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EXPLANATIONS OF MILITARY COUPS IN THE PAST FEW DECADES HAVE ENCOMPASSED MANY THEORIES. HOWEVER, THE DOMINANT FOCUS HAS BEEN THE QUESTION OF REGIME VULNERABILITY. FOLLOWING COMPARISONS, IT WAS CONCLUDED THAT ALL SECTORS OF POLITICAL SYSTEMS ARE NOT "CREATED EQUAL" WITH REGARD TO CONTINUED MAINTENANCE OF THE REGIME.

MARTIN NEEDLER'S FOUR FUNCTIONALIST HYPOTHESES LINKING LATIN AMERICAN MILITARY INTERVENTION TO: (1) SOCIAL CLASS STATUS GUO MAINTENANCE; (2) CONSITUTIONAL PRESIDENTS; (3) ELECTIONS AND INAUGURATIONS OF REFORMING PRESIDENTS; AND (4) POPULAR RESISTANCE AND OPEN FIGHTING DURING COUPS ARE RE-EXAMINED SUBJECT TO SEVERAL MODIFICATIONS OF THE ORIGINAL 1966 STUDY.

1 Introduction -- 1.1 Arrivals in time -- 1.2 Reliability -- 1.3 Safety assessment -- 1.4 Random stress and strength -- Notes on the literature -- Problems -- 2 Point processes -- 2.1 The probabilistic context -- 2.2 Two methods of representation -- 2.3 Parameters of point processes -- 2.4 Transformation to a process with constant arrival rate -- 2.5 Time between arrivals -- Notes on the literature -- Problems -- 3 Homogeneous Poisson processes -- 3.1 Definition -- 3.2 Characterization -- 3.3 Time between arrivals for the hP process -- 3.4 Relations to the uniform distribution -- 3.5 A process with simultaneous arrivals -- Notes on the literature -- Problems -- 4 Application of point processes to a theory of safety assessment -- 4.1 The Reactor Safety Study -- 4.2 The annual probability of a reactor accident -- 4.3 A stochastic consequence model -- 4.4 A concept of rare events -- 4.5 Common mode failures -- 4.6 Conclusion -- Notes on the literature -- Problems -- 5 Renewal processes -- 5.1 Probabilistic theory -- 5.2 The renewal process cannot model equipment wearout -- Notes on the literature -- Problems -- 6 Poisson processes -- 6.1 The Poisson model -- 6.2 Characterization of regular Poisson processes -- 6.3 Time between arrivals for Poisson processes -- 6.4 Further observations on software error detection -- Notes on the literature -- Problems -- 7 Superimposed processes -- Notes on the literature -- Problems -- 8 Markov point processes -- 8.1 Theory -- 8.2 The Poisson process -- 8.3 Facilitation and hindrance -- Notes on the literature -- Problems -- 9 Applications of Markov point processes -- 9.1 Egg-laying dispersal of the bean weevil -- 9.2 Application of facilitation — hindrance to the spatial distribution of benthic invertebrates -- 9.3 The Luria-Delbrück model -- 9.4 Chance placement of balls in cells -- 9.5 A model for multiple vehicle automobile accidents -- 9.6 Engels' model -- Notes on the literature -- Problems -- 10 The order statistics process -- 10.1 The sampling of lifetimes -- 10.2 Derivation from the Poisson process -- 10.3 A Poisson model of equipment wearout -- Notes on the literature -- Problems -- 11 Competing risk theory -- 11.1 Markov chain model -- 11.2 Classical competing risks -- 11.3 Competing risk presentation of reactor safety studies -- 11.4 Delayed fatalities -- 11.5 Proportional hazard rates -- Notes on the literature -- Problems -- Further reading -- Appendix 1 Probability background -- A1.1 Probability distributions -- A1.2 Expectation -- A1.3 Transformation of variables -- A1.4 The distribution of order statistics -- A1.5 Conditional probability -- A1.6 Operational methods in probability -- A1.7 Convergence concepts and results in the theory of probability -- Notes on the literature -- Appendix 2 Technical topics -- A2.1 Existence of point process parameters -- A2.2 No simultaneous arrivals -- Solutions to a few of the problems -- References -- Author index.

SOME TRADE FRICTIONS ARE MORE IMPORTANT THAN OTHERS BECAUSE THEY REPRESENT CHANGES OR POSSIBLE CHANGES IN SYSTEMIC ECONOMIC LEADERSHIP. BASED ON SEVERAL STRONG ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT THE NATURE OF INTERNATIONAL POLITICAL ECONOMY, A MULTIVARIATE MODEL THAT DIFFERENTIATES BETWEEN POLITICAL-ECONOMIC CHALLENGES THAT LEAD TO INTENSE, MILITARIZED CONFLICTS AND THOSE THAT DO NOT IS CONSTRUCTED. TEN ITERATIONS OF CHALLENGES OVER THE PAST MILLENNIUM PROVIDE EMPIRICAL SUPPORT FOR THE APPLICABILITY OF THE MODEL. PROVIDED THAT THE MODEL'S ASSUMPTIONS CONTINUE TO HOLD, IT ALSO HAS CLEAR IMPLICATIONS FOR EVALUATING THE LONG-TERM CONFLICT POTENTIAL OF THE ONGOING US-JAPANESE COMMERCIAL COMPETITION. WHILE AN INTENSE CHALLENGE IS QUITE POSSIBLE, A MILITARIZED CONFLICT BETWEEN JAPAN AND THE UNITED STATES OVER ECONOMIC LEADERSHIP SOME TIME IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY IS NOT THE MOST PROBABLE SCENARIO.

The eruption of Mt. Pinatuba represented more than the smothering of America's Clark Air Force Base and many of President Corazon Aquino's development plans. It also served as a metaphor both for the collapse of Philippine-American base negotiations, presaging an end to nearly a century of strategic relations, and for Aquino's unsuccessful attempt to undo the colossal damage of the Marcos era and construct coherent development programs. This book explores the connections between two central functions of third world governments - development and security - in an analysis of Aquino's six crisis-filled years

A systematic and thorough analysis of a small, determined and comparatively wealthy "new" state's attempts to enlarge its influence and augment its power. Originally published in 1969. The Princeton Legacy Library uses the latest print-on-demand technology to again make available previously out-of-print books from the distinguished backlist of Princeton University Press. These editions preserve the original texts of these important books while presenting them in durable paperback and hardcover editions. The goal of the Princeton Legacy Library is to vastly increase access to the rich scholarly heritage found in the thousands of books published by Princeton University Press since its founding in 1905

The North Atlantic Alliance came into being in 1949 to protect its members from an external Communist threat. Italy has always had a large and active Communist Party. However, recent events have raised the real possibility of the Italian Communist being taken into the Government. Professor Thompson discusses the effects of such an eventuality and he suggests possible courses of action.

Last year at a conference on "The Military Lessons of the Vietnamese War," a discussion took place in which the relevant learning model for American counterinsurgency efforts in Vietnam was debated. 1 One person noted that his commanders at the Pentagon had warned him to be wary in Saigon of the orchestrator of the British success in Malaysia, Sir Robert Thompson, who was serving then in Vietnam as head of the British Advisory Mission. The gentleman was happy to observe to Sir Robert, who also attended the conference, that he had not heeded the warning-and had subsequently benefited from Sir Robert's wise counsel.