Suchergebnisse

Abstract. Drought is considered as one of the major natural hazards with a significant impact on agriculture, environment, society and economy. Droughts affect sustainability of agriculture and may result in environmental degradation of a region, which is one of the factors contributing to the vulnerability of agriculture. This paper addresses agrometeorological or agricultural drought within the risk management framework. Risk management consists of risk assessment, as well as a feedback on the adopted risk reduction measures. And risk assessment comprises three distinct steps, namely risk identification, risk estimation and risk evaluation. This paper deals with risk identification of agricultural drought, which involves drought quantification and monitoring, as well as statistical inference. For the quantitative assessment of agricultural drought, as well as the computation of spatiotemporal features, one of the most reliable and widely used indices is applied, namely the vegetation health index (VHI). The computation of VHI is based on satellite data of temperature and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). The spatiotemporal features of drought, which are extracted from VHI, are areal extent, onset and end time, duration and severity. In this paper, a 20-year (1981–2001) time series of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/advanced very high resolution radiometer (NOAA/AVHRR) satellite data is used, where monthly images of VHI are extracted. Application is implemented in Thessaly, which is the major agricultural drought-prone region of Greece, characterized by vulnerable agriculture. The results show that agricultural drought appears every year during the warm season in the region. The severity of drought is increasing from mild to extreme throughout the warm season, with peaks appearing in the summer. Similarly, the areal extent of drought is also increasing during the warm season, whereas the number of extreme drought pixels is much less than those of mild to moderate drought throughout the warm season. Finally, the areas with diachronic drought persistence can be located. Drought early warning is developed using empirical functional relationships of severity and areal extent. In particular, two second-order polynomials are fitted, one for low and the other for high severity drought classes, respectively. The two fitted curves offer a forecasting tool on a monthly basis from May to October. The results of this drought risk identification effort are considered quite satisfactory offering a prognostic potential. The adopted remote-sensing data and methods have proven very effective in delineating spatial variability and features in drought quantification and monitoring.

Abstract. Drought prediction is crucial, especially where the rainfall regime is irregular, such as in Mediterranean countries. A new combined drought indicator (CDI) integrating rainfall, soil moisture and vegetation dynamics is proposed. Standardized precipitation index (SPI) is used for evaluating rainfall trends. A bucket-type soil moisture model is employed for keeping track of soil moisture and calculating anomalies, and, finally, satellite-based normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data are used for monitoring vegetation response. The proposed CDI has four levels, at increasing degrees of severity: watch, warning, alert type I and alert type II. This CDI was thus applied over the period 2003–2013 to five study sites, representative of the main grain-growing areas of SW Spain. The performance of the CDI levels was assessed by comparison with observed crop damage data. Observations show a good match between crop damage and the CDI. Important crop drought events in 2004–2005 and 2011–2012, distinguished by crop damage in between 70 % and 95 % of the total insured area, were correctly predicted by the proposed CDI in all five areas.

Open Access Journal; Published online: 04 Mar 2020 ; Global and European diets have shifted towards greater consumption of animal proteins. Recent studies urge reversals of these trends and call for a rapid transition towards adoption of more plant-based diets. This paper explored mechanisms to increase the production and consumption of plant-proteins in Europe by 2030, using participatory backcasting. We identified pathways to the future (strategies), as well as interim milestones, barriers, opportunities and actions, with key European stakeholders in the agri-food chain. Results show that four strategies could be implemented to achieve the desired future: increased research and development, enriched consumer education and awareness, improved and connected supply and value chains and public policy supports. Actions needed to reach milestones were required immediately, reinforcing the need for urgent actions to tackle the protein challenge. This study concretely detailed how idealized dietary futures can be achieved in a real-world context. It can support EU protein transition by informing policy makers and the broader public on potential ways to move towards a more sustainable plant-based future. The outputs of this analysis have the potential to be combined with dietary scenarios to develop more temporally explicit models of future dietary changes and how to reach them.

