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PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to develop a quantitative model which helps enterprise resource planning (ERP) implementers in Egypt to predict their implementation success as a function of achieved critical success factors and the organizational culture.Design/methodology/approachA conceptual framework is formulated and operationalized based on existing literature and a series of interviews with key persons involved in ERP implementation in Egypt. A cross‐sectional survey involving 45 ERP implementers is conducted to collect data used to fit the developed model.FindingsHalf the surveyed ERP implementations are considered failures according to the research success metrics. While the critical success factors positively contribute to the success of an ERP implementation, the Egyptian organizational culture hinders its progress. The concept of integration provided by ERP systems is considered relatively new to the Egyptian organizations.Research limitations/implicationsThe surveyed sample size is considered relatively small, which partially restricts the generalization of results to the whole population of ERP Egyptian adopters. Future research will involve combining detailed case studies and a larger survey.Practical implicationsERP adopters should periodically evaluate their implementation process using risk analysis tools for ensuring optimum benefits and avoiding any problems that may occur. Furthermore, the Egyptian organizational culture should be carefully considered while implementing an off‐shelf ERP system.Originality/valueThis paper research adds to the growing body of knowledge on ERP implementations, a study of ERP implementation in the Egyptian settings. For practitioners, it provides ERP adopters with a self‐evaluation tool that helps them to monitor and predict the likelihood of project success.