Suchergebnisse

In this paper we present a model description of the impact of labor migration on the development of economic systems in countries of migration attraction. It should be emphasized that labor migration is one of the major factors in the development of the labor market. The inflow of migrants into a region should correspond to the labor resources demand of the labor market. To estimate and predict the migration flows between countries with different level of socio-economic development we elaborated a dynamic multi-factor model, which is based on the assumptions of the positional games theory and allows to predict the behavior of each individual, depending on economic factors. According to the model idea, potential migrants have the information on the difference of living and working conditions in both countries of origin and migration attraction. This model takes into account several economic theories of migration and describes the migrant's behavior in terms of migration barriers absence. At the final step of modeling we provide an assessment of migration impact on the development of socio-economic systems in the countries of migration attraction using an approach, which is based on a production function of Cobb-Douglas type. © 2018 ; The research was supported by Act «211 of the Government of the Russian Federation, agreement № 02.A03.21.0006».

In this article we examine the processes of academic potential reproduction, taking into account the main threats from scientific migration. Historically, since the 1990-s the amount of researchers in Russian Federation decreased by 58%. Under these conditions it is necessary to estimate the scale of further scientific migration and the outflow of researchers to other spheres of economy. For this purpose we developed a synthetic construction of dynamic models of labor migration and proportional economic growth with two-level optimization. The basis of this model is presented by the classical problem of optimal investments into capital management, expanded by the control unit of total costs directed to the labor resources. This model construction allows us to describe the migration movement between scientific organizations and institutes, taking into account the difference in working conditions. The pricing mechanism in this model is based on the assumption of organization's output maximization at a fixed cost. As result we obtained a multi-level model for the prediction of scientific personnel migratory flows between organizations. © 2018 ; The research was supported by Act «211 of the Government of the Russian Federation, agreement № 02.A03.21.0006».

This paper presents a dynamic multiregional model of labor migration in continuous time within the framework of the neoclassical economics. The model can predict the dynamics of migration flows as well as the dynamics of economic effects of migration simultaneously for host regions and source countries. Thanks to liberalization of the migratory legislation of the Russian Federation in 2007, the model can be used for Russian regions and CIS states, which citizens were granted entry without a visa and a simplified procedure of employment in Russia. Employing the model to statistical data, forecast trajectories of migration flows to Russian regions from CIS states have been received for the period since 2010 to 2016. The predicted migration looks quite realistic and has important policy consequences. In particular, these findings can be used for developing work permit quotas.

In this article we examine the impact of international university rankings on their further development. The answers on questions about the influence of ratings indicators on higher educational institutions, as well as the effectiveness of universities financing in proportion to the position in the rating, were identified. The effectiveness of financial investments in universities when promoting one point in international rankings was calculated using an integrated assessment. Our hypothesis is that due to the achievement of target variables of the rating changes the universities structure: the effectiveness of scientific and innovation activity increases, which leads to an increase in the volume of income from this type of activity. From the point of view of scientific and practical importance, it is possible to group higher education institutions on the basis of the results obtained and allocate funds for them, which will allow achieving target indicators. Thus, this method allows you to evaluate the achievement of maximum results and optimize the funding flow. © 2018 ; The research was supported by Act « «211 of the Government of the Russian Federation, agreement № 02.A03.21.0006».

The analysis of migration processes shows the need to simulate the dynamics of migration flows, to describe the trends in the redistribution of labor in the current period and to forecast for the short term. To estimate and predict labor migration flows in terms of different levels of the labor markets development we elaborated a dynamic multi-factor migration model. The model takes into account the assumptions of the positional games theory, which allows predicting the behavior of a potential migrant, depending on an amount of socio-economic factors. We emphasize, that labor migration is one of the major factors in the development of the labor markets and in the redistribution of qualified workforce between them. To ensure sustainable development and economic growth of socio-economic systems the inflow of migrants into a region should correspond to the labor resources demand of the labor market. According to the model idea, potential migrants have full information about the difference in living and working conditions both in the countries of origin and attraction of migrants, which allows describing the decision-making process in the model. To improve the predictive accuracy of the model, we developed a method of assessing the migration attractiveness of the region, based on the principle of differentiation of regional economic systems by the level of socio-economic benefits. We obtain the synthetic parameter of the model, describing the migration attractiveness of the region, by combining socio-economic indicators in a relative form, reflecting the degree of development of the social system and the labor market in the region. © 2020 American Institute of Physics Inc. All rights reserved. ; The work was supported by Act 211 Government of the Russian Federation, contract N 02.A03.21.0006.