Abstract. Extreme rainfall events are a serious concern for regional hydrology and agriculture in the Ebro River Basin. Repeated anomalous rainfall in recent decades has had a devastating impact on this region, both socially and economically. Some studies developed in Italy and USA have shown that there is a change in seasonal patterns and an increasing frequency of extreme rainfall events, whereas other studies have pointed out that no global behaviour could be observed in monthly trends due to high climatic variability. The aim of this work is to test which of these scenarios is the case for the Ebro River Basin. For this purpose, 14 meteorological stations were selected based on the length of the rainfall series and the climatic classification to obtain a representative untreated dataset from the river basin. Daily rainfall series from 1957 to 2002 were obtained from each meteorological station. First, classical climatic indexes were analysed with an autoregressive test to study possible trends in rainfall. The results can be explained following the evolution of the NAO and WeMO indexes, which indicate that the initial period should be subdivided in two periods (1957–1979 and 1980–2002) to assume stationarity and to analyse the rainfall distribution functions. The general results obtained in this study for both sub-periods, through the generalised Pareto distribution (GPD) parameters and the maximum expected return values, do not support the results previously obtained by other authors that affirm a positive trend in extreme rainfall indexes and point to a slight reduction indicated by others. Three extreme precipitation indexes show negative statistical significant trends. GPD-scale parameters decrease except for only one rain gauge, although this decrease is only statistically significant for two rain gauges. Another two locations show statistical significance decreased for maximum expected return values.

Abstract. The impact of climate change and its relation with evapotranspiration was evaluated in the Duero River Basin (Spain). The study shows possible future situations 50 yr from now from the reference evapotranspiration (ETo). The maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), dew point (Td), wind speed (U) and net radiation (Rn) trends during the 1980–2009 period were obtained and extrapolated with the FAO-56 Penman-Montheith equation to estimate ETo. Changes in stomatal resistance in response to increases in CO2 were also considered. Four scenarios were done, taking the concentration of CO2 and the period analyzed (annual or monthly) into consideration. The scenarios studied showed the changes in ETo as a consequence of the annual and monthly trends in the variables Tmax, Tmin, Td, U and Rn with current and future CO2 concentrations (372 ppm and 550 ppm). The future ETo showed increases between 118 mm (11 %) and 55 mm (5 %) with respect to the current situation of the river basin at 1042 mm. The months most affected by climate change are May, June, July, August and September, which also coincide with the maximum water needs of the basin's crops.

Abstract. The evapotranspiration-based scheduling method is the most common method for irrigation programming in agriculture. There is no doubt that the estimation of the reference evapotranspiration (ETo) is a key factor in irrigated agriculture. However, the high cost and maintenance of agrometeorological stations and high number of sensors required to estimate it make it non-plausible, especially in rural areas. For this reason, the estimation of ETo using air temperature, in places where wind speed, solar radiation and air humidity data are not readily available, is particularly attractive. A daily data record of 49 stations distributed over Duero basin (Spain), for the period 2000–2018, was used for estimation of ETo based on seven models against Penman–Monteith (PM) FAO 56 (FAO – Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations) from a temporal (annual or seasonal) and spatial perspective. Two Hargreaves–Samani (HS) models, with and without calibration, and five Penman–Monteith temperature (PMT) models were used in this study. The results show that the models' performance changes considerably, depending on whether the scale is annual or seasonal. The performance of the seven models was acceptable from an annual perspective (R2>0.91, NSE > 0.88, MAE < 0.52 and RMSE < 0.69 mm d−1; NSE – Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency; MAE – mean absolute error; RMSE – root-mean-square error). For winter, no model showed good performance. In the rest of the seasons, the models with the best performance were the following three models: PMTCUH (Penman–Monteith temperature with calibration of Hargreaves empirical coefficient – kRS, average monthly value of wind speed, and average monthly value of maximum and minimum relative humidity), HSC (Hargreaves–Samani with calibration of kRS) and PMTOUH (Penman–Monteith temperature without calibration of kRS, average monthly value of wind speed and average monthly value of maximum and minimum relative humidity). The HSC model presents a calibration of the Hargreaves empirical coefficient (kRS). In the PMTCUH model, kRS was calibrated and average monthly values were used for wind speed and maximum and minimum relative humidity. Finally, the PMTOUH model is like the PMTCUH model except that kRS was not calibrated. These results are very useful for adopting appropriate measures for efficient water management, especially in the intensive agriculture in semi-arid zones, under the limitation of agrometeorological data.

Abstract. Rice production in Ecuador is steadily affected by extreme climatic events
that make it difficult for farmers to cope with production risk, threatening rural livelihoods and food security in the country. Developing agricultural insurance is a policy option that has gained traction in the last decade. Index-based agricultural insurance has become a promising alternative that allows insurance companies to ascertain and quantify losses without verifying a catastrophic event in situ, lowering operative costs and easing implementation. But its development can be hindered by basis risk, which occurs when real losses in farms do not fit accurately with the selected index. Avoiding basis risk requires assessing the variability within the insurance application area and considering it for representative index selection. In this context, we have designed an index-based insurance (IBI) that uses a vegetation index (normalized difference vegetation index – NDVI) as an indicator of drought and flood impact on rice in the canton of Babahoyo (Ecuador). Babahoyo was divided in two agro-ecological homogeneous zones (AHZs) to account for variability, and two NDVI threshold values were defined to consider, first, the event impact on crops (physiological threshold) and, second, its impact on the gross margin (economic threshold). This design allows us to set up accurate insurance premiums and compensation that fit the particular conditions of each AHZ, reducing basis risk.

