Suchergebnisse

The paper analyses the results of the Serbian corporate sector in the period 2013-2022, starting with groups of companies classified by their activity, size, residency of the owner and market orientation. The paper concludes that all groups of companies benefitted from stability and that they used the opportunities created on this account. In the observed ten-year period, the Serbian corporate sector recorded growth in real operating income and operating profit of 5% (8.2% in the period since 2019) and 8.5% on average per annum. Employment rose at the annual trend rate of 3.9%, and export propensity also increased, on average by 2.5 structural points a year. Simultaneously, the average annual trend rate of real GDP growth measured 2.9%, which together supports the assessment of the importance of exports for economic growth. Wage movements also indicate the multiplicative impact of economic growth on the increase in household earnings from work - both in terms of average wage growth and employment gains. If we take a step forward and split the ten-year period into two five-year periods, we can see that the total calculated financial costs on account of interest rates and exchange rate gains/losses decreased by EUR 6.9 bn, making up 37% of the total increase in corporate net profit. This is not merely about the positive impact on corporate money flows, but also about how important they are for financial potential to be more efficiently translated into expansion and/or modernisation of existing and construction of new capacities in a stable and predictable business environment. This is only one part of the direct importance of price stability and relative stability of the exchange rate for successful business performance, growth, and employment.

The paper elaborates on world inflation drivers and monetary policy responses in 2022, with a particular focus on Serbia, including factors underpinning global inflation in both short and long run. Reining in inflation was among the key challenges for economic policy makers across the world in 2022, and was particularly pivotal for monetary policy. Reflecting a mix of acute external shocks, in 2022 inflation turned out more persistent and stronger than expected initially, whilst in the case of Serbia it was largely dictated by global supply-side factors. As shown by NBS analyses, around 50% of the departure of actual from projected inflation in Serbia was due to a significant deviation of global prices of oil, inflation in Euro area, primary agricultural commodity prices and the agricultural season at home from the assumptions used in the projection model. While pronounced oscillations of imported inflation (expressed in dinars) in the earlier years (2010 and 2012) were largely determined by the dinar's volatility against the Euro (two-thirds almost), now, in an environment of preserved relative stability of the exchange rate, they are a consequence of the growth in Euro area consumer prices. Responding to mounting inflationary pressures, central banks embarked on monetary policy tightening. A more robust response came from those central banks whose economies faced inflationary pressures generated not only by supply-side factors, but also by domestic demand and higher labour costs. Though global inflation is expected to slow in the coming period, estimates prevail that it will not return to the exceptionally low pre-pandemic levels in the medium run.

No issue has stirred such debate recently as inflation. In this paper, inflation factors are divided into three groups: 1) global - which dictated inflation movements in 2020 and 2021 in the majority of countries; 2) base effect, which was also a shared component; 3) domestic factors, specific for each country, which gave rise to the differences in the monetary policy response. Factors of ongoing global inflation movements are presented, as well as the assessment of its character in the case of Serbia. The paper offers a response to what monetary policy can and should do in order to preserve price stability over the medium run. Generally, the decomposition of y-o-y inflation rates into global, regional and domestic factors by applying the principal components method indicates that global factors played a key role in determining inflation growth in Serbia and the neighbouring countries in 2021. Also, autocorrelation functions for various groups of price time series were assessed -unprocessed food, processed food, petroleum products and core inflation, where the results obtained indicate that core inflation is a relatively good estimate of the durability of inflationary pressures, as well as that deviations of headline inflation from core inflation are, as a rule, temporary in nature. All of the NBS analyses suggest that there are no fundamental demand-side pressures that would drive Serbia's inflation up in the medium term.

The paper aims to point out the strength and effects of the shock of the crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic on the global and domestic economy. Effects differ depending on the characteristics of individual economies and the response of economic policy makers. The crisis called "the great lockdown" features: 1) suspension of activity in some sectors and huge declines in others, with pronounced asymmetry and 2) implementation of robust packages of monetary and fiscal policy measures. The paper focuses on the measures adopted in Serbia to mitigate the negative effects of the pandemic on the domestic economy. It elaborates on the temporary measures adopted by the National Bank of Serbia (NBS), which helped preserve stability in the foreign exchange market, ensured efficient functioning of the money market, liquidity support to all sectors and more favourable financing conditions, sustained credit activity and supported the domestic real sector. According to our estimate, if the monetary and fiscal policy measures had not been adopted, the fall in Serbia's economic activity in 2020 would have exceeded 6%, while growth in 2021 would be modest, failing to reach the pre-pandemic growth dynamics even in the medium term. The adoption and implementation of the robust package of measures was possible because Serbia faced the crisis in a good macroeconomic and fiscal position owing to the strengthened economy and implementation of structural reforms in the past period. In fact, Serbia can serve as the example of a country confirming the importance of strengthening the economy on sustainable grounds in the past eight years, which created room for the adoption of comprehensive economic measures to support citizens and businesses, in order to preserve production capacities and jobs.

Since Taylor's 1993 paper researchers have devoted a lot effort to estimation of monetary policy rules. Taylor showed that a simple central bank reaction function, with the interest rate as monetary policy instrument and inflation and output gap as explanatory variables, mimics the Fed funds rate pretty well during the period from 1987 to 1992. Often, the Taylor rule coefficients are interpreted as if they reflect central bank's preferences. However, this may be misleading. In this paper we show that Taylor rule coefficients are complicated terms consisting of preference parameters as well as parameters given by the structure of the economy. We illustrate our conclusion that Taylor rule coefficients cannot be interpreted as reflecting central bank preferences by estimating standard forward-looking Taylor rules for the Bundesbank, the Fed and UK and confront these with our results obtained by a multi-equation GMM approach in order to detect central bank preferences.

