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AbstractThis article examines the long-run effects of forced migration on economic development in the origin economy, using Czechoslovakia's expulsion of three million Germans after WWII. For identification, I use the discontinuity in ethnic composition at the border of the Sudetenland region where Germans lived. Germans had similar characteristics to Czechs, bypassing factors driving effects in other cases of forced migration, such as differences in human capital. The expulsion produced persistent disparities in population density, sector composition and educational attainment. I trace effects to selective initial resettlements and capital extraction following the expulsion, culminating in urban decay and human capital decline.

Religious communities are important providers of social insurance. We show that risk associated with oil dependence facilitated the proliferation of religious communities throughout the U.S. South during the twentieth century. Known oil abundance predicts higher rates of church membership, which are not driven by selective migration or local economic development. Consistent with a social insurance channel, greater oil price volatility increases effects, while greater access to credit, state-level social insurance, and private insurance crowd out effects. Religious communities limit spillovers of oil price shocks across sectors, reducing increases in unemployment following a negative shock by about 30 percent.