Global and European diets have shifted towards greater consumption of animal proteins. Recent studies urge reversals of these trends and call for a rapid transition towards adoption of more plant-based diets. This paper explored mechanisms to increase the production and consumption of plant-proteins in Europe by 2030, using participatory backcasting. We identified pathways to the future (strategies), as well as interim milestones, barriers, opportunities and actions, with key European stakeholders in the agri-food chain. Results show that four strategies could be implemented to achieve the desired future: increased research and development, enriched consumer education and awareness, improved and connected supply and value chains and public policy supports. Actions needed to reach milestones were required immediately, reinforcing the need for urgent actions to tackle the protein challenge. This study concretely detailed how idealized dietary futures can be achieved in a real-world context. It can support EU protein transition by informing policy makers and the broader public on potential ways to move towards a more sustainable plant-based future. The outputs of this analysis have the potential to be combined with dietary scenarios to develop more temporally explicit models of future dietary changes and how to reach them.

Global and European diets have shifted towards greater consumption of animal proteins. Recent studies urge reversals of these trends and call for a rapid transition towards adoption of more plant-based diets. This paper explored mechanisms to increase the production and consumption of plant-proteins in Europe by 2030, using participatory backcasting. We identified pathways to the future (strategies), as well as interim milestones, barriers, opportunities and actions, with key European stakeholders in the agri-food chain. Results show that four strategies could be implemented to achieve the desired future: increased research and development, enriched consumer education and awareness, improved and connected supply and value chains and public policy supports. Actions needed to reach milestones were required immediately, reinforcing the need for urgent actions to tackle the protein challenge. This study concretely detailed how idealized dietary futures can be achieved in a real-world context. It can support EU protein transition by informing policy makers and the broader public on potential ways to move towards a more sustainable plant-based future. The outputs of this analysis have the potential to be combined with dietary scenarios to develop more temporally explicit models of future dietary changes and how to reach them.

Open Access Journal ; The Amazon basin is the world's largest rainforest and the most biologically diverse place on Earth. Despite the critical importance of this region, Amazon forests continue inexorably to be degraded and deforested for various reasons, mainly a consequence of agricultural expansion. The development of novel policy strategies that provide balanced solutions, associating economic growth and environmental protection, is still challenging, largely because the perspective of those most affected- local stakeholders- is often ignored. Participatory Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (FCM) was implemented to examinestakeholder perceptions towards the sustainable development of two agricultural-forest frontier areas in the Bolivian and Brazilian Amazon. A series of development scenarios and a climate change scenario were explored and applied to stakeholder derived FCM. Stakeholders in both regions perceived landscapes of socio-economic impoverishment and environmental degradation driven by governmental and institutional deficiencies. Under such abject conditions, governance and well-integrated social and technological strategies offered socio-economic development, environmental conservation, and resilience to climatic changes. The results suggest the benefits of a new type of thinking for development strategies in the Amazon basin, and that continued application of traditional development policies reduce the resilience of the Amazon to climate change, whilst limiting socio-economic development and environmental conservation. ; Peer Review

Water, is in Spain a scarce commodity and although we have an age-old water culture, with an emblematic Court, such as the "Tribunal de las Aguas de Valencia", hydraulic infrastructure, hydrological basin plans, legislation and hydraulic administration since the 20th Century, there are problems of scarcity, water quality and extreme events that often lead to conflicts between users and also among the responsible administrations for their management. Within this framework, it is of a great interest the training of technicians in matters related to planning, quality and integrated water resources management for sustainable development. In Argentina (especially in the NOA) and until a few years ago, water has not been considered as a scarce commodity. In addition to this, they do not have the history and culture of Spain on issues related to their management, planning and governance. Now, they have begun to establish laws and regulations, as well as, an Association of Consortia of Public Water Users, needing external advice. Therefore, it is necessary, to train technicians in water resources capable of working in areas related to their planning and sustainable management, with knowledge related to the quality required by users. These technicians could be integrated, both in the responsible water administrations', as well as, in private companies. The project that is the object of this paper is based on preparing a double master 's degree, in which the training needs of the students graduated of Spanish and Argentina Engineering Schools are taken into account. ; Peer Reviewed

