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Acknowledgements; Contents; List of Figures; List of Tables; List of Symbols; List of Abbreviations; 1 | Introduction; 2 | Fuzzy Theory; 3 | Applications of Fuzzy Theory in Insurance; 4 | Methods of Claims Reserving; 5 | The Fuzzy Chain-Ladder Model -- An Approach with Fuzzy Numbers; 6 | Another Fuzzy Chain-Ladder Model -An Application of Fuzzy Regression Techniques; 7 | The Fuzzy Bornhuetter Ferguson Method; 8 | Conclusion; A | Statistical Basics; Zusammenfassung; Summary; Bibliography.

Despite good macroeconomic performance in the last decades (1997-2009), rural poverty remains very high in rural Madagascar. Two thirds of the rural population lives below the poverty line. Concerned with this situation, the Malagasy government has put rural poverty reduction as an important policy objective since the 2000s. However, the lack of an accurate diagnosis poverty determinants, namely on the underlying dynamics at work has led to very general policies. This policy are likely to miss their objectives since they are not enough specific of the rural Malagasy areas situation. Efficient poverty reduction policies need accurate evaluations of the causes of poverty persistence. This thesis proposes to fill, at least partially, the gap by providing in depth analysis of Malagasy rural poverty dynamics. The first chapter presents the recent Malagasy context and highlights the need for a deeper analysis of the cause of Malagasy rural poverty. The second chapter exploits dynamics methods to identify households that are more likely associated to a chronic or a transient form of poverty. This chapter also tests if poverty is likely to create a vicious circle and to lead to poverty traps. The second and third chapters focus on the role of risk in rural poverty persistence. The second chapter shows that climatic shocks have long-term impacts on households' growth prospects while the third chapter show risk have important consequences on households' income and consumption behaviours. Neglecting the role of risk on households' behaviours is likely to decrease the impacts of others incentives, namely productivity-enhancing incentives provided by current Malagasy rural development policies. Our analysis thus provides rationales for decision makers to allocate more resources to risk- management tools in poverty reduction policies. ; (AGRO 3) -- UCL, 2011

Despite good macroeconomic performance in the last decades (1997-2009), rural poverty remains very high in rural Madagascar. Two thirds of the rural population lives below the poverty line. Concerned with this situation, the Malagasy government has put rural poverty reduction as an important policy objective since the 2000s. However, the lack of an accurate diagnosis poverty determinants, namely on the underlying dynamics at work has led to very general policies. This policy are likely to miss their objectives since they are not enough specific of the rural Malagasy areas situation. Efficient poverty reduction policies need accurate evaluations of the causes of poverty persistence. This thesis proposes to fill, at least partially, the gap by providing in depth analysis of Malagasy rural poverty dynamics. The first chapter presents the recent Malagasy context and highlights the need for a deeper analysis of the cause of Malagasy rural poverty. The second chapter exploits dynamics methods to identify households that are more likely associated to a chronic or a transient form of poverty. This chapter also tests if poverty is likely to create a vicious circle and to lead to poverty traps. The second and third chapters focus on the role of risk in rural poverty persistence. The second chapter shows that climatic shocks have long-term impacts on households' growth prospects while the third chapter show risk have important consequences on households' income and consumption behaviours. Neglecting the role of risk on households' behaviours is likely to decrease the impacts of others incentives, namely productivity-enhancing incentives provided by current Malagasy rural development policies. Our analysis thus provides rationales for decision makers to allocate more resources to risk- management tools in poverty reduction policies. ; (AGRO 3) -- UCL, 2011

Actuaries working in claims reserving are often faced, among others, with the following two tasks: the prediction of future outstanding loss liabilities, as well as the quantification of their risk. Within claims reserving there exist various methods in which vagueness and subjective judgement is often not considered. A formal approach is given e.g. by fuzzy set theory. Besides an overview of applications of fuzzy set theory in claims reserving the author presents three ways of how subjective assessment can be implemented in the chain-ladder as well as the Bornhuetter Ferguson method.

