been increasing in Europe since 2002, which may in turn have exerted a significant drag on total factor productivity dynamics, and hence on aggregate output growth.
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In: ECB Occasional Paper No. 215
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Working paper