Abstract. Hail is a serious concern for agriculture on the Iberian Peninsula. Hailstorms affect crop yield and/or quality to a degree that depends on the crop species and the phenological time. In Europe, Spain is one of the countries that experience relatively high agricultural losses related to hailstorms. It is of high interest to study models that can support calculations of the probabilities of economic losses due to hail damage and of the tendency over time for such losses. Some studies developed in France and the Netherdlands show that the summer mean temperature was highly correlated with a yearly hail severity index developed from hail-related parameters obtained for insurance purposes. Meanwhile, other studies in the USA point out that a highly significant correlation between both is not possible to find due to high climatic variability. The aim of this work is to test the correlation between average minimum temperatures and hail damage intensity over the Spanish Iberian Peninsula. With this purpose, correlation analyses on both variables were performed for the 47 Spanish provinces (as individuals and single set) and for all crops and four individual crops: grapes, wheat, barley and winter grains. Suitable crop insurance data are available from 1981 until 2007 and based on this period, temperature data were obtained. This study does not confirm the results previously obtained for France and the Netherlands that relate observed hail damage to the average minimum temperature. The reason for this difference and the nature of the cases observed are discussed.

The Amazon basin is the world's largest rainforest and the most biologically diverse place on Earth. Despite the critical importance of this region, Amazon forests continue inexorably to be degraded and deforested for various reasons, mainly a consequence of agricultural expansion. The development of novel policy strategies that provide balanced solutions, associating economic growth and environmental protection, is still challenging, largely because the perspective of those most affected- local stakeholders- is often ignored. Participatory Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (FCM) was implemented to examine stakeholder perceptions towards the sustainable development of two agricultural-forest frontier areas in the Bolivian and Brazilian Amazon. A series of development scenarios and a climate change scenario were explored and applied to stakeholder derived FCM. Stakeholders in both regions perceived landscapes of socio-economic impoverishment and environmental degradation driven by governmental and institutional deficiencies. Under such abject conditions, governance and well-integrated social and technological strategies offered socio-economic development, environmental conservation, and resilience to climatic changes. The results suggest the benefits of a new type of thinking for development strategies in the Amazon basin, and that continued application of traditional development policies reduce the resilience of the Amazon to climate change, whilst limiting socio-economic development and environmental conservation.

Abstract. The Amazon basin is the world's largest rainforest and the most biologically
diverse place on Earth. Despite the critical importance of this region,
Amazon forests continue inexorably to be degraded and deforested for various
reasons, mainly a consequence of agricultural expansion. The development of
novel policy strategies that provide balanced solutions, associating
economic growth with environmental protection, is still challenging, largely
because the perspective of those most affected – local stakeholders – is often
ignored. Participatory fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM) was implemented to
examine stakeholder perceptions towards the sustainable development of two
agricultural-forest frontier areas in the Bolivian and Brazilian Amazon. A
series of development scenarios were explored and applied to stakeholder-derived FCM, with climate change also analysed. Stakeholders in both regions
perceived landscapes of socio-economic impoverishment and environmental
degradation driven by governmental and institutional deficiencies. Under
such abject conditions, governance and well-integrated social and
technological strategies offered socio-economic development, environmental
conservation, and resilience to climatic changes. The results suggest there are
benefits of a new type of thinking for development strategies in the Amazon
basin and that continued application of traditional development policies
reduces the resilience of the Amazon to climate change, whilst limiting
socio-economic development and environmental conservation.

The Amazon basin is the world's largest rainforest and the most biologically diverse place on Earth. Despite the critical importance of this region, Amazon forests continue inexorably to be degraded and deforested for various reasons, mainly a consequence of agricultural expansion. The development of novel policy strategies that provide balanced solutions, associating economic growth with environmental protection, is still challenging, largely because the perspective of those most affected – local stakeholders – is often ignored. Participatory fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM) was implemented to examine stakeholder perceptions towards the sustainable development of two agricultural-forest frontier areas in the Bolivian and Brazilian Amazon. A series of development scenarios were explored and applied to stakeholder-derived FCM, with climate change also analysed. Stakeholders in both regions perceived landscapes of socio-economic impoverishment and environmental degradation driven by governmental and institutional deficiencies. Under such abject conditions, governance and wellintegrated social and technological strategies offered socioeconomic development, environmental conservation, and resilience to climatic changes. The results suggest there are benefits of a new type of thinking for development strategies in the Amazon basin and that continued application of traditional development policies reduces the resilience of the Amazon to climate change, whilst limiting socio-economic development and environmental conservation.