Suchergebnisse

Los actuales niveles de endeudamiento soberano en la eurozona implican un flujo futuro de superávits públicos primarios que puede ralentizar la posible recuperación de las economías más endeudadas y, con ello, aumentar la carga de la deuda a medio plazo, entrando en un círculo vicioso de difícil solución. El Pacto Fiscal obliga a todos los Estados miembros de la eurozona a reducir anualmente en un 5% su exceso de deuda sobre el 60% del PIB a lo largo de 20 años. Por todo lo anterior, resulta necesario alcanzar un mecanismo que permita aliviar la carga de la deuda. ; The current levels of sovereign debt within the Eurozone imply a future flux of primary government surpluses that may slow down any possible recovery of the most heavily indebted economies, thus increasing the burden of debts in the medium term, which would involve entering a difficult-to-tackle vicious cycle. The Fiscal Compact obliges all Member States in the Eurozone to reduce by 5% on an annual basis their excess of debt on 60% of their GDP throughout 20 years. Given this scenario, it is necessary to envisage a mechanism allowing to relieve the burden of debt.

In this paper we analyze the potential determinants of US outward FDI stock with aparticular focus on the euro effect during the period 1985-2017. To this aim, we considera large set of candidate variables suggested both theory and previous empirical anal-ysis. We select the covariates using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA), a data-drivenmethodology. Our sample includes a total of 56 host countries, that represent aroundthe 70% of US outward FDI stock. We study the role of the euro on American FDI bothin Europe and the rest of the world. In Europe, we consider various country groups:the European Union (EU), the Euro Area (EA), as well as core and periphery within thislast group. We conclude that many variables studied by previous FDI literature cannotbe considered robust determinants. Moreover, US OFDI is explained by both horizon-tal and vertical motives. However, HFDI strategies predominate in EA core countries,whereas VFDI prevails in the periphery. As for the euro effect, the common currencyseems to have played an important role encouraging US FDI, being a crucial element inthe convergence of EA periphery to its core. In addition, our results indicate that theadoption of the euro has favoured VFDI to the detriment of HFDI.

The last decades have witnessed an increasing interest in FDI and the process of production fragmentation. This has been particularly important for Germany as the core of the European Union (EU) production hub. This paper provides a comprehen- sive empirical evidence of the determinants of German outward FDI in the EU for the period 1996-2012. First, we extend previous BMA analysis developed by Camarero et al. (2019) by including country-pair-fixed effects to select the appropriate set of vari- ables. Second, we compare several estimation methods in their multiplicative form, namely, four versions of the Generalized Linear Model (GLM). The results of the em- pirical application indicate that Gamma Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (GPML) is the best performing estimator. Furthermore, our results point to horizontal-ness as the pri- mary strategy for German investment in core EU countries while vertical-ness seems to prevail in peripheral EU countries.

Over the last 15 years, the evolution of labor costs has been very diverse across EMU countries. Since wages have important second-round effects on prices and competitiveness, and EMU countries do not have the tool of the nominal exchange rate to correct for such imbalances, understanding the determinants of the wage is a matter of increasing concern and debate. We estimate the equilibrium wage equation for the Euro Area over the period 1995-2011 using panel cointegration techniques that allow for cross-section dependence and structural breaks. The results show that the equilibrium wage has a positive relation with productivity and negative relation with unemployment, as expected. We also include institutional variables in our analysis, showing that a more flexible labor market is consistent with long-run wage moderation. Allowing for a regime break, we find that, since 2004, possibly due to increased international competition, wage determination was more strictly related to productivity, and real wage appreciation triggers a drop in the real wage. Furthermore, results point to a wage-moderating role of government intervention and concertation in wage bargaining. ; The authors gratefully acknowledge financial support from MINECO project ECO2014-58991-C3-2-R, Generalitat Valenciana Prometeo action 2009/098 and the European Commission (Lifelong Learning Program-Jean Monnet Action references 542457-LLP-1-2013-1-ES-AJM-CL and 542434-LLP-1-2013-1-ES-AJM-CL).