1. Introduction -- 2. The Rational Model of Mediation -- 3. The Rational Model of Mediation : a Quantitative analysis -- 4. The Rational Model of Mediation : the Egyptian-Israeli conflict, 1948-1979 -- 5. The Rational Model of Mediation : the Indian-Pakistani conflict, 1947-2002 -- 6. The Rational Model of Mediation and the Egyptian-Israeli and Indian-Pakistani conflicts : a comparative analysis -- 7. Conclusions.
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AbstractIn this paper, we focus on mediation in intrastate conflicts, specifically on the impact of rebel group goals on the prospects for mediation. We ask whether the goals for which rebel groups fight (i.e. secession, irredentism, autonomy, greater political rights, government overthrow) have an impact on the likelihood that these conflicts will be mediated. We test our hypotheses on a new data set of rebel groups in Africa 1962–2010.
Abstract The emergence of civil wars as the predominant type of conflict in the twenty-first century has prompted scholars to reformulate and revisit many of the questions treated in the interstate conflict literature. One of these questions concerns the impact of leadership changes on policy decisions within the realm of war and peace. Studies have suggested that in interstate disputes, the coming to power of new leaders in one or both of the disputing governments increases the prospects of war termination. We argue that within the context of intrastate disputes this relationship is more complex and multilayered due to factors that are characteristic of rebel groups and civil wars. We suggest that leader overturns in rebel groups are likely to lead, under certain conditions to more, rather than less, hardline conflict positions, at least in the short term, thus hindering possible negotiation processes. We test our hypothesis on a dataset of leadership changes and agreements ending civil wars in Africa, 1975–2007.
The Oxford Handbook of Behavioral Political Science examines the factors that help to explain the political decisions and behavior of individuals, leaders, and states. What motivates individuals to participate in elections? What factors influence their support for a particular individual or political party? What are the cognitive, motivational, emotional, and psychological processes that go into leaders' decisions regarding war and peace? Does biology play a role in political orientation? Integrating ideas from different fields, such as economics, psychology, and communications the work in the Handbook provides a deep view into the thinking processes and behavior of decision makers.
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"This handbook is currently in development, with individual articles publishing online in advance of print publication. At this time, we cannot add information about unpublished articles in this handbook, however the table of contents will continue to grow as additional articles pass through the review process and are added to the site. Please note that the online publication date for this handbook is the date that the first article in the title was published online."
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This handbook is currently in development, with individual articles publishing online in advance of print publication. At this time, we cannot add information about unpublished articles in this handbook, however the table of contents will continue to grow as additional articles pass through the review process and are added to the site. Please note that the online publication date for this handbook is the date that the first article in the title was published online.
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Leaders and leadership changes are found to influence states' foreign policy decisions, in particular with respect to war and peace between states. Although this issue is also addressed in the qualitative literature on intrastate wars, the influence of leadership turnovers in civil war has received limited systematic attention. One reason for this is the scarcity of quantitative data on rebel group leaderships. To fill this gap, we present a comprehensive dataset on leadership changes in rebel groups, 1946–2010, organized by rebel-month. The effects of leadership changes among parties engaged in civil war are argued to be more complex than those found in interstate disputes. In this article we present our theoretical argument followed by presentation of the variables in the dataset and descriptive statistics. To demonstrate the potential research value of the dataset we examine the impact of leader shifts on civil war settlement in Africa. We conclude with avenues for future research which might benefit from this dataset.
Leaders and leadership changes are found to influence states' foreign policy decisions, in particular with respect to war and peace between states. Although this issue is also addressed in the qualitative literature on intrastate wars, the influence of leadership turnovers in civil war has received limited systematic attention. One reason for this is the scarcity of quantitative data on rebel group leaderships. To fill this gap, we present a comprehensive dataset on leadership changes in rebel groups, 1946–2010, organized by rebel-month. The effects of leadership changes among parties engaged in civil war are argued to be more complex than those found in interstate disputes. In this article we present our theoretical argument followed by presentation of the variables in the dataset and descriptive statistics. To demonstrate the potential research value of the dataset we examine the impact of leader shifts on civil war settlement in Africa. We conclude with avenues for future research which might benefit from this dataset.
