Suchergebnisse

In this research, the concept of Duration with a new application in project management has been defined. The Duration of each project provides the project manager with a combined measure containing concepts of return, cost and time of the project. Further in this article, the changes in project return, based on different assumptions such as discount rate, have been examined. To examine the effect of the changes in these factors, the Monte Carlo simulation has been used. The relationship between these factors is nonlinear which reflects the great importance of investment on appropriate risk management systems. The data from a set of construction projects have been used in order to verify the results of this study. Similar relationships can be expected to exist in other industries as well.

This paper attempted to calculate the market risk in the Tehran Stock Exchange by estimating the Conditional Value at Risk. Since the Conditional Value at Risk is a tail-related measure, Extreme Value Theory has been utilized to estimate the risk more accurately. Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models were used to model the volatility-clustering feature, and to estimate the parameters of the model, the Maximum Likelihood method was applied. The results of the study showed that in the estimation of model parameters, assuming T-student distribution function gave better results than the Normal distribution function. The Monte Carlo simulation method was used for backtesting the Conditional Value at Risk model, and in the end, the performance of different models, in the estimation of this measure, was compared.

As the economic conditions in Eastern European countries were changing, so were changing the visions of urban development, which came to be associated with private property and a pursuit of business investments. One of the most important tasks in urban planning today remains efficient models to find a place for high-rise buildings in the urban pattern. The paper aims to identify the most efficient ways to locate high-rise buildings in Vilnius, in reference to many years of related experience of other European cities. Article presents a multi-stage complex assessment model for the location of high-rise buildings in the urban structure. The proposed model is composed from three decision making methods. The first method applied in our research was the SWOT analysis (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats), which allows assessing current European practices with different models for the location of high-rise buildings in the urban pattern. To determine the weights of criteria reflecting social-economic, political and aesthetic urban planning aspects, the method of expert judgement was used. The next method used was SAW (Simple Additive Weighting), which makes it possible to rank the best alternatives of high-rise buildings location using a pre-selected set of criteria. The research proves that SWOT, expert judgment and SAW are appropriate methods for various kinds of urban planning tasks.

In developing countries, governments are often unable to implement urban infrastructure construction projects (UICPs) on their own, mainly due to budget and financial resource limitations. The participation of the private sector, through public–private partnerships (PPPs), has been considered as an alternative effective method for increasing the efficiency and productivity of urban infrastructure development. However, in many developing countries such as those situated in the Middle East, attracting private sector investments for UICPs uncovers profound challenges that have not ever been comprehensively accounted for and prioritized. To fill this knowledge gap, this study seeks to determine and prioritize the major barriers and risks faced by governments and urban managers in attracting private sector investments through the PPP schemes launched by developing countries in the Middle East. Based on a Delphi study conducted in Iran as an example, the opinions of 60 UICPs experts in both the public and private sectors were collected and analyzed. Results show that technical and organizational barriers and risks were perceived as the most important to private sector participation, followed by economic and financial barriers and risks, and then political and legal barriers and risks.

In developing countries, governments are often unable to implement urban infrastructure construction projects (UICPs) on their own, mainly due to budget and financial resource limitations. The participation of the private sector, through public–private partnerships (PPPs), has been considered as an alternative effective method for increasing the efficiency and productivity of urban infrastructure development. However, in many developing countries such as those situated in the Middle East, attracting private sector investments for UICPs uncovers profound challenges that have not ever been comprehensively accounted for and prioritized. To fill this knowledge gap, this study seeks to determine and prioritize the major barriers and risks faced by governments and urban managers in attracting private sector investments through the PPP schemes launched by developing countries in the Middle East. Based on a Delphi study conducted in Iran as an example, the opinions of 60 UICPs experts in both the public and private sectors were collected and analyzed. Results show that technical and organizational barriers and risks were perceived as the most important to private sector participation, followed by economic and financial barriers and risks, and then political and legal barriers and risks.