Yugoslavian Shepherd Dog-Sharplanina (YSD) is a livestock guard dog from the Western Balkans present in this region over a long time, but recognized by the Fédération Cynologique Internationale as a distinct breed as late as 1957. However, the information regarding the origin and the size of the breed's foundation stock is still lacking. In order to contribute towards better understanding of the genetic make-up of the YSD and its foundation stock, we re-analyzed previously generated genetic profiles of 94 registered YSD dogs assessed with nine nuclear microsatellites. Studied individuals comprised 90 unrelated dogs and two pairs of full-sibs, sampled at four sampling sites: Three dog shows and at a military training centre for dogs in Serbia. We supported earlier findings on high levels of genetic diversity in YSD (HE=0.728±0.027) and lack of inbreeding, and revealed substructure of the breed because we found two distinct gene pools in the Bayesian clustering analysis, indicated also by the excess of homozygotes (i.e., Wahlund effect) and outcomes of other analyses: Linkage disequilibrium tests, Neighbour-Joining tree, principal coordinates and two-dimensional scaling analyses. The two gene pools were almost equally represented at each sampling site. One gene pool was composed of individuals with high genetic integrity, while the other gene pool was characterized with admixed ancestry, developed possibly via hybridization with native breeding stock outside the registry system, other breeds, such as the Caucasian Shepherd, and/or individuals admixed with wolves. Thus, we demonstrate rather complex and diverse ancestry implying a genetically heterogeneous foundation stock of the YSD. ; Jugoslovenski ovčarski pas – šarplaninac (JOP) je pastirski pas sa prostora Zapadnog Balkana na kojem je prisutan od davnina, iako je kao zasebna rasa prepoznat od strane Međunarodne kinološke federacije (FCI) tek 1957. godine. Međutim, podaci o veličini i poreklu osnivačke populacije JOP još uvek su nepoznati. U cilju doprinosa boljem razumevanju genetičke strukture i osnivačke populacije ove rase, izvršili smo dodatnu analizu prethodno objavljenih genetičkih profila 94 jedinke pasa rase JOP (90 pasa koji nisu u srodstvu i dva para punih srodnika uzorkovanih na tri izložbe pasa i u vojnom centru za obuku pasa) utvrđenih na osnovu varijabilnosti devet jedarnih mikrosatelita. Rezultati našeg istraživanja su potvrdili prethodne navode koji se odnose na visok stepen genetičkog diverziteta u ispitivanoj populaciji JOP (HE=0.728±0.027) i nizak stepen ukrštanja u srodstvu, ali i pokazali moguću genetičku strukturu ove rase. Naime, primenom Bajesove metode grupisanja, kao i na osnovu grupisanja po metodi najbližih suseda, nalaza o suvišku homozigota (tzv. Valundov efekat), testova neravnoteže vezanosti gena, analize glavnih komponenti i dvodimenzionalnog skaliranja, ustanovili smo postojanje dve različite genetičke grupe. Jedinke iz obe genetičke grupe bile su približno jednako zastupljene na svim mestima uzorkovanja. Jedna grupa obuhvatala je jedinke sa visokim genetičkim integritetom, dok su drugu grupu činile jedinke hibridnih genetičkih profila, koji su mogli nastali ukrštanjem sa neregistovanim psima koji su u tipu JOP ili sa drugim rasama, kao što je kavkaski ovčar, i/ili sa hibridima nastalih ukrštanjem sa vukovima. Sumirano, ovim istraživanjem ustanovljeno je veoma složeno i raznoliko poreklo JOP, što ukazuje na genetički heterogen karakter osnivačke populacije ove rase.

Pine pitch canker (PPC), caused by the pathogenic fungus Fusarium circinatum (Nirenberg and O&rsquo ; Donnell), is a serious threat to pine forests globally. The recent introduction of the pathogen to Southern Europe and its spread in Mediterranean region is alarming considering the immense ecological and economic importance of pines in the region. Pines in forests and nurseries can be infected, resulting in severe growth losses and mortality. The pathogen is known to spread in plants for planting and in seeds, and results from recent studies have indicated that F. circinatum may also spread through phoretic associations with certain insects. With this review, we aim to expand the current understanding of the risk of insect-mediated spread of PPC in different parts of Europe. Through the joint action of a multinational researcher team, we collate the existing information about the insect species spectrum in different biogeographic conditions and scrutinize the potential of these insects to transmit F. circinatum spores in forests and nurseries. We also discuss the impact of environmental factors and forest management in this context. We present evidence for the existence of a high diversity of insects with potential to weaken pines and disseminate PPC in Europe, including several common beetle species. In many parts of Europe, temperatures are projected to rise, which may promote the activity of several insect species, supporting multivoltinism and thus, further amplifying the risk of insect-mediated dissemination of PPC. Integrated pest management (IPM) solutions that comply with forest management practices need to be developed to reduce this risk. We recommend careful monitoring of insect populations as the basis for successful IPM. Improved understanding of environmental control of the interaction between insects, the pathogen, and host trees is needed in order to support development of bio-rational strategies to safeguard European pine trees and forests against F. circinatum in future.