Suchergebnisse

In early 2019, the Islamic Republic of Iran marked its fortieth anniversary, despite decades of isolation, political pressure, sanctions and war. Observers of its security policies continue to try and make sense of this unlikely endurance. Some view the regime as a purely rational actor, whose national security decisions and military affairs are shaped by the same considerations as in other states. Others believe that it is ideology driving Tehran's strategy. Either way, virtually everyone agrees that the mullahs' policies are fundamentally different from those pursued by their monarchical predecessors. 'No Conquest, No Defeat' offers a historically grounded overview of Iranian national security issues.

The article of record may be found at https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/middle-east/2019-10-18/iran-unitary-state ; The drone strikes on two major Aramco oil facilities in Saudi Arabia in September left many observers puzzled. Though officials in Washington and Riyadh blamed Iran for the attacks, aggression of this kind seemed at odds with the more conciliatory positions of the government of Hassan Rouhani, Iran's president. Was it really in Iran's interest to so drastically escalate a simmering conflict with the United States and its regional partners? The Houthis, Iran's allies in Yemen's bloody civil war, immediately claimed [1] responsibility for hitting the oil fields, but the sophistication of the attack pointed to a state actor and, eventually, to Iran as the culprit. Though Iranian officials denied any involvement, some commentators suggested that elements of Iran's security apparatus participated in the attacks, even if the strikes weren't orchestrated at the level of the state.

The 1980–88 Iran-Iraq War stands as the pivotal event for Iran's national security strategy, especially as it pertains to the country's controversial nuclear program. The "imposed war," as it is known to Iranians, caused Iran to view itself as isolated and on the defensive, striving for self-reliance and survival in what it continues to perceive as an unjust international order. The war has shaped both Iran's strategic outlook generally and its nuclear policies specifically. It was a decisive factor in determining the nature and scope of Iran's nuclear activities, as well as in Iran's approach to the international negotiations surrounding those activities, which in 2015 produced the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. Both during those talks and after the implementation of the deal began, Iranian decisionmakers regularly invoked the history and lessons of the war to construe their decisionmaking process and define their bottom lines. Yet the war and its implications for Iran's strategic culture and nuclear thinking remain understudied and misunderstood. If the implementation of the deal and a longer-term resolution of the conflict over Iran's nuclear program are to succeed, the history of the Iran-Iraq War and the vital lessons that Iran has drawn from it must be appreciated.

Introduction -- Identifying Possible Drivers of Iranian Military Interventions -- Patterns in Historical Iranian Military Interventions -- Case Study: Iranian Intervention in the Syrian Civil War (2011-Present) -- Case Study: Iranian Intervention to Counter the Rising ISIS Threat in Iraq (2014-Present) -- Conclusion.

Introduction -- Why Do States Intervene? A Summary of Past Research -- A Quantitative Look at Adversary Military Interventions -- Summary of Factors Driving Adversary Interventions -- Summary, Signposts, and Implications -- Appendix A: Full List of Adversary Intervention Cases -- Appendix B: Coding of Adversary Case Studies -- Appendix C: Key Factors for Other U.S. Adversaries.