BACKGROUND: As the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS, the Global Fund, and the US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief focus on reaching 90-90-90 goals, military health systems are scaling up to meet the data demands of these ambitious objectives. METHODS: Since 2008, the US Department of Defense HIV/AIDS Prevention Program (DHAPP) has been working with military partners in 14 countries on implementation and adoption of a Military eHealth Information Network (MeHIN). Each country implementation plan followed a structured process using international eHealth standards. DHAPP worked with the private sector to develop a commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) electronic medical record (EMR) for the collection of data, including patient demographic information, clinical notes for general medical care, HIV encounters, voluntary medical male circumcision, and tuberculosis screening information. RESULTS: The COTS software approach provided a zero-dollar software license and focused on sharing a single version of the EMR across countries, so that all countries could benefit from software enhancements and new features over time. DHAPP also worked with the public sector to modify open source disease surveillance tools and open access of HIV training materials. Important lessons highlight challenges to eHealth implementation, including a paucity of technology infrastructure, military leadership rotations, and the need for basic computer skills building. CONCLUSION: While not simple, eHealth systems can be built and maintained with requisite security, flexibility, and reporting capabilities that provide critical information to improve the health of individuals and organizations.

Preventing HIV infection is a priority for militaries. HIV prevention research is needed to monitor existing programs, identify areas for modification, and develop new interventions. Correct and consistent condom use is highly effective against HIV. However, use among soldiers is lower than ideal. This study describes condom use behaviors and examines correlates of use in the Botswana Defence Force (BDF). Analyses were based on 211 male personnel, aged 18–30, who completed a cross-sectional survey that collected baseline data for an intervention study. Results showed that 51% of participants reported always using condoms, 35% used condoms most times, and 14% used condoms occasionally/never. Condom use varied by partner type and was typically higher with casual partners in comparison to regular partners. After adjustment for age and marital status, factors associated with lower condom use included excessive alcohol use, perception that using condoms reduce sexual pleasure, and having a trusted partner. However, higher levels of HIV knowledge and reports of being circumcised were protective against lower condom use. HIV interventions aimed at increasing condom use in the BDF should address condom perceptions, alcohol abuse, and issues of trust. Innovative ways to increase condom use in this population should also be explored.

Free condoms provided by the government are often not used by Botswana Defence Force (BDF) personnel due to a perceived unpleasant scent and unattractive wrapper. Formative work with the BDF found that scented condoms and military inspired (camouflage) wrapper graphics were appealing to personnel. A non-randomized intervention study was implemented to determine if condom wrapper graphics and scent improved condom use in the BDF. Four military sites were selected for participation. Two sites in the south received the intervention condom wrapped in a generic wrapper and two sites in the north received the intervention condom wrapped in a military inspired wrapper; intervention condoms were either scented or unscented. 211 male soldiers who ever had sex, aged 18–30 years, and stationed at one of the selected sites consented to participate. Sexual activity and condom use were measured pre- and post-intervention using sexual behavior diaries. A condom use rate (CUR; frequency of protected sex divided by total frequency of sex) was computed for each participant. Mean CURs significantly increased over time (85.7% baseline vs. 94.5% post-intervention). Adjusted odds of condom use over time were higher among participants who received the intervention condom packaged in the military wrapper compared with the generic wrapper. Adjusted odds of condom use were also higher for participants who reported using scented versus unscented condoms. Providing scented condoms and condoms packaged in a miltiary inspired wrapper may help increase condom use and reduce HIV infection among military personnel.

HIV rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) combined in an algorithm are the current standard for HIV diagnosis in many sub-Saharan African countries, and extensive laboratory testing has confirmed HIV RDTs have excellent sensitivity and specificity. However, false-positive RDT algorithm results have been reported due to a variety of factors, such as suboptimal quality assurance procedures and inaccurate interpretation of results. We conducted HIV serosurveys in seven sub-Saharan African military populations and recorded the frequency of personnel self-reporting HIV positivity, but subsequently testing HIV-negative during the serosurvey. The frequency of individuals who reported they were HIV-positive but subsequently tested HIV-negative using RDT algorithms ranged from 3.3 to 91.1%, suggesting significant rates of prior false-positive HIV RDT algorithm results, which should be confirmed using biological testing across time in future studies. Simple measures could substantially reduce false-positive results, such as greater adherence to quality assurance guidelines and prevalence-specific HIV testing algorithms as described in the World Health Organization's HIV testing guidelines. Other measures to improve RDT algorithm specificity include classifying individuals with weakly positive test lines as HIV indeterminate and retesting. While expansion of HIV testing in resource-limited countries is critical to identifying HIV-infected individuals for appropriate care and treatment, careful attention to potential causes of false HIV-positive results are needed to prevent the significant medical, psychological, and fiscal costs resulting from individuals receiving a false-positive HIV diagnosis.