Russian economy has reached the low level of inflation, but economic growth has not accelerated. Moreover, according to official forecasts, in the following years it will still be low. The article concludes that domestic demand, which is one of the main factors of growth, is significantly constrained by monetary, budgetary and fiscal spheres. The situation in the Russian economy is still hampered by the decline of the world economic growth. The prospects of financial markets are highly uncertain. This increases the possibility of crisis in the world. Leading countries widely use non-traditional measures to support their economies in the similar environment. In the world economy as well as in Russia a principally new combination of factors has emerged, which create specific features of economic growth. It requires special set of measures to stimulate such growth. The article proves that Russian regulators have large unused potential to stimulate growth. It includes monetization, long-money creation, budget and tax stimuli. It is important that the instruments, which will be used, should be based on domestic mechanisms. This will strengthen financial basis of the economy and may encourage economic growth. Some specific suggestions as to their use are made.
The situation in the global economy remains difficult and the level of uncertainty about future prospects remains high. This is largely due to the ongoing pandemic, the beginning of monetary tightening in leading economies, the generally changing conditions in global financial markets, etc. In such conditions, it becomes important for the Russian economy to strengthen domestic sources in order to maintain economic growth and ensure stable high rates. The key mechanisms for this are budgetary and monetary policy. However, despite the fundamentally changing conditions in the global economy and financial system, the approaches that were previously used by the Russian monetary authorities generally remain the same. The authors provide an analytical view of a number of approaches outlined in two key documents — the Federal Budget of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation and the Guidelines for the Monetary Policy of the Bank of Russia for 2022–2024. The inconsistence of the toughening of approaches in these two documents is substantiated. The importance of more active participation of the monetary authorities in providing favorable conditions for business and the population and, in general, in providing opportunities for economic growth is indicated.
The high level of income inequality of the population is a long-term problem in the world. The pandemic of 2020 and the growth of geopolitical tensions in 2022 increase the urgency of finding its solution. Inequality is a multifaceted phenomenon determined by various factors — from differences in the structure of economies to the specifics of the mentality and traditions of a particular state. As a result, there are no unified approaches to reducing inequality. This article analyzes the relationship of income inequality in Russia with the parametersof fiscal policy and the ruble exchange rate at different stages of economic development. It is shown that in certain periods taxes are connected differentlywith income inequality of the population in Russia. The important role of social spending in its reducing is shown; such dependence may be explained by the ruble exchange rate and its linkages with the budget policy. The article is setting stage for further analysis of the problem.
В мировой экономике сохраняется повышенный уровень неопределенности. Высоки риски замедления экономического роста, а также обвалов на глобальных фондовых рынках. В таких условиях в России, экономика которой многие годы зависела от внешних факторов, а сейчас еще действуют и антироссийские санкции, закономерно встает вопрос поиска и обеспечения внутренних основ экономического роста, важнейшей из которых является внутренний спрос. Однако в стране сохраняется довольно неблагоприятная среда для развития экономической активности. Остаются высокими процентные ставки, курс рубля нестабилен, повышаются налоговые ставки, экономическая политика недостаточно понятна. На основе эконометрического анализа статистических данных регионов России (включающих ряд регионов ЦФО) была подтверждена выявленная другими экспертами слабая взаимосвязь инвестиций и валового регионального продукта. Это может быть следствием низкой эффективности осуществляемых инвестиций и относительно невысокого мультипликативного эффекта инвестируемых направлений. В сложившихся условиях правильный выбор отраслей с высоким мультипликатором и эффективностью инвестиций создает потенциал для повышения внутреннего спроса. При этом важны механизмы расширения ресурсов, направленных на региональный экономический рост. В этой связи сформулированы конкретные подходы, которые могут создать условия для расширения финансовых ресурсов регионов с целью поддержания экономической активности, внутреннего спроса и экономики в целом, в том числе с учетом социальной составляющей этих процессов. В числе подходов - формирование механизмов, стимулирующих участие в финансировании экономических процессов со стороны банков, выпуск федеральных или региональных облигаций с участием Банка России в качестве покупателя таких бумаг и др. Предложения в статье учитывают также зарубежный опыт стимулирования роста, включая региональный уровень. Они могут быть применены финансовыми регуляторами, а также профильными ведомствами регионов при выработке экономической политики. ; World economy shows a high level of uncertainty. There are considerable risks of economic slowdown and stock market collapse. For many years, the Russian economy has been dependent on external factors. Recently, when anti-Russian sanctions are imposed, it is particularly important to find internal sources of growth, including domestic demand as the most significant factor. However, environment for the development of the Russian economy remains unfavourable due to high interest rates, volatile exchange rate, increasing tax rates, and ambiguous economic policy. Based on the analysis of regional statistics (including some regions of the Central Federal District), we confirmed the weak relationship between investments and gross regional product (GRP) revealed by other scientists. This may be the result of poor investment efficiency and its low multiplier effect. In this situation, the right choice of sectors with high multipliers and investment efficiency creates the potential for increasing domestic demand. Simultaneously, mechanisms for the expansion of resources ensuring regional economic growth play an important role. In this regard, we developed approaches aimed at the creation of conditions for the expansion of regional financial resources to support economic activity, domestic demand and economy in general, considering a social aspect of these processes. Some of the proposed mechanisms stimulate the participation of banks in financing economic processes, federal or regional bond issuance (the Bank of Russia would be the main buyer), etc. These proposals consider the experience of other countries in stimulating economic growth, including at the regional level. Financial regulators and relevant regional agencies can use the research results for developing economic policies. ; Статья подготовлена по результатам исследований, выполненных за счет средств по Государственному заданию Финуниверситета. ; The article has been prepared with the support of budgetary funds in accordance with the state task for the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation.