Recent trends in the global education system are leading to the increasing competition in the field of higher education, which represent a big challenge for the universities participating in major rankings such as QS and THE. To improve the efficiency of the University, it is necessary to adjust its educational trajectories and programs in such a way as to meet the expectations of the student and the needs of the labor market. To describe the individual choice of the educational path, we used an econometric model, which takes into account the economic motivation of a potential student. Based on this model, we made a reasonable forecast of the future professional choice of students and their future income. After evaluating the amount of possible alternative educational paths for students, we made an estimation of the probability of a student changing of educational path using fuzzy logic model of Mamdani type. According to this approach, the probability of changing the educational trajectory for the student is calculated based on panel data, taking into account the amount of possible directions of graduation and educational paths of the student, the possibility of budgetary support of the graduation and the expected level of wages after graduation. To estimate the probability we developed a set of rules of the fuzzy inference system, designed to simulate the human behavior of making the decision of change between one and another educational path. The proposed architecture of the educational process analysis system (EPAS) provides educational institutions with the opportunity to establish business rules in accordance with their own needs. Based on this model, it is possible to analyze the impact of students' choice on the economic sectors development. © 2020 American Institute of Physics Inc. All rights reserved. ; The work was supported by Act 211 Government of the Russian Federation, contract N 02.A03.21.0006.

The book examines problems associated with green growth and sustainable development on the basis of recent contributions in economics, natural sciences and applied mathematics, especially optimal control theory. Its main topics include pollution, biodiversity, exhaustible resources and climate change. The integrating framework of the book is dynamic systems theory which offers a common basis for multidisciplinatory research and mathematical tools for solving complicated models, leading to new insights in environmental issues.?

The article explores the problem of optimising university training structure to increase focus on the labour market. The proposed solution is constructed using a deterministic approach in which the following vectors are formed: the phase vector, whose coordinates are the values of the parameters describing the training process in higher education institutions at a certain fixed point in time; the controlling action vector (control vector) that allows influencing (by means of funding, the school-leaving exam score required for admission and other parameters) the structure, volume and quality of university training on various degree courses (educational programs), as well as the corresponding deterministic restrictions. The construction of the optimisation model is realised in two stages. At the first stage, a discrete dynamic model is formed that describes the influence of the control vector on the parameters of the system parameters phase vector. At the second stage, restrictions are formed on the parameters of the mathematical model that take into account the labour market demand for university graduates, and the quality criteria (functionals) that allow evaluating the process under consideration at a set final point in time. © 2018 ; Government Council on Grants, Russian Federation ; The research was supported by «Act 211 of the Government of the Russian Federation, agreement № 02.A03.21.0006».

The book examines problems associated with green growth and sustainable development on the basis of recent contributions in economics, natural sciences and applied mathematics, especially optimal control theory. Its main topics include pollution, biodiversity, exhaustible resources and climate change. The integrating framework of the book is dynamic systems theory which offers a common basis for multidisciplinatory research and mathematical tools for solving complicated models, leading to new insights in environmental issues. ?

In our work we analyze a set of economic factors, which affect on student's decision of educational path change. Taking into account such factors as the expected salary after graduation, educational costs, set of government exams and the amount of educational paths in the university, we estimate the possibility for each student to optimize his personal educational path. To describe the behavior of a rational individual and to estimate the optimal and preferred educational path under these conditions we use the classical economic theory, the classical theory of economic behavior, the methodology of increasing efficiency of the human capital and the institutional economic theory. To describe the economic motivations of an individual by changing the educational path we developed a mathematical-economic model of optimization and tested it on real data on more than 5,3 thousand students. It is necessary to highlight that, mainly, the choice of an educational path by a rational individual is driven by economic motivations and by his knowledge on the expected earning level after the graduation. In our model we compare the educational paths, which were chosen by students and take into account the importance of personal expectations to set and calculate the optimal, from the point of view of economic rationality, educational path, which is compared with current student's educational path. According to the modeling results, 66% of all students have chosen their optimal educational path taking into account their economic preferences and personal skills. To estimate the possibility for each student to change his educational path we developed an approach, that is based on the fuzzy logic model of Mamdani type. According to this approach, the possibility of educational path change for a student is calculated on the panel data taking into account the amount of perspective directions of student's graduation and educational paths, the possibility of budget support of the graduation and the expected salary level after graduation. As the application of this approach we can estimate the probability of educational path change for each student and optimize the education process in the University. © 2018 ; The research was supported by «Act 211 of the Government of the Russian Federation, agreement № 02.A03.21.0006».