Foreign direct investment (FDI) is inhibited by political risk. Developing countries tend to experience higher levels of such risk, yet need foreign capital to generate growth. Moreover, foreign direct investment in infrastructure (FDII) – fundamental to economic growth – is particularly sensitive to political risk; characterized by high capital investment, longer investment periods, while especially exposed to mercurial shifts in government policy. Yet, no comprehensive study has been undertaken that measures the impact of political risk on FDII in developing countries. This paper addresses this lack. Twelve political risk indicators, drawn from the International Country Risk Guide Index, are used to quantify the political risk inherent to 90 developing countries, over the period 2006 to 2015. An Arellano-Bond GMM estimator is developed which measures the dollar value impact of risk on both FDI and FDII. A comparison of results confirms that FDII is generally more sensitive to risk than is FDI, however the influence of risk categories is found to vary significantly. The findings can be expected to inform infrastructure policy-makers and foreign investors alike on the dollar-impact of determinable risk levels on foreign-funded projects, and in so doing better facilitate corrective risk mitigation strategies.

In a situation of growing water demand, inadequate public funding, poor asset condition and lack of maintenance in developing countries, public-private partnerships (PPPs) play an important role in the development of infrastructure, such as water supply and sewerage services. The purpose of this study is to develop a quantitative approach to appropriate risk allocation, with attention directed to the impact of positive and negative factors in water and sewerage projects. The paper presents a hybrid SWARA-COPRAS approach to examine risk allocation, particularly for PPP water supply and sewerage projects in the context of Malaysia. In addition to PPP infrastructure projects, the approach has the potential to be adapted to other applications. The proposed method enables decision makers to utilise qualitative linguistic terms in the allocation of risk between the public and private sector, and to select the best strategy for risk allocation in a contract. Finally, 24 significant risks were identified: six risks would preferably be allocated to the public sector, while seven risks would be assigned to the private sector, and eleven risks would preferably be shared by both parties. The finding from this study can help the government of Malaysia to determine an attractive political strategy for private investors to support a PPP water and sewerage infrastructure project.

Foreign direct investment (FDI) is inhibited by political risk. Developing countries tend to experience higher levels of such risk, yet need foreign capital to generate growth. Moreover, foreign direct investment in infrastructure (FDII) – fundamental to economic growth – is particularly sensitive to political risk; characterized by high capital investment, longer investment periods, while especially exposed to mercurial shifts in government policy. Yet, no comprehensive study has been undertaken that measures the impact of political risk on FDII in developing countries. This paper addresses this lack. Twelve political risk indicators, drawn from the International Country Risk Guide Index, are used to quantify the political risk inherent to 90 developing countries, over the period 2006 to 2015. An Arellano-Bond GMM estimator is developed which measures the dollar value impact of risk on both FDI and FDII. A comparison of results confirms that FDII is generally more sensitive to risk than is FDI, however the influence of risk categories is found to vary significantly. The findings can be expected to inform infrastructure policy-makers and foreign investors alike on the dollar-impact of determinable risk levels on foreign-funded projects, and in so doing better facilitate corrective risk mitigation strategies.

In a situation of growing water demand, inadequate public funding, poor asset condition and lack of maintenance in developing countries, public-private partnerships (PPPs) play an important role in the development of infrastructure, such as water supply and sewerage services. The purpose of this study is to develop a quantitative approach to appropriate risk allocation, with attention directed to the impact of positive and negative factors in water and sewerage projects. The paper presents a hybrid SWARA-COPRAS approach to examine risk allocation, particularly for PPP water supply and sewerage projects in the context of Malaysia. In addition to PPP infrastructure projects, the approach has the potential to be adapted to other applications. The proposed method enables decision makers to utilise qualitative linguistic terms in the allocation of risk between the public and private sector, and to select the best strategy for risk allocation in a contract. Finally, 24 significant risks were identified: six risks would preferably be allocated to the public sector, while seven risks would be assigned to the private sector, and eleven risks would preferably be shared by both parties. The finding from this study can help the government of Malaysia to determine an attractive political strategy for private investors to support a PPP water and sewerage infrastructure project.